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Ever notice how the most educated people sometimes hold the most extreme views? A fascinating study revealed that individuals with higher scientific literacy weren't more moderate about climate change-they were actually more likely to hold extreme positions in either direction. This counterintuitive finding exposes a fundamental flaw in how we think: intelligence doesn't protect us from bias; it often amplifies it. We use our smarts to defend what we already believe rather than discover what's actually true. The real barrier to clear thinking isn't lack of knowledge-it's our inability to say three simple words: "I don't know." We confuse facts (scientifically verifiable truths) with beliefs (things we hold true without easy verification). This distinction becomes stark when examining how 84.5% of Maltese believe in the devil compared to just 9.1% of Latvians, or how expert predictions routinely fail. Political forecasters in Philip Tetlock's 20-year study performed barely better than "dart-throwing chimps," achieving 47.4% accuracy. Even Nobel laureate Paul Krugman embarrassingly claimed "the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's." Why do brilliant people make such terrible predictions? Because the personal cost of saying "I don't know" exceeds the cost of being wrong. When Harold Camping predicted the world would end in May 2011, causing widespread panic, he faced zero consequences when his prophecy failed. Bold predictions bring huge rewards if correct, while failures are quickly forgotten.