What is *The Avoidable War* by Kevin Rudd about?

*The Avoidable War* analyzes escalating tensions between the U.S. and China, arguing that conflict is not inevitable despite deepening distrust. Kevin Rudd, a former Australian prime minister, explores Xi Jinping’s worldview, identifies 10 potential flashpoints (like Taiwan), and proposes a framework of “managed strategic competition” to prevent war. The book combines historical analysis, geopolitical forecasting, and policy recommendations aimed at fostering competitive coexistence.

Who should read *The Avoidable War*?

This book is essential for policymakers, students of international relations, and readers interested in U.S.-China relations. It offers insights for professionals in defense, diplomacy, or global business seeking to understand systemic risks and strategies for de-escalation. Rudd’s blend of academic rigor and practical diplomacy makes it accessible to both experts and informed general audiences.

What is “managed strategic competition” in *The Avoidable War*?

Rudd’s central concept advocates for structured rivalry where the U.S. and China compete economically and ideologically without military conflict. It involves mutual deterrence, diplomatic channels to manage crises, and agreements to avoid unintended escalation. Critics note the idea lacks detailed implementation steps but praise its focus on coexistence over confrontation.

How does *The Avoidable War* compare to *Destined for War* by Graham Allison?

Unlike Allison’s “Thucydides Trap” framing, which emphasizes historical inevitability, Rudd argues war is preventable through deliberate policy choices. While both analyze U.S.-China rivalry, Rudd prioritizes actionable solutions like transparency measures and crisis hotlines, whereas Allison focuses on historical precedents.

What are the key takeaways from *The Avoidable War*?

- **Distrust drives conflict**: Misperceptions about regime survival and hegemony fuel tensions. - **Taiwan as a flashpoint**: 5 of 10 conflict scenarios involve Taiwan. - **Deterrence + diplomacy**: Combines military preparedness with dialogue to avoid miscalculations. - **Xi’s ideological rigidity**: China’s leader views U.S. containment as an existential threat.

What critiques exist about *The Avoidable War*?

Some experts argue Rudd’s “managed competition” framework is underdeveloped, lacking specifics on enforcement or balancing trade disputes. Others note his analysis of U.S. policymaking oversimplifies partisan dynamics. However, the book is widely praised for its nuanced exploration of Xi’s mindset and accessible synthesis of complex issues.

How does Kevin Rudd analyze Xi Jinping’s worldview in the book?

Rudd identifies 10 “concentric circles” shaping Xi’s ideology, including CCP legitimacy, nationalism, and the belief that the U.S. seeks to block China’s rise. He emphasizes Xi’s focus on total control, historical grievances, and China’s “rightful” global role, arguing these drivers make compromise difficult but not impossible.

What scenarios does *The Avoidable War* outline for U.S.-China conflict?

The book details 10 scenarios, ranked by likelihood: 1. Accidental naval clash in the South China Sea. 2. Crisis over Taiwan’s formal independence declaration. 3. Escalation from cyberattacks or economic coercion. Rudd stresses that none are predestined but require proactive mitigation.

《可避免的戰爭》摘要

美中爆发灾难性冲突的危险

陆克文

4.24(1531 Reviews)

《可避免的戰爭》摘要概述

在《可避免的战争》（*The Avoidable War*）一书中，澳大利亚前总理陆克文（Kevin Rudd）为防止中美灾难提供了权威的路线图。这本书被誉为关于中国关系的最佳单本分析著作，是 2022 年地缘政治领域的必读之作，揭示了“有管理的战略竞争”将如何挽救数百万人的生命。

选择讲述方式

用不同学习方式探索《可避免的戰爭》摘要

来自《可避免的戰爭》的相同理念。选择适合你的声音、深度和节奏，随时切换。

第 1 章

The Great Power Struggle That Could Redefine Our Century

Kevin Rudd's "The Avoidable War" arrives at a critical inflection point in global politics. As tensions between China and the United States escalate to their highest levels in decades, Rudd offers an insider's perspective on what may be the defining geopolitical relationship of our time. The book has become required reading in diplomatic circles and intelligence agencies worldwide, with former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger calling it "the most insightful and compelling analysis of U.S.-China relations available." Drawing on his fluency in Mandarin, decades of diplomatic experience, and personal relationships with leaders including Xi Jinping, Rudd provides a roadmap for navigating what he calls "the decade of living dangerously" - the 2020s, when the risk of conflict between these superpowers has never been higher.

第 2 章

Inside Xi Jinping's Strategic Vision for China and the World

At the heart of China's approach to the United States lies Xi Jinping's unprecedented consolidation of power and his vision for China's future. Unlike his predecessors who followed Deng Xiaoping's cautious maxim to "hide your strength; bide your time; never take the lead," Xi has boldly declared that "time and momentum are on our side." This dramatic shift reflects Xi's confidence in China's rising power and his determination to restore what he sees as China's rightful place in the global order. Xi has methodically eliminated political rivals through an anti-corruption campaign that served both legitimate and political purposes. He has abandoned any pretense of liberalization, tightened party control over business, and stoked nationalist, anti-American sentiment throughout Chinese society. Under his leadership, China has moved away from Deng's market reforms toward a more state-controlled economy while pursuing an increasingly assertive foreign policy. From Washington's perspective, Xi aims to export his political model globally by leveraging China's economic influence. His goal appears to be creating an international system that accommodates Chinese interests and values rather than Western ones. With the removal of presidential term limits in 2018, Xi could potentially remain China's paramount leader well into the 2030s - precisely when China will likely become the world's largest economy, emboldening him to pursue even more ambitious global objectives. Xi's understanding of America exceeds any American leader's understanding of China. He visited the U.S. as a junior official in the 1980s, staying with an Iowa family, and later as vice president hosted by Joe Biden. His daughter attended Harvard. However, Xi neither speaks nor reads English, meaning his understanding comes through official translations and briefings that lack nuance and tend toward negativity - a situation compounded by officials' fear of providing analyses that contradict his worldview.

边听边看，每个词都清晰呈现

轻松跟读，《可避免的戰爭》摘要中的每个词都会随音频实时高亮。

第 3 章

The Dangerous Dance of Great Powers

The relationship between China and the United States has deteriorated dramatically in recent years, creating what Harvard's Graham Allison calls a "Thucydidean dynamic." In Thucydides's analysis of the Peloponnesian War, "it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable." This trap occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, creating structural stress that historically leads to violent conflict. Of the 16 such cases Allison studied over the past 500 years, 12 ended in war. The elements of Thucydides's Trap are already present in today's U.S.-China relationship. China's military modernization extends far beyond Taiwan contingencies, with its expanding navy, submarine capabilities, and first-ever blue-water fleet enabling force projection across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. The People's Liberation Army Navy now possesses the largest naval force in the world by number of ships, including two aircraft carriers with a third under construction. Beijing has established a string of available ports from Southeast Asia to East Africa, known as the "String of Pearls," and conducts increasingly sophisticated joint military exercises with Russia. Chinese technological advances in space, cyber, and AI, coupled with successful intelligence operations penetrating American computer systems and research institutions, have convinced Washington that China's strategic ambitions are both regional and global. This military buildup occurs against a backdrop of deep mutual distrust and competing narratives about international order. Most Americans struggle to understand China's politics and decision-making processes - unsurprising given the linguistic, cultural and philosophical divides. The Chinese Communist Party's opaque nature and centralized control further complicate efforts to interpret Beijing's true intentions. This creates profound uncertainty about what China represents and what its rise means for American interests and global leadership. The deepening chasm of distrust has grown over years, with each side viewing the other's diplomatic language as fiction. Washington no longer believes in China's "peaceful rise," while Beijing rejects American claims it has no interest in "containment." Recent flashpoints - from trade disputes and technology competition to tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea - have only heightened these suspicions. The economic interdependence between the two powers adds another layer of complexity to this relationship. Unlike the Cold War's relatively clear division between the U.S. and Soviet blocs, China and America remain deeply integrated through trade, investment, and global supply chains. This creates what some scholars call "weaponized interdependence," where economic ties can become tools of strategic competition. The challenge for both nations lies in managing this rivalry without triggering the very conflict that historical precedent suggests is likely.

第 4 章

Xi's Concentric Circles of Strategic Interest

To understand China's strategy toward the United States requires placing America within Xi Jinping's broader worldview, which comprises ten concentric circles of interest beginning with his own position in the party and expanding outward through domestic priorities to international aspirations. The first circle is maintaining the Communist Party's power, with Xi determined to secure his position and establish a legacy surpassing Deng Xiaoping's and equaling Mao Zedong's. The second focuses on preserving China's unity and territorial integrity, with Taiwan's "return" representing the final unfinished task from Mao's 1949 revolution. The third prioritizes economic prosperity as essential for maintaining living standards and social stability, while the fourth addresses environmental challenges that have emerged as critical priorities after decades of devastating pollution. The fifth circle involves military modernization, with Xi transforming the PLA from a mass land army into a technologically advanced force capable of rivaling competitors and projecting power beyond China's shores. The sixth focuses on managing China's fourteen neighboring states through political and economic diplomacy to secure accommodating relationships. The seventh aims to secure China's maritime periphery by creating sufficient doubt in American minds about winning any armed conflict in the region. The eighth extends China's influence across the Eurasian continent through initiatives like the Belt and Road. The ninth circle involves building extensive ties in the developing world, where China has made its economic relationships more important than those countries' ties to America through large-scale trade and investment. The final circle aims to reshape the institutional rules and norms governing the international order, challenging American leadership through changing existing norms, installing China-friendly candidates in leadership positions of international institutions, and creating new multilateral institutions outside the UN and Bretton Woods framework.

从《可避免的戰爭》摘要中收获更多

每日获取新洞见，探索 10 万+ 条课程内容
文字实时高亮，与音频同步
保存你的书库，在所有设备上随时访问

第 5 章

The Politics of Staying in Power

Xi Jinping's absolute top priority is ensuring the Communist Party remains permanently in power with himself as paramount leader. Haunted by the Soviet Communist Party's 1991 collapse, Xi is determined to prevent a similar fate in China. He has systematically reversed the trend of party powers migrating to state bureaucracy, bringing the party back to the epicenter of political and economic policy-making while reasserting Marxist-Leninist ideology across Chinese life. This includes mandatory party education in schools, universities, and workplaces, along with the establishment of party committees in private companies and joint ventures. Xi's cornerstone vision is the China Dream, defined by two major milestones: becoming a "moderately prosperous society" by 2021 (achieved by doubling per capita income to $10,000 from 2010 levels) and becoming a fully advanced economy by 2049 (the PRC's centenary) with income levels matching America's. This would achieve what Xi calls "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" - restoring China to its central global role held before the Century of Humiliation. The vision encompasses military modernization, technological self-sufficiency, and cultural influence, aiming to make China a comprehensive global power. Economic growth remains the core of this dream, creating significant tension between Xi's economic objectives and his political goal of maximizing party control. This tension has manifested in increasing state intervention in private businesses, with party secretaries embedded in firms and heated debate over state equity acquisition in successful private companies. The government has implemented a "mixed ownership" model, encouraging state-owned enterprises to acquire stakes in private firms, while also imposing stricter regulatory oversight on key sectors like technology, education, and real estate. The crackdown on Jack Ma and his companies Alibaba and Ant Group in 2020-2021 exemplifies this tension. After Ma's public criticism of financial regulators, authorities suspended Ant Group's IPO, launched antitrust investigations into Alibaba, and imposed record fines. This demonstrated Xi's willingness to subordinate even China's most successful private enterprises to party control, despite risking business confidence, investment, and capital flight that could undermine China's economic growth. Similar regulatory actions against other tech giants like Tencent and Didi have reinforced this message, creating uncertainty in China's private sector. The party has also expanded its surveillance capabilities through social credit systems, facial recognition technology, and digital payment monitoring, ensuring comprehensive oversight of both society and economy. This has been accompanied by an intensified anti-corruption campaign that serves both to clean up governance and eliminate potential political rivals, consolidating Xi's power while maintaining popular support through appeals to nationalism and promises of continued prosperity.

第 6 章

Taiwan: The Most Dangerous Flashpoint

Many Americans underestimate how central Taiwan is to the CCP's priorities and China's view of its relationship with the United States. While often marginal in Washington policy debates, Taiwan remains core to Beijing's concerns. In Beijing's eyes, the U.S. represents the paramount obstacle to completing China's "sacred historical mission" of national unification. This mission dates back to 1949 when the Nationalist forces retreated to Taiwan, creating what Beijing views as an unfinished civil war. The CCP has made the reunification of Taiwan a cornerstone of its "national rejuvenation" campaign and Xi Jinping's "China Dream." The Taiwan situation has grown more volatile since democratization in the 1990s. Beijing's gradualist strategy of economic absorption, which included preferential trade agreements, business investments, and cultural exchanges, suffered a significant setback in 2019 when Hong Kong's autonomy was crushed through the implementation of the national security law. This action effectively destroyed any remaining Taiwanese support for the "one country, two systems" model, which Beijing had proposed as a framework for reunification. Recent polls show that over 80% of Taiwanese reject this model, and support for maintaining the status quo or moving toward independence has strengthened. Xi has concluded the gradualist approach failed, merely giving pro-independence forces time to cultivate nationalist sentiment among younger Taiwanese generations, who increasingly identify as distinctly Taiwanese rather than Chinese. This demographic shift poses a significant challenge to Beijing's reunification goals, as younger Taiwanese show little interest in closer ties with mainland China. After the Democratic Progressive Party's Tsai Ing-wen won reelection in 2020, Xi publicly reaffirmed China's willingness to use force for reunification, warning Taiwan that independence would "only bring profound disaster." He has accelerated military modernization specifically for Taiwan contingencies, including developing amphibious assault capabilities, advanced missile systems, and cyber warfare tools. The People's Liberation Army has increased naval exercises simulating blockades in the Taiwan Strait, with record numbers of aircraft incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone. Beijing has also launched aggressive diplomatic campaigns to isolate Taiwan internationally, pressuring countries to cut formal ties and blocking Taiwan's participation in international organizations like the WHO. Xi is likely working on a timeline to secure Taiwan during his political lifetime - possibly by the mid-2030s - making Beijing's approach increasingly hard-line throughout the 2020s. This timeline aligns with the PLA's modernization goals and China's broader strategic objectives. Military analysts suggest that China's military capabilities for a Taiwan invasion will reach their peak around 2027-2035, creating a dangerous window of opportunity that could tempt Beijing to act, especially if they perceive weakness in U.S. commitment to Taiwan's defense or internal political instability in Taiwan itself.

边听边看，每个词都清晰呈现

轻松跟读，《可避免的戰爭》摘要中的每个词都会随音频实时高亮。

第 7 章

China's Military Transformation Under Xi

Xi Jinping views military strength as the ultimate linchpin of China's future power, declaring: "Without a strong military, the country can neither be safe nor strong." Unlike his predecessors, Xi has launched fundamental reforms to transform the PLA from an antiquated Mao-era force focused on continental defense into a high-tech military capable of projecting air and naval power beyond China's shores. Xi's 2015 military strategy document marks a significant shift with four major elements: embracing informationized warfare across all domains; emphasizing integrated joint operations; elevating naval power in China's strategy; and extending China's maritime operations beyond "near seas" to "open seas" and "far seas" as part of a new forward defense strategy. This approach fundamentally transforms the PLA from its historical focus on internal security to projecting power beyond China's shores, directly challenging American naval dominance in the western Pacific. The 2015 strategy declares "the traditional mentality that land outweighs sea must be abandoned," calling instead for "highlighting maritime military struggle." This doctrinal shift extends China's military reach to the mid-Pacific through antiaccess/area denial strategies against US forces, while securing sea lines of communication and protecting Chinese interests abroad. China commissioned its first domestically-built aircraft carrier in 2019, with four more planned by 2035. Xi has placed information technology at the center of military strategy, emphasizing long-range smart weapons, unmanned equipment, and cyberspace as "the commanding heights in strategic competition." He has also rapidly accelerated China's offensive and defensive cyber capabilities and declared China's ambition to become "a major global space player by around 2030" and the "global leader in space equipment and technology by 2045."

第 8 章

America's Strategic Awakening

The history of the twentieth century demonstrates that American power, once fully awakened and harnessed, can be formidable. Following Xi Jinping's strategic shifts, evidence suggests America has begun to stir from what Rudd calls its "strategic slumber." Politicians taking a hard line on China now enjoy broad public support, with 76 percent of Americans holding unfavorable views of China in 2021 - a historic high, up from just 40 percent in 2012. A bipartisan 63 percent identify China as a critical threat to America's vital interests, while the number of Americans labeling China their greatest enemy doubled in a single year to 45 percent. In 2018, Foreign Affairs published "The China Reckoning" by Kurt Campbell and Ely Ratner, both former Obama officials who would later join the Biden administration. The article captured Washington's profound shift - a shattering of the consensus on engagement with China. By Trump's first year in office, this coalesced into a new strategic consensus embodied in three key documents that explicitly rejected the decades-old assumption that supporting China's rise would liberalize it, instead declaring China a "rival" seeking "to displace the United States in the Indo-Pacific region." When President Biden took office in January 2021, he demonstrated striking continuity in both the strategic thrust and many details of Trump's approach to China, while moderating the rhetorical tone and launching a diplomatic offensive to reassure allies that America remained reliable. This confirms that U.S.-China relations have entered a radically different era compared to pre-2017, regardless of which party holds power in Washington.

从《可避免的戰爭》摘要中收获更多

每日获取新洞见，探索 10 万+ 条课程内容
文字实时高亮，与音频同步
保存你的书库，在所有设备上随时访问

第 9 章

The Decade of Living Dangerously

Rudd presents multiple scenarios for how U.S.-China relations might unfold by 2030, ranging from Chinese military action against Taiwan to a new Cold War standoff. The sobering reality is that five of the ten scenarios involve major armed conflict. Wars radically change history in unpredictable ways, as evidenced by the collapse of empires after World War I, the rise of fascism and Bolshevism in the 1920s and 1930s, and the chaotic interwar period that reshaped global power dynamics. The Spanish Civil War and Japan's invasion of China in the 1930s similarly demonstrated how regional conflicts can rapidly escalate into global confrontations. One of the most likely unintentional conflict scenarios could arise from collision between Chinese and American naval vessels in the South China Sea, where several near misses have already occurred. In 2018 alone, the USS Decatur came within 45 yards of a Chinese destroyer, while multiple other incidents involved dangerous maneuvers and aggressive positioning. Despite bilateral protocols to manage incidents, such as the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) and the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA), collisions causing vessel sinking or loss of life could trigger rapid escalation. The proliferation of Chinese coast guard, customs, fisheries, and intelligence vessels engaged in "gray-zone" activities exponentially increases the probability of incidents. These vessels often operate under ambiguous command structures and with unclear rules of engagement, creating additional layers of risk. Xi's optimal scenario would see China achieving regional and global preeminence by decade's end without firing a shot. Under this "peaceful rise" strategy, America and its allies would conclude that China's momentum was unstoppable without crippling expenditure of blood and treasure. This scenario depends on three critical variables: success of China's economic model adjustment from export-led growth to domestic consumption, closing the technology gap with America in crucial sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence, and America's inability to rebuild its power and harness allies into an effective counterbalancing coalition. China's Belt and Road Initiative, military modernization program, and diplomatic efforts in the Global South all support this strategic vision of displacing American influence through primarily non-military means. The increasing militarization of space and cyberspace adds new dimensions of risk, as does the integration of artificial intelligence into military systems. These technological developments could lead to faster escalation cycles and reduced human decision-making time in crisis situations. Additionally, the competition for critical resources, including rare earth minerals and semiconductor manufacturing capacity, creates potential flashpoints beyond traditional territorial disputes.

第 10 章

The Case for Managed Strategic Competition

Rudd argues that the best way forward may be a framework of managed strategic competition anchored in three core propositions: First, both sides must understand each other's strategic redlines to prevent conflict through miscalculation. Second, they should channel rivalry into competition for military, economic, and technological capabilities, deterring armed conflict while maximizing their appeal globally. Third, this framework would create space for strategic cooperation in defined areas of mutual interest. Despite widespread skepticism, the U.S. and China need procedures and mechanisms similar to those established between the U.S. and Soviet Union after the Cuban Missile Crisis - preferably without first experiencing a near-death confrontation. This framework would establish hard limits on security policies while allowing full competition diplomatically, economically, and ideologically. Building this framework requires identifying immediate steps for substantive dialogue and agreeing to hard limits. Both sides could abstain from cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. Washington could return to strictly adhering to the One-China policy, while Beijing could reduce provocative military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. China could commit to not reclaiming or militarizing more islands in the South China Sea and respect freedom of navigation, allowing the U.S. to reduce operations there. Within agreed guardrails, both sides would continue competing for strategic and economic influence globally. Despite competition, space would remain for cooperation in critical areas, as occurred between the U.S. and Soviet Union during the Cold War. Beyond climate change collaboration, the countries could conduct nuclear arms control negotiations, work on North Korean nuclear disarmament, prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, undertake regional confidence-building measures, improve global financial stability, and jointly build better vaccine distribution systems for developing nations.

边听边看，每个词都清晰呈现

轻松跟读，《可避免的戰爭》摘要中的每个词都会随音频实时高亮。

第 11 章

A Call for Strategic Wisdom

The underpinning logic of managed strategic competition may appear contradictory, as it provides both China and the United States opportunities to advance their respective objectives. But that's precisely the point - for any framework to effectively reduce conflict risk, it must be balanced and acceptable to both capitals. While imperfect, this approach presents only two alternatives: managed competition with clear rules and peace prospects, or unmanaged competition with no guardrails and growing risks of crisis, conflict, or war. Historical examples like the Cold War demonstrate how established protocols and communication channels, even between adversaries, can prevent catastrophic escalation. Few armchair strategists have seriously contemplated the human cost of a U.S.-China conflict - the deaths of Chinese, American and Taiwanese service members and civilians - or how the CCP would see itself fighting for survival, potentially escalating to weapons of mass destruction. Military simulations suggest casualties could reach into the hundreds of thousands within days. Economic modeling indicates that even a limited conflict could trigger a global depression, disrupting supply chains and devastating Asian economies. There's no guarantee any war would remain limited, as preemption or rapid escalation incentives could prove irresistible during crisis. The interconnected nature of modern economies and military technologies makes containment particularly challenging. This deeply realist approach accepts strategic realities rather than wishing them away. It doesn't rely on trust but on minimum rules with clear guidance and verification processes, similar to arms control agreements of the past. Practical measures could include military-to-military hotlines, cyber incident protocols, and crisis communication mechanisms. Regular strategic dialogues between senior officials can help manage tensions before they escalate. However, if successful in delivering strategic stability, new trust levels may emerge through experience, potentially leading to new modes of thinking about each other. Common global challenges like climate change, pandemics, and technological disruption might assume greater importance as interstate rivalry subsides. Both nations have demonstrated capacity for cooperation on specific issues, as seen in joint climate commitments and pandemic response efforts. But first we must navigate through this most dangerous decade of the 2020s, where technological advancement, military modernization, and geopolitical tensions create unprecedented risks. Success requires not just diplomatic skill but strategic patience and wisdom from both sides to recognize their mutual interest in avoiding catastrophic conflict.

★★★★★

你已读完《可避免的戰爭》摘要

“坚持使用 23 天了，我每天都会打开它。它现在已经成为我的日常习惯。”

jayallen

《可避免的戰爭》摘要中的核心主题

us-china strategic competition
thucydides trap
xi jinping's worldview
managed strategic alignment
indo-pacific security dynamics

《可避免的戰爭》摘要精选金句

Xi's understanding of America exceeds any American leader's understanding of China.
Washington no longer believes in China's peaceful rise.
The deepening chasm of distrust has grown over years, with each side viewing the other's diplomatic language as fiction.
The challenge for both nations lies in managing this rivalry without triggering the very conflict that historical precedent suggests is likely.

《可避免的戰爭》摘要中的人物

Kevin RuddAuthor, former diplomat, and expert on China
Xi JinpingPresident of China and General Secretary of CCP
Deng XiaopingFormer Chinese leader known for market reforms
Joe BidenU.S. leader who hosted Xi during his vice presidency
Graham AllisonHarvard scholar who defined the Thucydides's Trap

关于作者

《可避免的战争》（The Avoidable War）的作者陆克文（Kevin Michael Rudd）是一位澳大利亚外交官、前总理，也是地缘政治战略和美中关系领域的权威专家。陆克文曾担任澳大利亚第26任总理（2007–2010年，2013年），现任澳大利亚驻美国大使。他凭借数十年的国际外交经验，包括流利的中文能力和对中国政治的深厚专业知识，撰写了此书。

他的著作是对全球权力动态的敏锐分析，反映了他职业生涯长期以来对预防冲突和多边合作的关注，这得益于他的中国研究学术背景以及在2007-2008年金融危机期间展现的危机领导力。

陆克文的见解经常出现在《金融时报》（The Financial Times）、《纽约时报》（The New York Times）以及英国广播公司（BBC）和美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）等主流媒体网络上。他还是《论习近平：习氏马克思主义民族主义如何改变中国与世界》（On Xi Jinping: How Xi’s Marxist Nationalism is Changing China and the World）一书的作者，该书进一步扩展了他对当代中国治理的分析。作为哈佛大学肯尼迪学院的高级研究员和亚洲协会政策研究院（Asia Society Policy Institute）的荣休院长，陆克文将严谨的学术研究与现实世界的决策经验相结合。《可避免的战争》因其为应对日益紧张的全球局势提供的可操作性框架而广受赞誉，巩固了陆克文作为21世纪地缘政治卓越发声者的声誉。

下载《可避免的戰爭》摘要

免费获取《可避免的戰爭》摘要的 PDF 或 EPUB 版本。可打印或随时离线阅读。

用户还喜欢

Graham Allison

H. R. McMaster

Ian Bremmer

David E. Sanger

Richard Haass

Don't Wait for the Next War

Wesley K. Clark

Dealing with China

Henry M. Paulson

The United States and Military Intervention: A Troubling Legacy

Iraq and the Pathologies of Primacy: The Flawed Logic That Produced the War Is Alive and Well

6 sources

Wars America Should Have Avoided

关于《可避免的戰爭》摘要的常见问题

该学习计划的一部分

学习计划

South & East Asia Geopolitics Study Plan

5 h 15 m•4 集数

学习计划

Pacific Geopolitics Learning Plan

4 h 21 m•4 集数

发现更多

学习计划

The Beijing Backchannel: Nixon and Kissinger's Secret Opening

This plan provides a masterclass in high-stakes diplomacy, detailing how Nixon and Kissinger bypassed traditional bureaucracy to reshape the global order. It is essential for aspiring diplomats, historians, and strategic leaders interested in the mechanics of secret negotiations and geopolitical pivot points.

30 m•3 章节

学习计划

China's 2035 Tech Sovereignty Roadmap

This learning plan is essential for policy analysts, investors, and tech strategists tracking global power shifts. It provides a critical look at how China navigates geopolitical constraints and internal economic pressures to achieve its 2035 vision.

1 h 30 m•3 章节

学习计划

The Pessimist's Guide to Peace

This plan is essential for high-achievers and seekers who feel exhausted by the endless pursuit of status and external validation. It provides a grounded, realistic framework for finding tranquility by confronting the inherent discomforts of the human condition.

1 h 30 m•3 章节

学习计划

The Blueprint of Imperial Collapse

This learning plan is essential for strategic thinkers, historians, and policy analysts seeking to understand the mechanics of state failure. It provides a rigorous framework for identifying systemic rot and adapting to the technological disruptions that redefine global power.

1 h 12 m•3 章节

学习计划

The Strategic Logic of Surprise

This plan is essential for military historians and strategic analysts seeking to understand the intersection of economic pressure and preemptive doctrine. It provides a deep dive into the geopolitical and psychological factors that lead to decisive, high-stakes military surprises.

1 h 12 m•3 章节

学习计划

The Boring Path to Prosperity

This plan is essential for investors who want to move beyond market hype and understand the structural foundations of wealth. It is ideal for Australians and global learners seeking to combine historical financial literacy with practical, low-risk portfolio management.

1 h 30 m•4 章节

学习计划

Understand china history

This plan offers a vital perspective on China's trajectory from an ancient empire to a modern global leader. It is ideal for students, professionals, and history enthusiasts seeking to understand the historical forces driving today's geopolitical landscape.

5 h 35 m•4 章节

学习计划

36 Strategies of Power: A War Manual

This course bridges the gap between ancient wisdom and modern survival, offering a deep dive into the mechanics of influence and tactical superiority. It is essential for leaders, entrepreneurs, and strategists who need to navigate high-stakes environments where psychological insight and political acumen are the primary tools for success.

6 h 4 m•4 章节

由哥伦比亚大学校友创建 | 源自旧金山

BeFreed 汇聚全球求知若渴的学习者

4.7

平均评分

7,840+ 条 App 评分

BeFreed 社区

说真的，我还没把这个 app 完全摸透，但用了这几天已经被惊艳到了… BeFreed 和我用过的任何学习类 app 都不在一个层级。它让人特别投入，还能实实在在地提升专注力，对刷手机停不下来的人来说太合适了！

@ladyInfinity

我买 BeFreed 正好 23 天，从那以后每天都在用。它已经完全融入了我的日常工作流和学习习惯。

@jayallen

说实话，这个 app 超出了我所有的预期。我可以让它就任何主题生成音频，无论是什么，效果都很惊艳。我的专业领域是心理治疗方向，而且是多学科交叉的，但它给出的内容非常准确。

@Raguipa

我最感激的是它大大减少了我刷手机的时间——花在搜索上的时间少了，吸收信息的时间多了。完整有声书、播客加上学习计划的组合，真的很出色。

@colonyofcreatorsNGO

我做 PhotoReading 快速学习讲师已经 24 年了… 书籍、阅读和学习就是我的本行，而 BeFreed 用一种创新的方式，把知识变得特别容易吸收，做得非常出色。

@BeFreed user

它不只是一个书籍摘要 app。我用过「有趣」这个阅读模式，比传统方式的摘要好得多，理解观点也更容易，光这一点就值回票价。

@austinakon

我爱这个 app。用了几天，完全停不下来。作为开始，再好不过了。

@jcrules328

我真的很喜欢这个产品；已经试用了大概一个月，感觉挖到宝了。它特别好用，因为我可以用 BeFreed 创建自己想学的主题，声音也很棒，旁白选择多到用不完。

@DanielCZ

说真的，我还没把这个 app 完全摸透，但用了这几天已经被惊艳到了… BeFreed 和我用过的任何学习类 app 都不在一个层级。它让人特别投入，还能实实在在地提升专注力，对刷手机停不下来的人来说太合适了！

@ladyInfinity

我买 BeFreed 正好 23 天，从那以后每天都在用。它已经完全融入了我的日常工作流和学习习惯。

@jayallen

说实话，这个 app 超出了我所有的预期。我可以让它就任何主题生成音频，无论是什么，效果都很惊艳。我的专业领域是心理治疗方向，而且是多学科交叉的，但它给出的内容非常准确。

@Raguipa

我最感激的是它大大减少了我刷手机的时间——花在搜索上的时间少了，吸收信息的时间多了。完整有声书、播客加上学习计划的组合，真的很出色。

@colonyofcreatorsNGO

我做 PhotoReading 快速学习讲师已经 24 年了… 书籍、阅读和学习就是我的本行，而 BeFreed 用一种创新的方式，把知识变得特别容易吸收，做得非常出色。

@BeFreed user

它不只是一个书籍摘要 app。我用过「有趣」这个阅读模式，比传统方式的摘要好得多，理解观点也更容易，光这一点就值回票价。

@austinakon

我爱这个 app。用了几天，完全停不下来。作为开始，再好不过了。

@jcrules328

我真的很喜欢这个产品；已经试用了大概一个月，感觉挖到宝了。它特别好用，因为我可以用 BeFreed 创建自己想学的主题，声音也很棒，旁白选择多到用不完。

@DanielCZ

我特别喜欢它能把有用的信息和想法浓缩成 8-15 分钟的播客式音频。我本来不太爱听播客，因为废话太多，但它把这些全都去掉了。

@BeFreed user

我正在读博士的最后阶段，需要读大量不熟悉的材料… 用 BeFreed，只要输入一个提示，app 就会帮你找到源材料并生成一期音频播客。我觉得 BeFreed 的流程比 NotebookLM 更顺畅。

@Brad

我经常在做早餐、散步、通勤的时候上 YouTube 找点东西听，而 BeFreed 提供了更有针对性的选择，没有广告，也没有废话！

@BeFreed user

这个平台最棒的地方是它的多面性。真的没有任何主题是它讲不了的，你丢给它什么它都能处理… 很少能找到一个毫无限制、又真正兑现承诺的学习工具。

@jayallen

BeFreed 太棒了。界面好用，让我花在找功能上的时间更少，花在学习上的时间更多。有声书、播客和学习计划的组合是天才设计，彻底改变了我的日常。

@BeFreed user

一开始我花了点时间才弄明白怎么生成意大利语的播客，然后就——哇！太棒了！我可以让它讲解任何一个话题，它讲得又好又聪明！

@matteo77

BeFreed 已经成了我每天都用的有声书 app… 我最喜欢的是，把自己的文字放进去，它就能生成随时随地都能听的音频。

@kotanzu1

我特别喜欢它能把有用的信息和想法浓缩成 8-15 分钟的播客式音频。我本来不太爱听播客，因为废话太多，但它把这些全都去掉了。

@BeFreed user

我正在读博士的最后阶段，需要读大量不熟悉的材料… 用 BeFreed，只要输入一个提示，app 就会帮你找到源材料并生成一期音频播客。我觉得 BeFreed 的流程比 NotebookLM 更顺畅。

@Brad

我经常在做早餐、散步、通勤的时候上 YouTube 找点东西听，而 BeFreed 提供了更有针对性的选择，没有广告，也没有废话！

@BeFreed user

这个平台最棒的地方是它的多面性。真的没有任何主题是它讲不了的，你丢给它什么它都能处理… 很少能找到一个毫无限制、又真正兑现承诺的学习工具。

@jayallen

BeFreed 太棒了。界面好用，让我花在找功能上的时间更少，花在学习上的时间更多。有声书、播客和学习计划的组合是天才设计，彻底改变了我的日常。

@BeFreed user

一开始我花了点时间才弄明白怎么生成意大利语的播客，然后就——哇！太棒了！我可以让它讲解任何一个话题，它讲得又好又聪明！

@matteo77

BeFreed 已经成了我每天都用的有声书 app… 我最喜欢的是，把自己的文字放进去，它就能生成随时随地都能听的音频。

@kotanzu1

查看更多网络上关于 BeFreed 的讨论

开启你的学习之旅，就是现在

第 6 章

《可避免的戰爭》摘要

《可避免的戰爭》摘要概述

用不同学习方式探索《可避免的戰爭》摘要

The Great Power Struggle That Could Redefine Our Century

Inside Xi Jinping's Strategic Vision for China and the World

边听边看，每个词都清晰呈现

The Dangerous Dance of Great Powers

Xi's Concentric Circles of Strategic Interest

从《可避免的戰爭》摘要中收获更多

The Politics of Staying in Power

Taiwan: The Most Dangerous Flashpoint

边听边看，每个词都清晰呈现

China's Military Transformation Under Xi

America's Strategic Awakening

从《可避免的戰爭》摘要中收获更多

The Decade of Living Dangerously

The Case for Managed Strategic Competition

边听边看，每个词都清晰呈现

A Call for Strategic Wisdom

你已读完《可避免的戰爭》摘要

《可避免的戰爭》摘要中的核心主题

《可避免的戰爭》摘要精选金句

《可避免的戰爭》摘要中的人物

关于作者

下载《可避免的戰爭》摘要

用户还喜欢

关于《可避免的戰爭》摘要的常见问题

What is The Avoidable War by Kevin Rudd about?

Who should read The Avoidable War?

What is “managed strategic competition” in The Avoidable War?

How does The Avoidable War compare to Destined for War by Graham Allison?

该学习计划的一部分

South & East Asia Geopolitics Study Plan

Pacific Geopolitics Learning Plan

发现更多

BeFreed 汇聚全球求知若渴的学习者

用不同学习方式探索《可避免的戰爭》摘要

The Great Power Struggle That Could Redefine Our Century

Inside Xi Jinping's Strategic Vision for China and the World

边听边看，每个词都清晰呈现

The Dangerous Dance of Great Powers

Xi's Concentric Circles of Strategic Interest

从《可避免的戰爭》摘要中收获更多

The Politics of Staying in Power

Taiwan: The Most Dangerous Flashpoint

边听边看，每个词都清晰呈现

China's Military Transformation Under Xi

America's Strategic Awakening

从《可避免的戰爭》摘要中收获更多

The Decade of Living Dangerously

The Case for Managed Strategic Competition

边听边看，每个词都清晰呈现

A Call for Strategic Wisdom

你已读完《可避免的戰爭》摘要

用户还喜欢

该学习计划的一部分

South & East Asia Geopolitics Study Plan

Pacific Geopolitics Learning Plan

发现更多