Disunited Nations: Peter Zeihan on the End of the Global Order

Lena: It’s easy to blame the current chaos on personality politics, but Zeihan points to something much deeper: the total breakdown of the American political party system. He argues that because of how U.S. elections work—where you only need one more vote than your opponent—parties are these weird, stable but weak coalitions.

Miles: Yeah, he breaks down the Republican party as this alliance of six groups: business, national security, fiscal conservatives, evangelicals, pro-lifers, and populists. They stayed together because they each had their one "big issue" and ignored the rest. But since the early 2000s, that’s all shattered. The War on Terror turned off the business and fiscal folks, and then the populist wing—which used to be the "crazy uncle" of the party—took over the driver's seat and alienated everyone else.

Lena: And the Democrats aren't in better shape. They bet everything on "demographics as destiny," thinking a coalition of blacks, Hispanics, gays, and single women would become the natural governing party. But it turns out, those groups don't actually agree on everything. You've got socially conservative voters who lean left on economics, and socially liberal voters who are fiscal hawks.

Miles: So, while the U.S. is busy having an internal identity crisis, it’s effectively "ghosting" its allies. We’ve seen the U.S. pull its troop levels down to the lowest they’ve been since the Great Depression. And since there’s no consensus at home on what the U.S. should even do in the world, the default setting has become "Strategic Retrenchment".

Lena: It’s a transition to a "Fourth Age"—a world without a global guardian. Without that U.S. "referee," all the old animosities that were frozen during the Cold War are starting to thaw out. It’s not just that the U.S. is leaving; it’s that it doesn’t even care to define what comes next.

Miles: Which brings us to the core of Zeihan’s toolkit for predicting who wins and who loses. If the U.S. isn't making the world safe for everyone, you have to look at the raw ingredients of a nation: usable land and defensible borders; a good food supply; a sustainable population structure; access to a stable mix of energy inputs.

Lena: This is where Zeihan really leans into the "hard" factors of geopolitics. He argues that for a nation to be successful in this new "Disorder," it needs four critical assets: usable land with defensible borders, a reliable food supply, a sustainable population structure, and access to energy.

Miles: And the demographic part is probably his most famous—or infamous—argument. He uses these "population pyramids" to show how a country's age structure dictates its economic future. In a healthy "pyramid," you have lots of kids at the bottom, fewer young workers in the middle, and a small number of retirees at the top. The young workers provide the labor and the tax base to support the elderly.

Lena: But because of urbanization, that's changing. Zeihan has this great line: "On the farm, we marry young, we work young, and die young. In the city, we marry old, work old, and die old". When people move into cramped apartments, kids become an expensive hobby rather than free labor for the farm. So, birth rates tank.

Miles: And when those birth rates stay low for decades, your "pyramid" turns into a "chimney" or even an inverted triangle. You end up with a massive group of retirees and not enough workers to keep the lights on or pay for the pensions. Germany and Japan are the poster children for this—they are literally running out of people.

Lena: It’s a double whammy. You lose the workers, but you also lose the consumers. Young people buy houses, cars, and baby clothes—they drive the economy. Retirees mostly just spend on healthcare. If you don't have a "bulge" of people in their 20s and 30s, your domestic market just evaporates.

Miles: Then you add geography on top of that. If you have navigable rivers—like the U.S. or Argentina—moving goods is cheap. If you have mountains and deserts everywhere—like Iran—everything is expensive and hard to govern. In the Order, the U.S. made it so geography "didn't matter" for a while. You could be a mountain kingdom and still trade with the world. But in the Disorder? Geography is back with a vengeance.

Lena: So let’s get into the specific winners. Japan is a really counterintuitive one in Zeihan’s book. Everyone talks about their "Lost Decades" and their aging population, but Zeihan thinks they are actually the best-positioned power in East Asia.

Miles: It's because they’ve been "practicing" for the end of the Order longer than anyone else. Because Japan has no natural resources, they’ve spent decades building high-tech supply chains and securing relationships. They have the second-best Navy in the world, and unlike China, they actually have positive relationships with the oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf. They’ve used technology to "transcend" their geographic limits.

Lena: Then there's Turkey. Zeihan calls them the "awakening superpower". They control the Turkish Straits—the literal bridge between Europe, Asia, and Africa. When global trade was safe, that didn't matter as much. But as the oceans become more dangerous, those old-school regional hubs like Istanbul become incredibly valuable again. Plus, they have the most capable army in their region and a demographic profile that’s actually healthy compared to Europe.

Miles: And don't forget France. Zeihan is surprisingly bullish on the French. While Germany is staring down a demographic and energy cliff, France has a sustainable domestic system. They have the "Beauce"—some of the most fertile farmland in the world—which has fed them for centuries.

Lena: It’s interesting because we usually think of Germany as the "engine of Europe," but Zeihan argues France is the only one with a military that’s truly independent of NATO and a geography that works without a global protector. They have their own internal issues—like the deep social stratification and "alienated communities" in their cities—but compared to their neighbors, they are remarkably resilient.

Miles: It really highlights how the Disorder isn't a disaster for everyone. If you’ve got the right mix of a strong navy, a young-ish population, and a piece of land that can actually grow food, you’re looking at a resurgence of local dominance.

Lena: Now for the bad news. Zeihan’s take on China is probably his most controversial, especially since so many people assume they are the next global hegemon. But he argues China is actually a "paper tiger" that’s about to hit a wall.

Miles: It’s a massive list of problems. First, they are a net importer of food and energy—the rest of the world combined doesn't import as much soy as China does. Second, their debt is astronomical. Their GDP has grown, sure, but their credit has expanded 24 times over—their total debt is triple the size of their entire economy. And their demographics are even worse than Japan's because of the legacy of the One-Child Policy. They are aging faster than any society in history.

Lena: And then there’s Russia. Zeihan describes Russia as a "failed superpower" that’s basically running on fumes. Their population is imploding because of low birth rates and staggering death rates from things like alcoholism and drug-resistant TB. Their military—which he predicted would be half its 2016 size by 2022—is struggling just to maintain what they have.

Miles: The geography kills them, too. Russia is eleven time zones of mostly low-productivity land. Moving anything across that is incredibly expensive. In the Order, they could at least export their oil and gas safely, but if the Order breaks, they lose the ability to generate the capital they need to even keep their own country together.

Lena: And Germany... man, Germany is in a tough spot in this book. Their entire economic model is built on "risk-free trade"—importing cheap energy and raw materials, then exporting high-end cars and machines to a global market. But if the U.S. Navy isn’t there to protect those shipments, and if the European Union starts to crumble, Germany’s "golden age" just ends.

Miles: They also have that "inverted pyramid" demographic problem. Their social stability depends on a generous welfare state, but that only works if you have a lot of taxpayers and very few dependents. Germany is about to have the exact opposite. It's a "superpower, backfired".

Lena: Turning to the Middle East, Zeihan frames the whole region's chaos as a result of geography—specifically, the lack of water. Because rain only hits the highlands, people are clustered around small water sources, which leads to constant "raiding and counter-raiding" over resources.

Miles: He calls Iran an "ancient superpower" that’s physically isolated by its mountains. They have no navigable rivers, which makes their internal economy a nightmare, but those same mountains make them almost impossible to invade. They’ve basically "won" regional leadership by default as the U.S. leaves, but they aren't actually prepared to manage or protect those gains.

Lena: On the other side, you have Saudi Arabia, which Zeihan describes as an "anti-power". They have a "medieval-style monarchy" that’s so afraid of being overthrown that they don't even allow a professional military or an educated middle class to develop—they just import millions of guest workers.

Miles: Their entire existence is a bet on oil. The "oil revolution" allowed them to import massive amounts of food for a population that has exploded since WWII. But if the Order collapses and oil stops flowing—or if the price tanks because the U.S. is now a net exporter of energy—Saudi Arabia can't feed its people. They are in a desperate race to "buff up" their security before a real war breaks out.

Lena: It’s a fascinating dynamic. You have Iran, which is geographically secure but economically broken, and Saudi Arabia, which is fabulously wealthy but geographically and socially fragile. As the U.S. pulls back from its role as the "referee" in the Middle East, these two are going to be left to settle their old scores alone.

Lena: If you want to see how geography can be a "cheat code" or a curse, look at Argentina and Brazil. Zeihan is surprisingly optimistic about Argentina—if they can just stop sabotaging themselves.

Miles: Argentina has some of the most secure geography on the planet. They have a massive confluence of rivers that lead right to Buenos Aires, which makes transporting their beef, grain, and minerals incredibly cheap. They have energy, they have food, and they have defensible borders. The only thing holding them back is their own "politics of self-destruction"—decades of nationalist-socialist policies that lead to inflation and defaults. But in a world where everyone else is struggling for resources, Argentina’s natural wealth might finally force them to get their act together.

Lena: Brazil, on the other hand, is the "sunset approaches" story. They’ve done well under globalization, but their whole system is built on foreign capital and safe ocean transport for their soy and beef. Without the Order, that capital dries up and those transport routes become risky.

Miles: Plus, Brazil has a really difficult social structure. Because of their colonial history, land was given as gifts from the Portuguese emperor to a few oligarchs. There was never a "pioneer era" for common people to get ahead. This created extreme inequality and a culture of corruption that makes it almost impossible to achieve national goals.

Lena: Zeihan even mentions that tropical nature is working against them. "Brazilian bugs and weeds" develop chemical resistance way faster than in temperate climates, which makes their agriculture much more expensive to maintain than Argentina’s. So, as the global system breaks down, Brazil is losing control of its cities and facing populist uprisings, while Argentina is sitting on a gold mine if they can just find a stable leader.

Lena: So, if you’re a business leader or a policy maker, what are the actual takeaways from this? The first thing is to realize that the "safe and open" world we’ve known is a historical outlier. You have to start pricing in "geopolitical risk" as a primary factor, not an afterthought.

Miles: Right. If your supply chain relies on a "logistical marvel" that taps hundreds of facilities in dozens of countries, you’re in trouble. As Zeihan says, a car has 2,000 parts—if you’re missing ten of them because of a regional war or a closed sea lane, you don't have a car, you have a "large paperweight". You need to look for "roundabout production" that stays closer to home.

Lena: You also need to look at the demographic health of your partners. Are you betting your future on a country like Germany or China that is literally running out of workers and consumers? Or are you looking at places like the U.S., France, or Argentina that have at least some hope of maintaining their population?

Miles: And finally, don’t ignore the "raw" factors. Food and energy are going to become the ultimate currencies again. The Order allowed us to forget about these things because they were always available on the global market. In the Disorder, "national success requires both continuity and economies of scale," and you can't have those without secure land and a stable energy mix.

Lena: It’s a shift from "global efficiency" to "local resilience." The winners will be the ones who can produce what they need within their own borders—or at least within a very small, very secure neighborhood.