Capítulo 4
The Fundamental Flaw in Average-Based Thinking
Peter Molenaar, a distinguished mathematician and psychologist who built his career on average-based research, experienced an unexpected epiphany while preparing to teach a course on mental testing. Reading Lord and Novick's authoritative textbook on testing theory, he discovered a fundamental flaw in averagarian thinking that would change his life and shake the foundations of social science.
Molenaar recognized that averagarianism's fatal flaw was its paradoxical assumption that you could understand individuals by ignoring their individuality. He named this error "the ergodic switch" - drawn from ergodic theory, which specifies when group averages can represent individuals. According to ergodic theory, using group averages to predict individual behavior is only valid if: (1) every group member is identical, and (2) every member remains unchanged in the future. Since humans are clearly not "frozen clones," this fundamental assumption of averagarianism fails.
This creates an intellectual "bait and switch" where scientists and institutions believe they're learning something meaningful about individuals by comparing them to averages, when they're actually ignoring everything important. For example, group data shows faster typists make fewer errors (because they're more skilled), but for an individual, typing faster typically causes more errors - the ergodic switch gives exactly the wrong answer.
After publishing his "individuality manifesto," Molenaar faced resistance from colleagues who viewed his ideas as "anarchy." The common objection wasn't to his mathematical proof but the practical concern: if we can't use averages to evaluate individuals, what can we use? This practical concern explains averagarianism's endurance - types, ranks, and average-based norms are convenient and efficient for industrial-age systems needing to sort people quickly.
Realizing he needed to offer an alternative to averagarianism, Molenaar sought support for developing a new scientific framework. When denied resources at Amsterdam due to his approaching retirement, he accepted a position at Penn State University, where he became founding director of a research group dedicated to building an interdisciplinary science of the individual. This new science offers three principles to replace reliance on averages: the jaggedness principle, the context principle, and the pathways principle.
Capítulo 5
The Jaggedness Principle: Talent Is Never One-Dimensional
The jaggedness principle states that we cannot apply one-dimensional thinking to understand something complex and "jagged." A quality is jagged when it consists of multiple dimensions that are weakly related to each other.
Human size perfectly illustrates this principle. While height is one-dimensional, human size comprises many weakly linked dimensions. Gilbert Daniels discovered less than 2% of pilots were average on four or more of nine body dimensions, and nobody was average on all of them. Even expanding the "average" range to include the middle 90% of each dimension would still exclude more than half of all people.
This explains why cockpits designed for the average pilot fit nobody, and why the Norma Look-Alike contest couldn't find a perfect match. While mass-produced clothing makes reasonable compromises, ignoring multidimensionality is dangerous when designing critical systems like cockpits or airbags.
Almost every meaningful human characteristic-talent, intelligence, character, creativity-is similarly jagged, though we often reduce these to single metrics like test scores or rankings, with disastrous results. Mental abilities are particularly jagged. James Cattell, who expected to find strong correlations between different mental abilities, instead discovered virtually no correlation. Even grades in different courses showed weak correlations, with Latin and Greek being the only exception.
Despite this evidence, psychologists, educators, and businesses doubled down on one-dimensional measures like IQ. But intelligence profiles reveal how misleading this is-two people with identical IQ scores of 103 can have dramatically different cognitive strengths and weaknesses. Mental talent is jagged at every level, even down to "microdimensions" like different types of memory.
In 2004, Todd Carlisle, an analyst at Google, conducted a comprehensive study analyzing over 300 factors to determine which actually predicted employee success. The results were stunning: SAT scores and alma mater prestige had no predictive value. Programming competition victories didn't matter. Grades only mattered for the first three years after graduation. Most surprisingly, not a single variable predicted success across even most Google jobs.
This revelation about talent's jaggedness transformed Google's recruitment practices. They stopped requiring GPAs for candidates more than three years post-graduation, eliminated test score requirements, and deemphasized school selectivity. Understanding our jaggedness empowers us to recognize untapped potential in ourselves and others. It enables us to help people leverage their strengths and improve weaknesses. Most importantly, it frees us from arbitrary, average-based limitations on who we can become.
Capítulo 6
The Context Principle: There Are No Personality Types
Are you an extrovert or an introvert? This seemingly simple question represents one of psychology's oldest debates. Trait psychologists argue that well-defined personality traits determine our behavior as "durable realities, and persistent factors of our conduct." Situation psychologists counter that environment drives personality more than innate traits.
University of Washington professor Yuichi Shoda approached personality research without siding with either trait or situationist camps. He believed both approaches were incomplete, proposing instead that personality emerges from the interaction between traits and situations.
To test his theory, Shoda conducted an extraordinary study at Wediko Children's Services summer camp, where 77 counselors documented the behavior of 84 children across all camp activities for six weeks, accumulating over 14,000 hours of observation. The results were unmistakable: each child exhibited different personalities in different situations.
This directly contradicted trait theory's assumption that dispositions like introversion or extroversion remain consistent across settings. Shoda found that children might be extroverted in one setting but introverted in another, with patterns that varied uniquely for each individual. This wasn't personality anarchy - rather, Shoda demonstrated we are consistent within specific contexts. His research established the context principle: behavior emerges from the unique interaction between individual and situation, not from traits or situations alone.
Shoda proposed "if-then signatures" as an alternative to essentialist thinking about personality. Rather than saying "Jack is extroverted," we should recognize contextual patterns: IF Jack is in the office, THEN he's very extroverted; IF Jack is with strangers, THEN he's mildly extroverted; IF Jack is stressed, THEN he's introverted.
Character, like personality, is contextual rather than fixed. Hugh Hartshorne's groundbreaking 1920s study of 10,865 students demonstrated this conclusively. Testing honesty across 29 different contexts, he found that children's behavior varied dramatically by situation - a child might cheat on a self-scored test but remain honest when keeping score at a party game.
Performance-based hiring, pioneered by Lou Adler, challenges traditional trait-based job descriptions by focusing on specific contextual performance requirements. As Adler explains, "There's no such thing as an all-around 'good communicator'" - communication skills vary dramatically by context, from customer service to accounting to sales presentations.
We resist abandoning the idea that we possess enduring, essential traits because our personalities feel stable. This stability exists, but only within specific contexts - our brains automatically adapt to different situations. Other people seem to have fixed personalities because we typically interact with them in limited contexts. When someone behaves negatively, instead of labeling them with a trait, we should ask, "Why are they behaving that way in that context?" This contextual understanding fosters compassion and forms the foundation for successful relationships.
Capítulo 7
The Pathways Principle: Many Roads Lead to Excellence
Our society is fixated on "normal" developmental pathways, from children's walking milestones to career trajectories. We anxiously compare our children's progress to prescribed norms, fearing deviations signal problems. This conviction stems from "normative thinking" - the third mental barrier of averagarianism - which assumes the right pathway is the one followed by the average person.
For decades, researchers insisted children develop walking skills through fixed, age-specific milestones. This seemed so intuitive it was rarely challenged until scientist Karen Adolph, following her mentor Esther Thelen's individualized approach, tracked twenty-eight infants from pre-crawling to walking.
Adolph discovered there is no "normal pathway" to crawling. Instead, she found twenty-five different pathways with unique movement patterns, all eventually leading to walking. While conventional wisdom dictated children should follow certain stages in a specific order, Adolph found many infants exhibited multiple stages simultaneously, moved back and forth between stages, or skipped stages entirely. Nearly half the infants never "belly-crawled" at all, despite this being considered an essential developmental stage.
Our society equates speed with intelligence, assuming faster learners are smarter. This belief was cemented into education by Edward Thorndike, who claimed "quick learners are good retainers" and recommended standardizing class time based on average completion rates. This assumption fundamentally shapes our educational system, penalizing students who need more time regardless of their actual ability.
Benjamin Bloom challenged this notion in the 1970s through groundbreaking experiments comparing fixed-pace classroom instruction with self-paced tutoring. The results were stunning: while only 20% of fixed-pace students mastered the material, over 90% of self-paced students achieved mastery. Bloom demonstrated that learning pace varies by topic for each individual - no one is universally "fast" or "slow." These findings have been replicated numerous times, conclusively proving that equating speed with ability is wrong.
The pathways principle challenges a deeper assumption: that human development follows fixed, universal sequences. Kurt Fischer, challenging the ladder metaphor of development, discovered that children learn to read through at least three distinct pathways. While 60% followed the "standard" sequence, 30% learned through an entirely different order of skills, and 10% followed a path that led to reading difficulties. This insight allowed educators to provide targeted interventions rather than labeling children as disabled.
Fischer proposed replacing the ladder metaphor with a "web of development" where each step opens unique possibilities aligned with individual characteristics. This principle extends beyond childhood - a European Research Council study found seven distinct career pathways to scientific excellence, whimsically named after dances like "Quickstep," "Tango," and "Slow Waltz." The research confirmed that excellence exists in every pattern, not just the conventional rapid-promotion track.
Capítulo 8
Businesses That Thrive on Individuality
Working in the layaway department of a big-box store after dropping out of high school, I encountered pervasive employee apathy. When I suggested improving the layaway tag system, my boss dismissed it with "corporate will never allow it." I was merely an interchangeable cog in a massive machine with no incentive to innovate. This employee indifference isn't unique-a 2013 Gallup study found 70 percent of workers feel disengaged, a direct result of Taylorist standardization where managers make all decisions and workers merely implement them.
The century-old averagarian business model treats employees as disposable cells on a spreadsheet, but this approach is spectacularly wrong. Companies across all industries can successfully apply the principles of individuality, as demonstrated by three examples: a retailer, an Indian IT company, and an industrial food manufacturer.
Costco consistently ranks as a top employer, with typical employees earning over $20 per hour (compared to the retail industry's $12.20 average) and 88% participating in company-sponsored healthcare. During the 2008 recession, while competitors laid off workers, Costco gave employees a $1.50 hourly raise.
Founder Jim Sinegal explains that investing in individuals is their core philosophy-not just a PR slogan. Costco empowers employees to develop skills they believe will benefit the company and encourages them to explore different positions, promoting over 70% of managers from within.
Annette Alvarez-Peters exemplifies Costco's unique career pathways. Starting as a sales audit clerk at age 21, she moved through various positions-receptionist, administrative assistant, reorder clerk, assistant buyer-before becoming responsible for all Costco's wine, beer, and liquor purchases, ranking fourth on Decanter's list of most influential people in the international wine industry.
Zoho Corporation, founded by Princeton Ph.D. Sridhar Vembu in 1996, has grown into an international leader in cloud-based software competing with giants like Microsoft and Salesforce.com. Unable to attract "top talent" by conventional metrics, Vembu discovered overlooked talent-including his own brother who lacked computer science background but became an exceptional programmer. This experience led to creating Zoho University in 2005, where economically disadvantaged students with minimal schooling are paid to learn programming and other skills. The university features self-paced, project-based learning with no grades, and has been so successful that 15% of Zoho's engineers are graduates.
Morning Star Company rejects traditional management hierarchies in favor of "self-management" where employees define their own contributions. This approach enables innovation at every level-temporary workers like Paul Green improved machine efficiency by 25% through self-directed experimentation, while another employee, Abe, transformed from manual laborer to "master tinkerer" by demonstrating the value of his mechanical skills.
When organizations truly value employee individuality, both workers and the business benefit-creating what could be called "win-win capitalism." The fundamental approach-investing in individuals-creates loyal, driven, and passionate employees who help companies succeed financially, even in traditionally averagarian industries.
Capítulo 9
Reimagining Education for Individual Excellence
Higher education serves as the primary gateway to opportunity in our society, but its current system is failing its practical purpose of career preparation at an affordable price. Too many graduates can't find jobs in their field (31%), employers can't fill good-paying positions (35%), and those who are hired often lack necessary skills. Meanwhile, college costs have risen 538% since 1985-far outpacing even medical costs-leaving Americans with $1.1 trillion in student loan debt. The problem stems from an averagarian architecture that prioritizes standardization and ranking over individual development.
Our higher education system was designed a century ago to sort students through standardized rankings-essentially an educational version of the Norma look-alike competition. Students must conform to succeed: taking identical classes and activities as peers but performing better, following standardized curricula in college, and earning undifferentiated diplomas at enormous financial cost. College admissions consultant Judy Muir laments how this system forces students to "hide their individuality instead of developing it," as they compete on identical metrics.
The four-year degree requirement is largely arbitrary-whether studying German literature, business administration, or molecular biology, all bachelor's degrees require similar "seat time" over the same number of billable semesters. This standardized approach ignores differences in subject difficulty, learning pace, institutional variation, and career-relevant skill mastery.
Instead of diplomas, credentials offer a more flexible alternative, representing the smallest meaningful unit of learning. These can be stacked to create advanced qualifications, allowing students to pursue exactly what they need without paying for unnecessary courses. Successful credentialing programs already exist at institutions like MIT and through Virginia's state-sponsored initiatives, while MOOCs are making this approach more accessible by offering certificates for completed courses.
Grades are fundamentally flawed as performance measures because they reduce complex abilities to a single dimension, contradicting the jaggedness principle. Competency-based evaluation offers a solution with three essential features: it's pass/incomplete rather than graded; it's institution-agnostic, allowing students to acquire skills through any means; and it's professionally aligned with input from employers and industry experts. Western Governors University exemplifies this approach with its online, self-paced curriculum where students earn credit by demonstrating competency rather than logging seat time.
A self-determined, competency-based credentialing system transforms education from a Taylorist factory model to a dynamic ecosystem aligned with the principles of individuality. It honors the jaggedness principle by letting students pursue what they're good at, the context principle by evaluating competency in relevant professional environments, and the pathways principle by allowing personalized learning paces and sequences.
Capítulo 10
Redefining Equal Opportunity for a New Age
Colonel Kim Campbell ("Killer Chick"), a 5'4" pilot, manually landed a severely damaged A-10 Warthog after being hit by a surface-to-air missile during a 2003 mission in Baghdad. Despite the extreme danger-with only three previous manual landing attempts in history, two ending catastrophically-Campbell successfully landed the aircraft, earning a Distinguished Flying Cross.
Campbell's story illustrates a crucial lesson: fit creates opportunity. She could only become a pilot because the Air Force had abandoned average-based cockpit design in favor of adjustable cockpits that accommodate individual differences. This reveals the flaw in our traditional understanding of equal opportunity as "equal access" to standardized systems. Equal access improves society but suffers from attempting to maximize opportunity on average, ignoring that no average person exists.
Instead, we need "equal fit"-designing systems responsive to individuality rather than forcing people to conform to standardized environments. This aligns with Lincoln's vision of clearing "artificial weights from all shoulders" to give everyone "an unfettered start and a fair chance." With modern science and technology, we can now build institutions responsive to individuality, beginning with public education, where despite "personalized learning" buzzwords, standardization still dominates in textbooks, assessments, and curriculum pacing.
Traditional public education violates the principles of individuality by dictating not just what students learn, but how, when, at what pace, and in what order. We can introduce equal fit by designing textbooks "to the edges" rather than to the average, creating adaptive curricular materials, developing assessments that measure individual learning rather than just ranking students, and encouraging local experimentation with student-driven, self-paced approaches.
The American Dream, coined by James Truslow Adams during the Great Depression, wasn't originally about wealth or fame but about living to one's fullest potential and being valued as an individual. Adams created this concept in direct response to Taylorism and the efficiency movement that prioritized systems over individuals. As averagarianism reshaped education and work, this dream shifted from personal fulfillment to economic advancement.
This shift reflects the weight of one-dimensional thinking in our culture: standardized education that constantly ranks us, workplaces that hire based on these rankings, and a society that distributes rewards according to professional standing. We worry that being labeled "different" will doom us or our children to failure, that without top-tier credentials employers won't notice us, that answering personality tests "incorrectly" will cost us opportunities. We've reduced the American dream to being relatively better than others rather than becoming our best selves.
The principles of individuality can restore the dream's original meaning by overcoming one-dimensional, essentialist, and normative thinking. By demanding institutions value individuality over averages, we can redefine success on our own terms. This isn't utopian - it's already happening in personalized medicine, competency-based university credentialing, context-based hiring, and enterprises that value individuals. The dream of becoming our best on our own terms is achievable now that we can break free from averagarianism by choosing individuality over conformity.
