The IEA has dramatically revised its oil demand forecasts, now suggesting demand could rise until 2050 under current policies—a stark contrast to earlier predictions of a 2030 peak. Multiple scenarios exist, influenced by policy choices, EV adoption, and global energy needs.

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**Lena:** Hey there, welcome to Energy Horizons! I'm Lena, and I've got Miles with me today to tackle a question that's been on everyone's mind lately: when exactly will global oil demand peak?
**Miles:** And it's such a fascinating question, Lena, because the forecasts keep shifting. You know what's really surprising? The International Energy Agency has completely changed its tune. They're now saying oil demand might continue rising until 2050 under current policies—that's a massive shift from their previous prediction of a peak by 2030.
**Lena:** Wait, seriously? That's a huge reversal! I thought we were making progress with electric vehicles and renewable energy. What changed?
**Miles:** Right, it's quite the shift. The IEA cites several factors—energy security concerns, weaker climate policies, and even the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. But here's what's interesting—they're actually presenting multiple scenarios now. Under their "stated policies" scenario, oil demand could still plateau around 2030, reaching about 105.5 million barrels per day.
**Lena:** That's fascinating. So there's still hope for an earlier peak, but it depends on which policies actually get implemented?
**Miles:** Exactly! And electric vehicles are a major factor here. The IEA projects EVs could displace 5.4 million barrels of oil per day by 2030. That's significant when you consider global demand is around 100 million barrels currently. Let's explore how these different scenarios might play out and what factors will ultimately determine when we reach peak oil demand.