Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters by Steven E. Koonin Summary

Steven E. Koonin’s Unsettled challenges the certainty of mainstream climate narratives by examining scientific uncertainties, flawed prediction models, and miscommunication in climate science. The book argues that human influence on climate is real but overstated, advocating for pragmatic policies that balance costs, benefits, and alternatives like adaptation or geoengineering.

Policymakers, environmental professionals, and critical thinkers seeking a data-driven perspective on climate science will benefit from Koonin’s analysis. It’s also valuable for readers skeptical of media narratives or interested in the gaps between scientific research and public messaging.

Yes—Koonin’s expertise as a physicist and former Obama administration science advisor provides a rare, nonpartisan critique of climate science communication. The book equips readers to evaluate claims about extreme weather, sea-level rise, and policy proposals with nuance.

• Uncertain science: Climate models struggle to predict past trends, casting doubt on future projections.
• Distorted narratives: Media and policymakers often misinterpret scientific findings.
• Practical solutions: Adaptation and innovation may be more effective than rapid decarbonization.

• “The science of climate is neither settled nor sufficient to dictate policy”: Emphasizes that science alone cannot resolve complex policy trade-offs.
• “Uncertainty is a prime mover and motivator of science”: Highlights how gaps in knowledge drive research rather than justify alarmism.

Koonin disputes claims that recent extreme weather is unprecedented, noting historical variability in hurricanes, wildfires, and heatwaves. He also reveals inconsistencies between climate data and model predictions, such as mid-20th-century cooling despite rising CO₂.

The book points to global cooling from 1940–1970 despite accelerating emissions, a period often omitted from public discussions. This underscores natural climate variability and challenges simplistic cause-effect narratives.

Koonin advocates for adapting to climate changes rather than prioritizing costly emissions reductions. He also explores geoengineering as a viable contingency plan, stressing the need for cost-benefit analysis in decision-making.

Some scientists argue Koonin downplays risks by focusing on uncertainties, while critics claim his energy industry ties (e.g., former BP role) bias his skepticism toward rapid decarbonization.

Unlike Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth, Koonin’s work prioritizes scientific transparency over activism. It complements Michael Shellenberger’s Apocalypse Never by questioning alarmism but adds deeper technical critique of climate models.

With a PhD in physics, decades at Caltech, and roles as BP’s Chief Scientist and Undersecretary for Science under Obama, Koonin uniquely bridges academia, industry, and policymaking—lending credibility to his critiques.

The book urges investing in R&D for affordable clean energy and resilient infrastructure instead of mandating rapid fossil fuel phaseouts. It frames climate action as a long-term engineering challenge, not an existential crisis.