第 9 章
Strategic Foresight: Scenario Analysis
What if you could rehearse the future before it happens? Scenario analysis provides exactly this capability-a structured approach for developing multiple detailed descriptions of possible futures to address common decision-making errors of underprediction and overprediction.
A scenario is a detailed description of a possible future based on critical assumptions about economic, industry, market, or technological evolution. Scenario analysis helps executives avoid underprediction and overprediction of change by building shared strategic thinking frameworks, enhancing planning flexibility, and providing early warning. Particularly useful for threatened companies needing to rethink their approach, this technique helps organizations prepare for uncertain futures, especially when uncertainty is high, costly surprises have occurred, new opportunities are hard to generate, strategic thinking quality is low, or significant industry change is imminent.
Scenarios are carefully constructed stories about possible futures, not predictions or forecasts. Four approaches exist: the quantitative computer-generated econometric model that integrates interrelationships between variables; and three qualitative methods-the intuitive method projecting fundamental trends, the Delphi method using iterative expert panels to reduce bias, and cross-impact analysis estimating probability and timing of future events.
Despite its narrative qualities, scenario analysis follows systematic phases in an interactive, intense, and imaginative process. Analysts begin by isolating decisions to be made, challenging mental maps shaping perceptions, and gathering information from diverse sources. The process requires clearly focusing the geographic scope at global, international, national, regional, or local levels, and follows a ten-step approach: define scope, identify stakeholders, identify trends, identify uncertainties, construct initial themes, check consistency, develop learning scenarios, identify research needs, develop quantitative models, and evolve toward decision scenarios. The goal is to create three or four plausible alternative futures that address critical issues and can help test strategies.
Consider the forest products industry following the global recession that began in 2006, when growth stagnated and housing markets collapsed, severely depressing demand for building materials and lumber products. Two experts identified four scenarios based on energy, carbon, and fiber prices:
In the "World Continues Its Course" scenario, recovery begins by 2009-10, with stabilizing housing markets, recovered industrial activity, and consumer demand pushing forest products prices back to pre-crisis levels.
In the "Repeated Economic Meltdown" scenario, recovery never fully materializes. Double-dip recessions occur across economies, massive government borrowing erodes market confidence, and structural problems persist with high unemployment. Consumers shift to savings mode rather than spending, housing markets remain depressed, and demand for traditional lumber products stays at crisis-level lows.
In the "Skyrocketing Energy Prices" scenario, economic growth resumes and drives energy demand beyond pre-crisis levels, particularly in rapidly growing economies like China and India. However, supply of traditional energy sources fails to keep pace due to insufficient investment in discovery and infrastructure. Though alternative energy sources are stimulated, they cannot meet demand, pushing oil prices higher.
In the "Emerging Carbon Economy" scenario, governments pursue greenhouse gas reduction through protocols like Kyoto, investing heavily in alternative energy and developing carbon pricing mechanisms. Carbon becomes a worldwide regulated commodity, with dramatic growth in carbon pricing through both voluntary compliance and regulatory penalties. Forest lands grow in value as carbon offset resources, while biomass-based power generation gains favor.
Each scenario creates different winners and losers based on strategies, resources, and capabilities. The first scenario favors traditional companies with economies of scale or product differentiation. The second scenario rewards lean operators with strong financial risk management. The third scenario requires strategic decisions about operational location and partnerships, as high fuel prices reduce profit margins for traditional players. The fourth scenario strongly favors private forest landowners who can facilitate carbon offset transactions and produce biofuels.
Scenario analysis helps determine sources of competitive advantage as industries evolve and predicts competitors' moves. Its requirement for internal consistency forces explicit addressing of interrelated sequences and causal paths. Good scenarios enable decision-makers to learn and adapt, helping managers grasp the importance of strategic options as risk contingency.
A key shortcoming occurs when companies use scenario analysis to replace strategy formulation. While it shows possible consequences of predetermined strategies, it doesn't create new opportunities by itself. Analysts must avoid selecting scenarios that merely fit current company strengths-remaining objective about each scenario's possibility regardless of current competitive position.
