What is *Risk Intelligence* by Dylan Evans about?

*Risk Intelligence* explores how to make better decisions in uncertain situations by accurately estimating probabilities. Dylan Evans introduces "risk intelligence" as the ability to gauge the limits of one’s knowledge, balancing confidence and caution. The book uses real-world examples, from financial crises to airport security, to show how probabilistic thinking improves outcomes in business, healthcare, and daily life.

Who should read *Risk Intelligence* by Dylan Evans?

Professionals in finance, healthcare, and leadership roles will benefit from its insights on decision-making under uncertainty. It’s also valuable for psychology enthusiasts and anyone interested in avoiding cognitive biases. Evans’ blend of behavioral science and practical frameworks makes it accessible for both experts and general readers.

Is *Risk Intelligence* by Dylan Evans worth reading?

Yes. Publishers Weekly praises it as a “valuable manual,” blending psychology, mathematics, and real-world case studies. Evans’ expertise in behavioral science and his engaging writing style make complex concepts like probabilistic reasoning actionable. The book’s lessons on avoiding overconfidence and worst-case thinking remain highly relevant.

What is the definition of “risk intelligence” in the book?

Risk intelligence is the ability to estimate probabilities accurately while recognizing the limits of one’s knowledge. Evans emphasizes that it involves knowing when to act confidently (with sufficient data) and when to seek more information. This skill helps navigate uncertainty in fields like finance, medicine, and crisis management.

What are the key concepts in *Risk Intelligence*?

- **Ambiguity intolerance**: Cultural tendencies favoring binary decisions over probabilistic thinking. - **Expert limitations**: Overreliance on specialists with narrow knowledge. - **Probabilistic analysis**: Using statistical reasoning to avoid overreacting to rare events (e.g., post-9/11 security measures). - **Risk vs. opportunity**: Balancing downside risks and upside potential.

How does *Risk Intelligence* apply to business decision-making?

Evans argues that businesses often fail by ignoring probability-based strategies. For example, he critiques excessive focus on worst-case scenarios (e.g., costly security theater) and advocates for data-driven risk assessments. The book also highlights how overconfident executives contributed to the 2008 financial crisis.

What critiques exist about *Risk Intelligence*?

Some readers find early chapters overly academic, though Evans balances theory with relatable examples like gambling strategies and forensic science. Critics note the “Risk Intelligence Test” focuses more on tolerance for ambiguity than actionable skills, but overall, the book is praised for its practicality.

How does *Risk Intelligence* compare to other decision-making books?

Unlike Daniel Kahneman’s *Thinking, Fast and Slow*, which focuses on cognitive biases, Evans prioritizes calibrating confidence through probabilistic thinking. It complements works like Philip Tetlock’s *Superforecasting* by emphasizing self-awareness in uncertainty.

리스크 지능

불확실성과 함께 살아가는 법

딜런 에번스

3.71(256 Reviews)

리스크 지능 개요

딜런 에반스(Dylan Evans)의 "리스크 인텔리전스(Risk Intelligence)"는 점점 더 복잡해지는 세상에서 불확실성을 마스터하는 방법을 밝힙니다. 세계경제포럼의 클라우스 슈밥(Klaus Schwab)이 추천한 이 책은 왜 경마 도박사들이 금융 전문가보다 더 나은 예측을 하는지 그 이유를 폭로합니다. 당신의 자신감을 조절하는 능력이 당신의 성공을 결정지을 수 있을까요?

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1장

When Certainty Becomes a Liability

Have you ever confidently predicted an outcome only to be completely wrong? Perhaps you were certain your favorite team would win, or that a job interview went brilliantly, only to face disappointment. What if these failures weren't just bad luck, but symptoms of a crucial cognitive skill you've never developed? This is the premise behind Dylan Evans' groundbreaking work on risk intelligence-our ability to accurately gauge probabilities in an uncertain world. Unlike traditional intelligence measures, risk intelligence isn't about knowing more facts; it's about knowing the limits of your knowledge. The book has become required reading in finance, military planning, and intelligence communities, with Warren Buffett reportedly calling it "the most important skill no one taught me." Even Elon Musk referenced it when discussing Tesla's risk assessment protocols, noting that "understanding probability is the foundation of rational decision-making."

2장

The Essence of Risk Intelligence

Risk intelligence is fundamentally about estimating probabilities accurately. It's not just relevant for gamblers or stock traders-we use it daily when deciding whether to carry an umbrella, trust a news source, or make a career change. The truly risk intelligent person knows precisely how much they know and how much they don't. They're able to quantify uncertainty and assign realistic probability estimates to different outcomes, maintaining appropriate confidence levels based on available information. Consider several professionals who demonstrate varying levels of risk intelligence: Kathryn, a detective who assigns precise confidence levels to her theories based on available evidence, scoring each piece of information from 1-10 and adjusting her overall case confidence accordingly. Jamie, a banker who carefully calibrates loan risk assessments by examining not just credit scores but also market conditions, industry trends, and historical default rates in similar circumstances. Dr. Chen, a physician who expertly balances treatment benefits against potential side effects, always considering multiple scenarios and their likelihood. These individuals demonstrate high risk intelligence by matching their confidence to their actual knowledge. Contrast them with examples of poor risk intelligence: Diane, who consistently overestimates her understanding of relationship dynamics, making repeated dating mistakes based on false assumptions. Jeff, who chronically underestimates his military expertise despite years of experience, missing opportunities to lead important missions. Sarah, an investor who ignores market volatility data and puts all her savings into a single stock, displaying dangerous overconfidence. These cases illustrate how risk intelligence affects outcomes across diverse domains. This skill matters enormously because we live in a probabilistic world where few things are certain. Critical decisions-from medical treatments to national security policies-must be made under uncertainty. The consequences of poor risk intelligence can be devastating, as illustrated by multiple historical examples: the 2008 financial crisis, where overconfident bankers misjudged mortgage default probabilities; the Challenger disaster, where engineers' risk assessments were overruled; and numerous medical misdiagnoses where doctors were too certain of their initial impressions. What makes risk intelligence particularly fascinating is that it doesn't correlate strongly with traditional intelligence measures. Studies show that people with high IQs often display poor probability judgment. Research with horse racing handicappers demonstrates this disconnect-their ability to estimate race outcomes showed no correlation with IQ scores but improved dramatically with experience in their specific domain. Similarly, weather forecasters develop excellent calibration through constant feedback, while many brilliant academics show poor ability to estimate research completion times. The good news? Unlike IQ, risk intelligence can be significantly improved through deliberate practice and awareness of our cognitive biases. Specific techniques include keeping a calibration journal, regularly reviewing past predictions, seeking disconfirming evidence, and explicitly stating confidence levels for important decisions. Organizations can improve collective risk intelligence by encouraging open discussion of uncertainties, maintaining prediction tournaments, and creating environments where expressing doubt is valued rather than punished. By understanding when we're likely to be overconfident or underconfident, we can calibrate our judgments more accurately and make better decisions in an uncertain world.

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3장

The Twilight Zone of Knowledge

Imagine your mind as a room illuminated by a single light bulb. Some objects stand in bright light-things you know with certainty, like your name or what you had for breakfast. Others remain in complete darkness-things about which you know absolutely nothing, like the exact population of a remote village in Mongolia. But between these extremes lies a vast twilight zone where most of our knowledge exists-areas where we have partial information but significant uncertainty. The challenge of risk intelligence is accurately judging how much we truly know about these partially illuminated subjects. Do we have 30% of the relevant information? 70%? Our ability to make this assessment determines whether we'll be appropriately confident or dangerously overconfident. Most people struggle with this twilight zone. Research shows we're particularly uncomfortable with ambiguity-the state of partial knowledge where certainty isn't possible. This "ambiguity intolerance" manifests as a psychological aversion to uncertainty that drives us toward false certainty. We'd rather have any answer, even a wrong one, than acknowledge the limits of our knowledge. This discomfort creates opposing psychological forces. The "need for closure" pulls us toward certainty, making any answer preferable to ambiguity. Meanwhile, the "need to avoid closure" pulls us toward uncertainty, making no answer seem satisfactory. People with high risk intelligence balance these forces perfectly, while most of us skew toward one extreme or the other. When the need for closure dominates, our probability estimates cluster at the extremes-0% and 100%-creating overconfidence. When the need to avoid closure prevails, our estimates huddle around 50%, indicating underconfidence. These tendencies can be measured through agreement with statements like "I hate to change my plans at the last minute" versus "I like to have friends who are unpredictable." These psychological tendencies explain why many people engage in "worst-case thinking," substituting imagination for analysis and fear for reason. Dick Cheney's infamous "one percent doctrine"-treating a 1% chance of catastrophe as certainty-exemplifies this fallacy. This thinking ignores cost-benefit analysis and leads to terrible decisions, as seen after the Three Mile Island accident when fear prevented nuclear plant construction for thirty years, leading to more harmful coal and oil plants instead. Similarly, the "all-or-nothing fallacy" skews probability estimates toward extremes by framing concepts like proof, knowledge, and belief in binary terms. This manifests in phrases like "You can't prove that" or "We cannot predict what will happen," which set impossibly high thresholds of absolute certainty. This fallacy renders everyday concepts unusable and has serious consequences, as seen in the MMR vaccine controversy where parents refused immunization despite overwhelming safety evidence. Learning to feel comfortable with uncertainty-developing what poet John Keats called "negative capability"-is crucial for risk intelligence. This means embracing the twilight zone rather than fleeing from it.

4장

Cognitive Illusions and Risk Blindness

Our minds employ numerous cognitive shortcuts-heuristics-that once served evolutionary purposes but now often undermine our risk intelligence. Like optical illusions that persist even when we know they're illusions, these psychological mechanisms can deceive us despite contradicting reality. The availability heuristic causes us to estimate probabilities based on how easily examples come to mind. While this worked well for our ancestors, modern media distorts this correlation by disproportionately reporting dramatic events. Studies show media reporting bias (like reporting every ecstasy death but only 1 in 250 paracetamol deaths) skews our risk perception. Even imagining events can cause "imagination inflation," making them seem more likely to occur or to have occurred in the past. Wishful thinking-allowing desires to influence beliefs-violates the principle that probabilities should be independent of outcomes. Research consistently shows an optimism bias where people overestimate positive outcomes (job offers, exam scores, marriage success) and underestimate negative ones. Even depressed individuals exhibit "depressive realism" but may still make overly optimistic predictions by failing to account for how their depression will affect outcomes. This optimism bias fueled the pre-2007 asset bubble, with lenders and borrowers convinced property prices would rise indefinitely. To counter this bias, organizations can develop corrective procedures like the UK government's "optimism bias uplifts" for infrastructure projects, or we can personally adjust estimates-doubling time estimates for projects or halving revenue projections in business plans. Confirmation bias-our tendency to embrace supporting evidence while ignoring contradictory data-severely undermines risk intelligence. Francis Bacon recognized this in 1620, noting how the mind "draws all things else to support and agree with it" once an opinion forms. Peter Wason's famous sequence experiment (2,4,6) demonstrated this bias, as students typically tested only confirming hypotheses. Koriat's groundbreaking research showed that risk intelligence dramatically improves when people deliberately seek reasons why they might be wrong, not just supporting evidence. Surprisingly, only participants asked to provide contradicting reasons significantly improved their calibration. This suggests seeking diverse, opposing viewpoints is crucial-yet increasingly difficult in our digital age where "filter bubbles" algorithmically reinforce existing beliefs. Hindsight bias-our tendency to claim we "knew it all along" after events unfold-devastates risk intelligence by preventing us from learning from mistakes. Fischhoff and Beyth demonstrated this in 1972 during Nixon's China visit; participants misremembered their predictions, inflating probabilities for events that occurred and deflating those that didn't. This bias robs us of genuine surprise-that mental jolt essential for learning. Recording predictions systematically offers the best defense against this self-deception. Perhaps most insidious is the mind-reading illusion-our misplaced confidence in reading others' thoughts and detecting deception. Research consistently shows our lie-detection abilities barely exceed chance, yet our confidence remains stubbornly high. Even worse, training programs like the widely-used Reid technique can actually decrease accuracy while increasing confidence. As Stephen King chillingly illustrates in "A Good Marriage," this misplaced certainty can mask profound ignorance about those closest to us: "His insanity was like an underground sea... You could stroll through [the flowers] and never know the madwater was there."

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5장

The Social Dynamics of Overconfidence

While overconfidence undermines risk intelligence, it persists because it confers social benefits-people often mistake confidence for competence. This social dynamic may have evolutionary roots, as our ancestors likely trusted reassuring, confident leaders over more measured ones. Social pressure to appear confident can undermine risk intelligence by discouraging careful deliberation. We often equate quick responses with intelligence ("quick-witted"), while those who pause to think may be perceived as less intelligent. Research using the Brief Loquaciousness and Interpersonal Responsiveness Test (BLIRT) shows that "blirtatious" people-those who respond quickly and effusively-initially impress others as more intelligent and competent. However, this advantage fades over time as people realize their exuberance often exceeds their insight. Social pressure also undermines risk intelligence through our tendency to follow crowds. When people with similar views gather, they form self-reinforcing groups where each person's conviction strengthens others' while contrary evidence is blocked-creating conditions for the "madness of crowds" Charles Mackay described in 1841. His accounts of economic bubbles, like the Dutch tulip mania of the 1630s, remain relevant today. During this speculative frenzy, tulip bulbs briefly became the world's most expensive objects before the market collapsed. How we communicate about risk significantly impacts our risk intelligence. Many well-intentioned efforts actually muddy the waters rather than clarify them. The Homeland Security color-coded threat system, implemented after 9/11 and abandoned in 2011, exemplifies this problem-it provided "little practical information," never used its lowest threat levels, and remained at "Yellow" (elevated risk) for six years. Ambiguous language severely undermines risk communication. The credit rating agencies' use of letter grades (AAA, AA+) instead of precise numerical probabilities exemplifies this problem. Only when we transform these ambiguous labels into numbers can we see just how wildly optimistic their ratings were before the financial crisis. This contributed to CalPERS winning court backing to proceed with fraud suits against Moody's, S&P, and Fitch for "wildly inaccurate" ratings. Legal standards of proof suffer from the same vagueness problem. Terms like "beyond reasonable doubt" and "balance of probabilities" are interpreted wildly differently by judges and jurors. Studies reveal that judges interpret "beyond reasonable doubt" as meaning about 89% certainty, while jurors averaged 83%. For civil cases, judges interpreted "balance of probabilities" as requiring 61% certainty, while jurors set a much higher threshold of 75%. This creates an illusion of communication that threatens due process.

6장

The Power of Numerical Thinking

In 1682, Swiss mathematician Jacob Bernoulli revolutionized probability by representing it numerically between zero and one-a radical concept at the time when likelihood was expressed only through vague verbal labels. This innovation enabled the application of mathematical tools to probability, spawning an entire field that continues to evolve today. The early Lloyd's of London insurance market illustrates the contrast; 17th century insurers relied solely on intuitive risk intelligence, pricing policies case-by-case without the mathematical tools or mortality tables we now take for granted. The development of probability theory and statistics over centuries represents a gradual scientific revolution that continues accelerating with computing power. Modern statistical methods now challenge expert intuition across diverse fields-from Orley Ashenfelter's Bordeaux wine price prediction formula based on just three weather variables to computerized horse race handicapping systems that outperform human experts. Frank Singer capitalized on this trend, raising $800,000 to develop his own system in Hong Kong. After two years developing a complex model with over 100 variables, Singer achieved 30% profits, sometimes earning tens of millions yearly. Despite their sophistication, computer models have serious limitations. The 2008 financial crisis partly stemmed from overreliance on models that created "idiot savants" with false authority. Similarly, during the UK's 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, poorly validated models using flawed data drove the culling of 10 million animals. Dr. Paul Kitching criticized how "seductive graphs" from modelers unfamiliar with the virus guided policy without expert input. The database itself was riddled with errors, including farms supposedly "situated in the North Sea." Mastering probability theory is neither necessary nor sufficient for risk intelligence. Many skilled handicappers rely on intuition rather than formal probability calculations, while mathematically gifted "nerds" often lack judgment in estimating probabilities. Even in casinos, where probability theory seems most applicable, real-world conditions differ from textbook ideals. As Nassim Nicholas Taleb notes, "computable risks are largely absent from real life!" Epistemic feelings-gut feelings about what we know-blur the traditional distinction between reason and emotion. These feelings are crucial for risk intelligence, facilitating communication between conscious and unconscious components of probability estimation. High risk intelligence depends on two factors: well-calibrated epistemic feelings (which accurately reflect your knowledge level) and the ability to translate these feelings into numbers.

들리는 모든 단어를 눈으로 확인하세요

리스크 지능의 각 단어가 오디오에 맞춰 실시간으로 강조되어 편하게 따라 읽을 수 있습니다.

7장

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

The challenge isn't just generating accurate probability estimates but knowing how to act on them. One simple approach is setting probability thresholds for action-deciding to take an umbrella only when rain probability exceeds 65%, or military commanders bombing a building only when there's over 80% certainty it houses insurgents. This method proved effective in Bangladesh's flood warning system, where warnings were issued only when flooding probability exceeded 80%. Bet sizing represents another approach to using probabilities in decision-making. Expert gamblers recognize their finite resources and size bets appropriately, using methods like the Kelly criterion which ensures bets never exceed a certain fraction of one's bankroll. Another complementary strategy is making bet sizes proportional to confidence levels, as seen in blackjack card counting systems where players adjust bets based on running counts. To properly size bets, we must accurately assess our confidence levels-this requires well-calibrated epistemic feelings. Like reading a thermometer, we need precise probability notches from 0-100%. While some argue against single-number probabilities as falsely precise, using probability ranges creates the same problem at a deeper level. Probability estimates are like physical measurements-they have inherent imprecision but remain useful. The 100 percent rule states that probabilities assigned to mutually exclusive possibilities must sum to 100%. This helps calibrate estimates by weighing possibilities against each other. In a murder mystery experiment, participants not instructed about this rule consistently assigned probabilities totaling more than 100% to suspects. As suspects are eliminated, the remaining suspects' probabilities must increase proportionally. Bayes's theorem provides a precise mathematical formula for how beliefs should be updated when new information arrives. Discovered by Reverend Thomas Bayes in 18th-century England, the theorem calculates the posterior probability of a hypothesis after considering new evidence. While early studies suggested people don't naturally follow Bayesian principles, recent research shows we're more Bayesian when dealing with familiar contexts. Griffiths and Tenenbaum found that people intuitively account for different statistical distributions when predicting movie run times versus box-office earnings.

8장

The Rational Gambler's Approach to Life

Expected utility theory provides a mathematical framework for rational decision-making by analyzing choices as gambles with potential gains and losses. Just as Galileo's inclined plane experiments isolated gravity for study, gambling strips decision-making to its essence. The theory quantifies all outcomes-even intangibles like happiness and health-into "utility points" and calculates expected value by multiplying potential outcomes by their probabilities. Every risky choice can be analyzed through four essential elements: the status quo (current situation), potential gain (reward if successful), potential loss (cost of failure), and chance of winning (probability of success). By converting all outcomes to utility points and calculating expected value, we can determine whether a gamble is worth taking. Thirteen-year-old Hannah Jones' decision to initially refuse a heart transplant demonstrates how expected utility calculations can clarify life-or-death choices. By weighing the potential benefits (a functioning heart, longer life) against the risks (painful procedures, possible failure, dying away from family), Hannah made what she considered a rational choice. Six months later, when doctors determined the operation carried less risk, she recalculated and chose to proceed with the successful transplant. Expected utility theory can be applied to major political decisions like the 2003 Iraq invasion. A rational approach would require listing potential benefits (removing Saddam Hussein, establishing military bases, securing oil reserves, spreading democracy) and assigning probabilities and utilities to each outcome. Similarly, potential costs must be assessed (casualties, financial costs, erosion of global support). The theory doesn't reveal an objectively optimal course, but forces transparency in reasoning. The same approach can help anticipate terrorist actions by modeling their decision-making process. A terrorist leader might calculate benefits (American casualties, economic damage, fear generation, recruitment) against costs (increased US support, loss of operatives, financial costs). Current terrorism risk assessment often neglects terrorists' values and beliefs, assuming irrationality rather than different utility calculations. Expected utility calculations in healthcare face serious concerns. The standard gamble method assumes people have good intuition about probabilities and doesn't account for variations in risk appetite. Most troubling, this approach assumes people can predict their feelings about health conditions, despite evidence showing "durability bias"-people consistently overestimate how long emotional reactions will last. Studies show even those with locked-in syndrome (near-total paralysis) often adapt and report happiness, with 47 of 65 patients in one study professing happiness and only 7% expressing a wish for euthanasia.

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9장

The Limits of Knowledge

Accurately assessing the limits of our knowledge is fundamental to risk intelligence. The danger lies not just in what we don't know, but in failing to recognize that gaps in our knowledge exist at all-what Donald Rumsfeld famously called "unknown unknowns." These are answers to questions we haven't even thought to ask, like the revolutionary theories of relativity and quantum mechanics that physicist Albert Michelson failed to anticipate when he declared physics nearly complete in 1894. When estimating probabilities, we must consider not just the ratio of what we know to what we know we don't know, but also account for information we don't even realize we're missing. This fundamental limitation means we can never provide completely reliable probability estimates outside idealized scenarios. Real-world problems often involve "Outside Context Problems" or "black swans"-unexpected events with massive impact that couldn't be anticipated. The Dunning-Kruger effect shows how incompetence creates a double burden: poor performance coupled with inability to recognize that poor performance. Paradoxically, as people become more competent in a domain, they become more aware of their limitations-converting unknown unknowns into known unknowns. This can lead the most skilled to underrate their abilities while the least skilled remain confidently ignorant. As Darwin noted, "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge." Expert gamblers demonstrate this awareness of their blind spots, understanding the boundaries of their knowledge. J.P. McManus exemplifies this trait-a billionaire who built his fortune first on horse betting then currency trading, yet remains brutally honest about his limitations. When playing backgammon, he would make deliberate mistakes to test opponents, stopping if they played well. Like other expert gamblers, he knew when not to bet and maintained detailed records of wins and losses to learn from mistakes. While much attention focuses on unknown unknowns, philosopher Slavoj Zizek highlights the equally important "unknown knowns"-information we possess but fail to use when solving problems because we don't recognize its relevance. These are knowledge fragments trapped in mental silos, disconnected from problems where they might prove useful. Risk intelligence involves liberating these facts from their information prisons by recognizing unexpected connections. Physicist Enrico Fermi developed a technique for transforming unknown knowns into known knowns through estimation problems. By breaking seemingly impossible questions (like "How many piano tuners are in Chicago?") into manageable subproblems, we discover we know more than we realized. This method involves establishing upper and lower bounds, then calculating reasonable estimates. Companies like Microsoft and Goldman Sachs now use "Fermi questions" in interviews to test candidates' ability to leverage existing knowledge for novel problems. Even perfect risk intelligence cannot guarantee success in a probabilistic world. Machiavelli claimed chance governs half our actions, comparing fortune to a violent river that overwhelms everything in its path. We must accept chance's irreducible nature while making the best probabilistic decisions possible. As Damon Runyon noted, "The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong-but that's the way to bet."

★★★★★

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100만 명 이상의 학습자가 사랑합니다

“23일째 매일 사용하고 있어요. 이제 제 일상의 한 부분이 되었습니다.”

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리스크 지능의 핵심 주제

probability estimation
cognitive calibration
uncertainty management
overconfidence bias
rational decision-making

리스크 지능의 명언

Risk intelligence isn't about knowing more facts; it's about knowing the limits of your knowledge.
Learning to feel comfortable with uncertainty is crucial for risk intelligence.

리스크 지능의 등장인물

Dylan EvansAuthor and expert on risk intelligence
KathrynDetective who assigns confidence levels to evidence
JamieBanker who calibrates loan risk assessments
Dr. ChenPhysician who balances treatment benefits and risks

저자 소개

Dylan Evans는 *리스크 인텔리전스: 불확실성 시대에 현명하게 결정하는 법(Risk Intelligence: How to Live with Uncertainty)*의 저자이자, 모호한 상황에서의 의사결정에 대한 학제간 접근법으로 유명한 행동과학 전문가입니다. 런던 정치경제대학교(LSE)에서 박사 학위를 받은 철학자이자 학자인 Evans는 글로벌 리스크 인텔리전스 컨설팅 회사인 Projection Point의 CEO와 Mindlab International에서의 경력을 바탕으로 엄격한 연구와 실무적 통찰력을 결합합니다.

그의 작업은 심리학, 확률 이론, 그리고 실질적인 전략을 연결하며, 이는 인지 편향을 분석하고 금융에서 대테러 활동에 이르는 다양한 분야에서 불확실성을 헤쳐나가기 위한 프레임워크를 제공하는 리스크 인텔리전스의 핵심 주제입니다.

Evans의 호평받는 저서로는 *감정: 감정의 과학(Emotion: The Science of Sentiment)*과 플라세보: 믿음의 효과(Placebo: The Belief Effect) 등이 있으며, 이를 통해 그는 인간 행동 분야의 사상적 리더로 자리매김했습니다. *인디펜던트 온 선데이(Independent on Sunday)*가 선정한 영국 최고의 젊은 작가 중 한 명인 그의 아이디어는 세계경제포럼 창립자 클라우스 슈밥(Klaus Schwab)과 같은 인물들의 지지를 받았으며 포춘 500대 기업들에 의해 적용되었습니다. 리스크 인텔리전스는 수십 년간의 연구를 실행 가능한 전략으로 요약하여, Evans를 현대 리스크 관리 분야의 선구적인 목소리로 각인시켰습니다.

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In an increasingly volatile world, traditional linear thinking often leads to catastrophic failure. This plan is essential for decision-makers, investors, and strategists who want to move beyond mere resilience and learn to profit from uncertainty.

5 h 30 m•4 섹션

학습 계획

Decisive Action Under Uncertainty

In fast-paced environments, the inability to choose often leads to missed opportunities. This plan is designed for leaders and professionals who need to overcome analysis paralysis and lead with confidence despite incomplete data.

1 h 12 m•3 섹션

학습 계획

Merge CIA Operator & Nassim Taleb Thinking

This plan bridges the gap between elite field intelligence and modern philosophical risk management. It is designed for leaders and strategists who must navigate unpredictable, high-stakes environments where traditional analysis is insufficient.

6 h 31 m•4 섹션

학습 계획

The Psychology of Social Intelligence

In an era of digital noise, the ability to accurately read people and manage high-stakes interactions is a critical competitive advantage. This plan is designed for leaders and professionals who want to master the hidden dynamics of human behavior to build trust and resolve friction.

1 h 36 m•4 섹션

학습 계획

The Management Shadow: Taleb/Kahneman/Greene

In an era of radical uncertainty, traditional management frameworks often fail because they ignore human irrationality and the impact of rare events. This plan is designed for leaders and strategists who want to master the hidden psychological and systemic forces that govern success and power.

4 h 43 m•4 섹션

샌프란시스코에서 컬럼비아 대학교 동문들이 만들었습니다

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1,000,000+ curious minds.

4.7

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1M+ learners

"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."

@Moemenn

"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."

@Chloe, Solo founder, LA

117

"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."

@Raaaaaachelw

"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."

@Matt, YC alum

108

"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."

@Erin, Investment Banking Associate , NYC

254

"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."

@djmikemoore

"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."

@Pitiful

4.5K

"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."

@SofiaP

"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"

@Jaded_Falcon

201

"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."

@OojasSalunke

"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."

@Leo, Law Student, UPenn

483

"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"

@Cashflowbubu

웹에서 BeFreed가 어떻게 논의되고 있는지 더 보기

샌프란시스코에서 컬럼비아 대학교 동문들이 만들었습니다

LOVED BY

1,000,000+ curious minds.

4.7

avg rating

1M+ learners

"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."

@Moemenn

"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."

@Chloe, Solo founder, LA

117

"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."

@Raaaaaachelw

"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."

@Matt, YC alum

108

"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."

@Erin, Investment Banking Associate , NYC

254

"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."

@djmikemoore

"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."

@Pitiful

4.5K

"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."

@SofiaP

"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"

@Jaded_Falcon

201

"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."

@OojasSalunke

"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."

@Leo, Law Student, UPenn

483

"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"

@Cashflowbubu

"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."

@Moemenn

"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."

@Chloe, Solo founder, LA

117

"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."

@Raaaaaachelw

"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."

@Matt, YC alum

108

"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."

@Erin, Investment Banking Associate , NYC

254

"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."

@djmikemoore

"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."

@Pitiful

4.5K

"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."

@SofiaP

"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"

@Jaded_Falcon

201

"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."

@OojasSalunke

"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."

@Leo, Law Student, UPenn

483

"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"

@Cashflowbubu

"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."

@Moemenn

"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."

@Chloe, Solo founder, LA

117

"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."

@Raaaaaachelw

"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."

@Matt, YC alum

108

"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."

@Erin, Investment Banking Associate , NYC

254

"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."

@djmikemoore

"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."

@Pitiful

4.5K

"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."

@SofiaP

"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"

@Jaded_Falcon

201

"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."

@OojasSalunke

"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."

@Leo, Law Student, UPenn

483

"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"

@Cashflowbubu

웹에서 BeFreed가 어떻게 논의되고 있는지 더 보기

지금 바로 학습 여정을 시작하세요

2장

리스크 지능

개요리스크 지능 개요

한 권의 책, 다양한 듣기 방식.

When Certainty Becomes a Liability

The Essence of Risk Intelligence

들리는 모든 단어를 눈으로 확인하세요

The Twilight Zone of Knowledge

Cognitive Illusions and Risk Blindness

리스크 지능에서 더 많은 것을 얻으세요

The Social Dynamics of Overconfidence

The Power of Numerical Thinking

들리는 모든 단어를 눈으로 확인하세요

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

The Rational Gambler's Approach to Life

리스크 지능에서 더 많은 것을 얻으세요

The Limits of Knowledge

리스크 지능 완독을 축하합니다

리스크 지능의 핵심 주제

리스크 지능의 명언

리스크 지능의 등장인물

저자 소개

리스크 지능 요약 다운로드

다른 사용자들도 좋아한 책

이 책에 대한 FAQ

What is Risk Intelligence by Dylan Evans about?

Who should read Risk Intelligence by Dylan Evans?

Is Risk Intelligence by Dylan Evans worth reading?

What is the definition of “risk intelligence” in the book?

더 알아보기

1,000,000+ curious minds.

1,000,000+ curious minds.

한 권의 책, 다양한 듣기 방식.

When Certainty Becomes a Liability

The Essence of Risk Intelligence

들리는 모든 단어를 눈으로 확인하세요

The Twilight Zone of Knowledge

Cognitive Illusions and Risk Blindness

리스크 지능에서 더 많은 것을 얻으세요

The Social Dynamics of Overconfidence

The Power of Numerical Thinking

들리는 모든 단어를 눈으로 확인하세요

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

The Rational Gambler's Approach to Life

리스크 지능에서 더 많은 것을 얻으세요

The Limits of Knowledge

리스크 지능 완독을 축하합니다

다른 사용자들도 좋아한 책

더 알아보기

리스크 지능 개요