Prediction Machines book cover

Prediction Machines by Ajay Agrawal & Joshua Gans & Avi Goldfarb Summary

Prediction Machines
Ajay Agrawal & Joshua Gans & Avi Goldfarb
3.86 (3773 Reviews)
Economics
AI
Technology
Panoramica
Punti Chiave
Autore
Domande Frequenti

Overview of Prediction Machines

Prediction Machines demystifies AI economics, showing how falling prediction costs transform business decisions. Nominated for Thinkers50's "Oscars of Management Thinking," this guide by Toronto's elite economists reveals why human judgment becomes more valuable as AI advances - not less.

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Punti chiave

1

The Quiet Revolution: When Prediction Became Cheap

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Imagine a world where machines can predict what you'll buy before you know you want it. Where your health problems are diagnosed before symptoms appear. Where traffic accidents become rare because vehicles anticipate hazards seconds before humans could notice them. This isn't science fiction-it's the economic revolution unleashed when prediction became cheap. The breakthrough moment came in 2012 at the ImageNet competition, when neural networks suddenly slashed image recognition error rates by an unprecedented margin. This triggered Google's $600 million acquisition of DeepMind and eventually prompted China's multi-billion-dollar AI investments. What happened? Prediction-filling in missing information using data you have-became radically cheaper, setting off ripples that continue transforming our economy and society. What makes this revolution so powerful yet deceptively subtle? When something fundamental becomes drastically cheaper-whether artificial light in the 1800s or prediction today-it transforms society in ways both expected and surprising. An improvement from 98% to 99.9% accuracy might seem modest, but it reduces errors twentyfold-enough to completely reshape industries. And prediction machines are now tackling problems we never previously thought of as prediction challenges: Google Translate improved by asking "what English text would a human translator produce?" rather than adding grammatical rules.

2

The New Economics of Intelligence

3

Data: The Lifeblood of Artificial Intelligence

4

Humans and Machines: The New Division of Labor

5

The Rising Value of Human Judgment

6

From Rigid Rules to Dynamic Intelligence

7

The Future of Work and Society

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"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."

@Chloe, Solo founder, LA
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"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."

@Raaaaaachelw
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"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."

@Matt, YC alum
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"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."

@Erin, Investment Banking Associate , NYC
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"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."

@djmikemoore
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"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."

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"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."

@SofiaP
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"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"

@Jaded_Falcon
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"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."

@OojasSalunke
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"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."

@Leo, Law Student, UPenn
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@Moemenn
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"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."

@Chloe, Solo founder, LA
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likes
117

"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."

@Raaaaaachelw
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star
star
star
star
star

"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."

@Matt, YC alum
platform
comments
12
likes
108

"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."

@Erin, Investment Banking Associate , NYC
platform
comments
254
likes
17

"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."

@djmikemoore
platform
star
star
star
star
star

"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."

@Pitiful
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96
likes
4.5K

"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."

@SofiaP
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star

"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"

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"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."

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"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."

@Leo, Law Student, UPenn
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483

"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"

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