
Will America and China go to war? Graham Allison's geopolitical masterpiece examines history's power transitions, where 12 of 16 cases ended in bloodshed. Required reading in both Washington and Beijing, President Biden calls Allison "one of the keenest observers of international affairs around."
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In 1492, Portugal and Spain stood at the brink of war. Both maritime powers claimed newly discovered lands across the Atlantic, and conflict seemed inevitable. Then something remarkable happened: they turned to Pope Alexander VI, who drew a line down the middle of the world map. Everything west belonged to Spain; everything east to Portugal. The Treaty of Tordesillas prevented war for nearly a century. It sounds almost quaint now-dividing the globe with a papal pen stroke. But it worked because both sides recognized a fundamental truth: the cost of conflict would exceed any potential gain. Today, we face a far more consequential version of this dilemma. China has risen with breathtaking speed, growing from an economy just 7% the size of America's in 1980 to one that now rivals or exceeds it by certain measures. This isn't just another geopolitical shift-it's what one statesman called "the biggest player in the history of the world" entering the game. And history whispers a dark warning: when a rising power challenges a ruling one, war follows in twelve of sixteen cases. The question isn't whether this pattern applies to US-China relations, but whether we're wise enough to become the exception.
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Creato da alumni della Columbia University a San Francisco

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