
While headlines scream "drug violence," Shannon K. O'Neil reveals Mexico's overlooked economic renaissance. This Yale-Harvard scholar challenges media narratives, offering policymakers a roadmap beyond NAFTA. What if our closest neighbor isn't the crisis zone you've been led to believe?
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Standing in Mexico City's airport in 1994, one could feel the optimism of a nation on the cusp of transformation. NAFTA was just beginning, the financial district buzzed with possibility, and Mexico seemed poised for prosperity. Yet by December, the peso had collapsed, businesses shuttered, and crime surged-the death throes of Mexico's once-dominant PRI political system. This rollercoaster journey reflects Mexico's complex reality-a country that defies simple characterization and has become increasingly vital to America's future. Mexico stands at a fundamental crossroads. Will it become a hub of North American prosperity with a thriving middle class like Spain, or will it succumb to violence and weak governance? Already ranking high on democracy indices and attracting substantial foreign investment, Mexico could leverage its U.S. ties to become a top-ten world economy. Alternatively, it could descend into a narco-state where cartels overwhelm democratic institutions. For the United States, the stakes couldn't be higher. A prosperous Mexico brings enhanced security, economic growth, and diplomatic partnership. A failed Mexico means waves of migrants fleeing north and massive security costs. What's certain is that building walls won't solve shared problems-our futures are permanently linked through deepening business, personal, and community relations that transcend politics.