
In "The Precipice," Oxford philosopher Toby Ord delivers a sobering yet hopeful examination of humanity's existential risks. Published during COVID-19, this "startling and rigorous" work gained prominence when The New Yorker declared it "made for the present moment." What narrow margins separate us from catastrophe?
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We stand at a pivotal moment in human history. For 200,000 years, our species has journeyed from small hunter-gatherer bands to a global civilization of unprecedented complexity. We've accomplished what no other species has: cooperation across both space and time. We pool knowledge with contemporaries and, more remarkably, across generations, allowing culture and technology to accumulate over millennia. But this extraordinary journey now faces its greatest test. With the first atomic bomb detonation in 1945, we entered an age where our technological power reached a threshold enabling self-destruction. For the first time, the threat to humanity from within exceeds threats from the natural world. What would it mean to lose everything? Not just billions of lives today, but trillions of future lives never lived, achievements never made, discoveries never revealed. Imagine nuclear war killing 99% of humanity, with survivors eventually rebuilding civilization. Now compare this with a war killing 100%. The difference between these scenarios isn't just quantitative-it's the difference between a terrible tragedy and the end of everything we could ever become. What's at stake isn't just our present, but our entire future potential.
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