Chapter 4
The Indian Ocean: The Future Sea of Power
The Indian Ocean, comprising 20% of Earth's surface and vast enough to fit three continental United States within its borders, has historically had less geopolitical impact than the Atlantic or Pacific. Unlike those oceans and particularly the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean has primarily been a zone of trade rather than conflict, driven by the predictable monsoon winds that enabled early commerce. This vast open seaway is now poised to increase in global importance as India rises in ambition and reach.
The Indian Ocean's history stretches back to ancient civilizations like the Harappans who traded along coastal waters 3000 years before Christ. The Periplus of the Erythraean Sea documents early commercial connections between the Mediterranean, Red Sea, African coast, and Indian subcontinent. Ancient sailors mastered the predictable monsoon winds-northeast monsoons in fall/winter and southwest in spring/summer-enabling reliable long-distance voyages.
Vasco da Gama's voyage of 1497-98 fundamentally altered global trade patterns. Building on Prince Henry the Navigator's work, he sailed down Africa's Atlantic coast, around the Cape of Good Hope, up East Africa to Malindi, and finally to Calicut in southwestern India. This journey-longer than circumnavigating Earth at the equator-was the longest ever conducted out of sight of land. Though celebrated upon returning to Portugal, da Gama's legacy is marred by atrocities, including burning alive hundreds of Muslim pilgrims. Despite these brutalities, his achievement opened the Indian Ocean to European powers.
Following Portugal's breakthrough, imperial competition intensified. The Ottomans emerged as competitors after conquering Egypt in the early 1500s, giving them access to the Red Sea. The British East India Company and Dutch East India Company pioneered the fusion of state power with commercial interests. By the late eighteenth century, Britain emerged dominant, creating a "British lake" in the Indian Ocean after seizing control of Oman, Kenya, and India.
Perhaps the most dangerous state-on-state confrontations exist around the Indian Ocean littoral today. While the Arabian Gulf "twilight war" between Saudi Arabia and Iran is serious, the most dangerous conflict is the nuclear-capable cold war between India and Pakistan. Their deep-seated hatreds stem from religious, cultural, and geographic tensions, particularly over the disputed Kashmir region.
In 2009, as Supreme Allied Commander for NATO, Stavridis inherited the mission to combat Somali piracy. Ex-fishermen fueled by khat would capture large container ships, overpower crews, and demand multi-million dollar ransoms. He built an unprecedented coalition beyond NATO's twenty-eight nations-Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and Iran all participated by sending ships, sharing intelligence, or providing logistical support. This grand nautical coalition demonstrated how nations normally at odds could cooperate effectively on shared maritime interests.
Throughout this book, maritime discussions typically focus on the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, yet the twenty-first century will be more about the Indian Ocean than either of the others. It carries 50 percent of all shipping and containers and 70 percent of all oil, making it the literal crossroads of globalization. Nearly forty nations border it, containing more than a third of the world's population. It's the beating heart of the Islamic world, with Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Gulf States all having coastal access.
Chapter 5
The Mediterranean: Mankind's First Maritime Battleground
Mankind's geopolitical journey upon the seas began in earnest on the waters of the Mediterranean. Through centuries of seafaring, it was in the Mediterranean Sea that sailors created and perfected the idea of war at sea. No other body of water can claim such a central place in early global history, particularly regarding naval warfare.
The Mediterranean's geography has shaped its history as a battleground. Key strategic features include Sicily-a prize fought over for three millennia, Italy's peninsula that bifurcates the sea, Malta's strategic position, and the rocky Aegean islands where Greek and Turkish tensions still play out. Named from Latin mediterraneus ("middle place between land"), the Romans called it mare nostrum ("our sea"). It served as a global commons for trade, transport, protein source, battlefield, and natural barrier.
The Mediterranean played a central role in developing maritime warfare technology and strategy. The sea gave birth to battering rams and triremes, specialized marines, accurate cannons, advanced sailing techniques, and eventually modern propulsion systems. Each combat advancement was tested and refined in Mediterranean waters.
Perhaps the earliest "clash of civilizations" occurred when Greek city-states faced the Persian Empire around 500 BC. After failed expeditions in 492 BC and at Marathon, Persian king Xerxes returned with overwhelming force-nearly 1,500 ships and 300,000 men against Greece's 500 vessels. At Salamis Bay, Admiral Themistocles led the outnumbered Greeks to victory through superior motivation and technology. The Greeks were free men fighting for their families and city-states, while most Persians were conscripts or slaves.
Despite their naval victory, the Greeks squandered their potential golden age by resuming internal conflicts. It was Rome who truly created the "inner sea" empire, ruling its complete periphery for centuries. The pivotal Battle of Actium in 31 BC solidified Roman domination of the Mediterranean. Following Julius Caesar's assassination and complex power struggles, Octavian (later Augustus Caesar) faced Mark Antony and Cleopatra in this decisive naval engagement off western Greece. This victory established the Pax Romana, creating the Mediterranean's most peaceful period in history.
Following Rome's decline came the Dark Ages and Islam's rise as both religion and geopolitical force. By the eleventh century, Christians launched the Crusades across the Mediterranean. These campaigns gave rise to Venice and other Italian commercial cities. Venice, strategically positioned in the northern Adriatic, pursued a sea power strategy focused on trading bases rather than territorial conquest.
The rapidly rising Ottoman Turks emerged from Central Asia, conquering the Arab world by 1400. Their greatest triumph came in 1453 when they captured Constantinople, ending the thousand-year Byzantine Empire. The fall of Cyprus to the Ottomans in 1570 finally alarmed competing European nations enough that Pope Pius V formed "the Holy League." The decisive Battle of Lepanto occurred on October 7, 1571, off western Greece, marking the high-water mark of Ottoman maritime ambitions.
Today's Mediterranean has returned to being a sea of conflict. Russia's resurgence has brought aggressive maritime behavior, particularly in the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean. Meanwhile, the Islamic State threatens Europe via sea lanes across the central Med, Israel remains at odds with neighbors, and disputes over natural gas fields near Cyprus create tension.
Chapter 6
The South China Sea: A Maritime Crossroads in Dispute
The South China Sea, a massive maritime region the size of the greater Caribbean, serves as the vital artery through which half the world's maritime trade, half its liquefied natural gas, and a third of its seaborne crude oil pass annually. Surrounded by major economies including China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, this sea has been a nexus of human habitation, trade, and conflict for thousands of years.
The South China Sea has been a vital trade network for millennia, with evidence of early maritime activity stretching back thousands of years. Its favorable conditions-abundant fish, plentiful rainfall providing fresh water-facilitated extensive early voyages. Trade connections linked the Mediterranean civilizations with the South China Sea rim, while the discovery of monsoon patterns significantly boosted commerce between India and Southeast Asia in the first centuries AD.
Throughout history, the region has witnessed the rise and fall of empires-from the early Funan Empire to the Chinese Tang and Song dynasties that dominated the western littoral a millennium ago. The Ming dynasty's "Eunuch Admirals" led massive naval expeditions of 100-200 ships to intimidate, enforce commercial codes, and project Chinese power across the region. Yet these voyages were anomalous, as China soon turned inward for five centuries.
By the 1930s, rising Japanese power was reshaping the South China Sea. Japan's need for natural resources drove its expansion from Taiwan to Vietnam, while the United States, emerging from economic depression, remained relatively impotent. For the first time in a millennium, the South China Sea essentially became the territorial sea of a single power-Japan-a situation that would take four years of war to reverse.
From America's entry into World War II, the South China Sea became a key strategic objective as it served as the highway for Japanese logistical support. After Pearl Harbor, Japanese forces struck the U.S. garrison in the Philippines, forcing General Douglas MacArthur to retreat to the Bataan Peninsula and Corregidor Island. By 1944, the tide had turned. The Battle of the Philippine Sea in June 1944 helped MacArthur position his forces to return to the Philippines. After the decisive Battle of Leyte Gulf, the South China Sea became "an American lake," and Japan's surrender followed soon after.
The major Cold War confrontation in the South China Sea was the Vietnam War. Despite President Eisenhower's reluctance to engage in Asian land wars, even after the French defeat at Dien Bien Phu in 1954, U.S. involvement escalated under Presidents Kennedy and Johnson. Nearly two million sailors served in theater, handling critical logistics-95 percent of all material and personnel traveled on Navy and merchant vessels.
China's aggressive construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea represents a new phase in the region's geopolitical contest. These islands-collectively dubbed "the great wall of sand" by Admiral Harry Harris-are part of China's strategy to enforce its "nine-dash line" claim, which international legal scholars widely regard as preposterous. The scale is staggering: nearly three thousand acres of artificial land created from the ocean floor-equivalent to hundreds of unsinkable aircraft carriers.
To counter China's South China Sea ambitions, Stavridis recommends four key approaches: maintain open communications with China despite provocations; strengthen regional alliances, particularly between historically uncomfortable neighbors like Japan and South Korea; emphasize international law, which clearly rejects China's "historical claim" approach; and continue Freedom of Navigation operations-sailing ships and flying aircraft through China's claimed waters and airspace.
Chapter 7
The Caribbean: America's Third Border
The Caribbean Sea's modern understanding begins with Christopher Columbus's 1492 voyage. Commanding the Nina, Pinta, and Santa Maria, Columbus reached what's now San Salvador in the Bahamas-a profound disappointment for a man seeking Asian treasures. Instead of silk and gold, he found Amerindian cultures living simply. Despite failing his original mission to find a western route to Asia, Columbus spun his narrative successfully enough to attract European interest and investment.
The Caribbean is immense-with the Gulf of Mexico included, it's larger than the Mediterranean at 1.6 million square miles, about half the continental United States. Shaped like a massive pot or volcanic rim, its western edge is formed by Florida pointing southward toward Cuba-an island so large it would stretch from Washington D.C. to Chicago, as a Marine Corps commandant once demonstrated to President Kennedy during Bay of Pigs briefings.
Just north of Colombia lies the Panama Canal, the beating heart of the American economy. Built on former Colombian soil after a U.S.-engineered coup, it opened in 1914 following much death and suffering among workers from throughout the Caribbean, directed by American engineers after a failed French attempt in the 1880s.
Pre-European Caribbean history remains poorly documented. Europeans categorized indigenous peoples simplistically: "Taino" (cooperative natives), "Carib" (warriors and cannibals), or "Arawak" (somewhere between). These weren't primitive societies-Caribbean natives had likely arrived thousands of years before Europeans, probably seeking land, freedom from South American oppressors, food, and fish, rather than gold and silk like European explorers. The overwhelming majority died in the decades following European arrival-truly an apocalypse for local inhabitants.
The Caribbean's next chapter began with Martin Luther's religious protest in 1517, leading to Protestantism and a schism in the Catholic faith that would fuel 150 years of war with lingering effects into the nineteenth century. These European religious conflicts inevitably spilled into the emerging Caribbean societies. The principal combatants were Spanish Catholics consolidating a massive American empire versus the Protestant English and Dutch raiders from the North Atlantic.
By the 1700s, the Caribbean's economic pattern was established: a slave labor-based model bringing Africans to produce sugar and other agricultural products shipped to Europe. Ships traveled a triangular route-from Europe to Africa collecting slaves, to the Americas with tradable goods and slaves, then back to Europe with Caribbean treasures. This shaped the Caribbean's destiny through the 1800s, until nations began rejecting slavery.
The Caribbean heated up during the Cold War with the rise of caudillos (military dictators) throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, which spawned freedom movements sometimes associated with communism. Cuba became ground zero after Fidel Castro's revolution. The region's most dangerous moment came during the ten-day Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962, when the Caribbean became the world epicenter of superpower confrontation.
Despite its challenges, the Caribbean has tremendous potential. It hasn't experienced major wars between nations for centuries, sits in the heart of the resource-rich Americas, maintains strong demographic connections with industrialized societies, offers natural trade routes, and retains valuable European connections.
Chapter 8
The Arctic Ocean: The Last Maritime Frontier
The Arctic Ocean holds a unique distinction among the world's waters-it is the only ocean never to have witnessed significant combat. While rusted weapons of long-dead sailors lie at the bottom of every other global waterway, the Arctic remains untouched by major warfare, existing as it does at the top of the world, historically beyond mankind's reach. Today it presents both the tantalizing possibility of becoming a zone of cooperation and peace, and the danger of conflict over its enormous resources.
The Arctic has long held a special place in human imagination. Historically, many Scandinavian nations referred to it as the "High North," and early cartographers like Gerardus Mercator in 1595 mistakenly depicted it as a temperate zone with arable land. The smallest of the world's great oceans, the Arctic remains mysterious and less mapped than the moon or Mars. By 2040, warming temperatures will create year-round passages, and by 2050 the North Pole will be ice-free. This ocean covers 5.4 million square miles and holds tremendous resources: 15% of undiscovered oil, 30% of undiscovered gas, and potentially a trillion dollars in minerals including nickel, platinum, and rare earth metals.
The Arctic's promise comes with significant perils. First is the brutal climate itself-a harsh, unforgiving environment that has claimed countless explorers. Second is confused governance. Five major nations border the Arctic Ocean-Russia, Canada, Norway, the United States, and Denmark (via Greenland)-creating competing jurisdictional claims. Third is intensifying geopolitical competition, particularly between NATO members and Russia. Perhaps most alarming is the environmental threat of melting permafrost, which could release 1,700-1,800 gigatons of carbon-equivalent methane, potentially triggering catastrophic climate effects globally.
The Russian Federation views the Arctic as central to its worldview, with the majority of its coastline above the Arctic Circle and the largest Arctic population (around four million). Russia approaches the Arctic with geopolitical clarity, seeing it as integral to its national identity as a land of rugged survivors in harsh conditions. Their infrastructure in the region is substantial, housing the North Sea Fleet and nuclear ballistic missile submarines, with increasing troop presence and expanding bases.
The United States has historically placed little emphasis on the Arctic, focusing instead on continental dominance and the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The first U.S. Arctic policy document wasn't issued until 2009, and it was "pretty thin reading" with little encouragement for resource allocation to the High North. With deteriorating U.S.-Russia relations, especially after the Ukraine invasion and Crimea annexation, Cold War patterns have resumed "with gusto."
To address these challenges, the United States must take decisive action. Key strategies include ensuring U.S. leadership in the Arctic Council by committing real resources and sending top officials; building more icebreakers (the U.S. has only three compared to Russia's 30-plus); taking a leadership position within NATO on Arctic issues; enhancing dialogue with Russia despite disagreements elsewhere; and taking a comprehensive interagency approach across all relevant government departments. The goal should be making the Arctic a zone of cooperation rather than competition or conflict.
Chapter 9
The Outlaw Sea: Confronting Maritime Lawlessness
The world's oceans function as a single interconnected system, with between fifty and sixty thousand large commercial ships traversing strategic highways and choke points at any given moment. Despite our extensive knowledge about the oceans, we lack wisdom about them as a coherent system. This becomes particularly evident when examining criminal activities and environmental damage occurring across the "outlaw sea"-what some call "the biggest crime scene in the world."
The rise of piracy in Somalia stems from several factors: extreme poverty and civil strife in Northeast Africa; diminished fishing livelihoods due to overfishing; calm waters conducive to small-boat attacks; and initially complacent shipping companies. By 2009, attacks peaked at over 300 annually with nearly twenty major ships held hostage. The international response involved warships from NATO, the EU, Gulf States, and even typically non-cooperative nations like Russia, China, and Iran-a rare example of global maritime cooperation.
Success came through multiple approaches: naval patrols with frigates and destroyers covering thousands of square miles; maritime patrol aircraft providing surveillance; organizing commercial ships into convoys; and shipping companies implementing defensive measures from barbed wire barriers to sonic devices. Most decisively, private armed security teams proved completely effective-no ship with such protection has ever been successfully hijacked.
The global fishing industry faces significant challenges from illegal and unsustainable practices. Nearly 90% of fish stocks are fully exploited or depleted, with some species like tuna declining by 50%. Problems include inaccurate measurement metrics, overfishing driven by greed and economic necessity, destructive practices like bottom trawling, government subsidies encouraging fleet overbuilding, flags of convenience enabling regulatory avoidance, and devastating bycatch accounting for 25% of the global catch.
The most egregious crime occurring at sea is the preventable environmental damage happening daily. While big incidents like the Deepwater Horizon or Exxon Valdez disasters shock the conscience, they're dwarfed by routine pollution-over 500 million gallons of oil entering oceans yearly through illegal dumping, automotive effluents, and oil-based pesticides flowing from rivers. Chemical pollution from industrial activities, contaminated silt, nonorganic fertilizers, and toxic chemicals like mercury accumulate in marine life. Plastics remain particularly damaging-even as they degrade into smaller pieces, they retain their composition and are increasingly found in the digestive systems of marine animals.
The outlaw sea requires enhanced international cooperation across international, interagency, and private entities. While the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea has been largely successful despite U.S. refusal to sign it, other efforts like the 2010 pledge to protect 10% of oceans by 2020 have fallen short, with only 2% designated as protected reserves. Future progress requires innovation through more protected marine areas, sanctuaries, certification programs for ecologically responsible companies, and partnerships with aquariums and environmental organizations.
Chapter 10
America's Maritime Destiny
America is fundamentally an island nation, bounded by oceans and dependent on global commerce, international markets, fishing, offshore resources, and strategic waterways. Our ability to navigate these waters, both literally and figuratively, will determine our nation's future.
The theories of Alfred Thayer Mahan, the influential naval strategist who graduated from the Naval Academy in 1859, still form the basis of American sea power. Mahan argued that national power derives from oceanic engagement through production leading to international trade, shipping (both merchant and naval), and a global network of bases to project sea power. He identified several conditions affecting a nation's sea power capability: geography, coastline length, population characteristics, commercial spirit, and government character.
If advising a modern president, Mahan would emphasize four key points: First, America must embrace its maritime identity by supporting a civilian merchant marine, powerful navy, robust shipbuilding, efficient ports, Arctic ice-breaking capability, and ocean surveillance systems. Second, the U.S. must defend the global commons-protecting high seas passage rights, supporting the UN Law of the Sea treaty, and challenging attempts to close waters like China's claims in the South China Sea. Third, America needs a strong system of alliances and partnerships worldwide. Fourth, public-private cooperation is essential, particularly in intelligence sharing, anti-piracy measures, and cybersecurity for shipping infrastructure.
Looking toward the future, we need "blue water" thinking that incorporates Mahan's timeless strategic principles-leveraging our geography, national character, and understanding the oceans' potential. Strategically, we must maintain control of the North Atlantic and Pacific, which flank the continental United States and provide crucial insulation. This requires approximately 350 battle force ships divided into at least twelve carrier battle groups-a fleet size validated by numerous studies over thirty years.
While sea power connects the global commons, each ocean requires distinct strategic consideration. In the North Pacific, we need a robust Seventh Fleet with advanced weapons systems. For the Indian Ocean, we must strengthen ties with India while maintaining a significant Fifth Fleet presence in the Arabian/Persian Gulf. In the Arctic, we need at minimum eight icebreakers plus transportation infrastructure and sea-based emergency platforms.
The nautical character of the United States remains vital for our security and prosperity, as we continue to rely on sea power and our sailors who stand on narrow hulls, rolling before the waves and wind, gazing at the eternal vista of the deep sea.
