Risk Intelligence by Dylan Evans Summary

Risk Intelligence explores how to make better decisions in uncertain situations by accurately estimating probabilities. Dylan Evans introduces "risk intelligence" as the ability to gauge the limits of one’s knowledge, balancing confidence and caution. The book uses real-world examples, from financial crises to airport security, to show how probabilistic thinking improves outcomes in business, healthcare, and daily life.

Professionals in finance, healthcare, and leadership roles will benefit from its insights on decision-making under uncertainty. It’s also valuable for psychology enthusiasts and anyone interested in avoiding cognitive biases. Evans’ blend of behavioral science and practical frameworks makes it accessible for both experts and general readers.

Yes. Publishers Weekly praises it as a “valuable manual,” blending psychology, mathematics, and real-world case studies. Evans’ expertise in behavioral science and his engaging writing style make complex concepts like probabilistic reasoning actionable. The book’s lessons on avoiding overconfidence and worst-case thinking remain highly relevant.

Risk intelligence is the ability to estimate probabilities accurately while recognizing the limits of one’s knowledge. Evans emphasizes that it involves knowing when to act confidently (with sufficient data) and when to seek more information. This skill helps navigate uncertainty in fields like finance, medicine, and crisis management.

• Ambiguity intolerance: Cultural tendencies favoring binary decisions over probabilistic thinking.
• Expert limitations: Overreliance on specialists with narrow knowledge.
• Probabilistic analysis: Using statistical reasoning to avoid overreacting to rare events (e.g., post-9/11 security measures).
• Risk vs. opportunity: Balancing downside risks and upside potential.

Evans argues that businesses often fail by ignoring probability-based strategies. For example, he critiques excessive focus on worst-case scenarios (e.g., costly security theater) and advocates for data-driven risk assessments. The book also highlights how overconfident executives contributed to the 2008 financial crisis.

Some readers find early chapters overly academic, though Evans balances theory with relatable examples like gambling strategies and forensic science. Critics note the “Risk Intelligence Test” focuses more on tolerance for ambiguity than actionable skills, but overall, the book is praised for its practicality.

Unlike Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow, which focuses on cognitive biases, Evans prioritizes calibrating confidence through probabilistic thinking. It complements works like Philip Tetlock’s Superforecasting by emphasizing self-awareness in uncertainty.

• “Risk intelligence is crucial to making good decisions, from climate change to terrorism.”
• “Science rarely proves anything conclusively—it weighs probabilities.”
• “The quicker you let go of false certainty, the sooner you adapt.”

With a PhD in philosophy and experience in behavioral science, Evans founded Projection Point, a risk consultancy advising hedge funds and private equity firms. His interdisciplinary approach—mixing psychology, economics, and real-world case studies—lends credibility to the book’s frameworks.

In an era of AI, global crises, and rapid technological change, Evans’ emphasis on probabilistic thinking helps individuals and organizations avoid binary decisions. The book’s lessons on managing uncertainty apply to contemporary challenges like algorithmic bias and pandemic response planning.

Evans compares risk-intelligent thinking to navigating a “darkened room”—acting decisively despite incomplete information. He also critiques the “CSI Effect,” where people demand unrealistic certainty, akin to expecting forensic TV-show conclusiveness in real-life scenarios.