Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers by Yan Xuetong Summary

Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers explores how political leadership determines the rise and fall of nations, arguing that strong leadership accelerates a state’s ascent in the international system. Yan Xuetong combines classical Chinese political philosophy with modern theories to analyze China’s growing influence and the US’s relative decline, emphasizing credibility, accountability, and moral realism.

This book is essential for students of international relations, policymakers, and readers interested in China’s geopolitical strategy. It offers unique insights for those seeking to understand non-Western perspectives on global power dynamics and the role of leadership in shaping historical trends.

Yes, the book provides a groundbreaking framework for analyzing global power shifts through the lens of political leadership and moral realism. Its blend of ancient Chinese thought and contemporary theory makes it a valuable resource despite critiques of uneven depth in explaining certain concepts.

Yan Xuetong is a distinguished Chinese political scientist, dean of Tsinghua University’s Institute of International Relations, and founder of “moral realism.” A top global thinker per Foreign Policy, he holds a PhD from UC Berkeley and is known for linking classical Chinese philosophy to modern IR theory.

Moral realism, developed by Yan Xuetong, posits that political leadership’s quality—measured by internal accountability and external credibility—determines a state’s power. It diverges from Western realism by emphasizing ethics and political determinism over material capabilities alone.

Yan argues leadership acts as a “multiplier” of national strength: competent leaders amplify a state’s influence, while poor decisions erode dominance. For example, he attributes US decline to leadership failures and China’s rise to strategic governance focused on credibility.

Yan criticizes US “anti-establishmentarianism” for undermining global institutions, while praising China’s focus on stability and credibility. He suggests China’s leadership model, rooted in ancient political philosophy, could outpace the US if it maintains disciplined governance.

The book draws heavily on thinkers like Xunzi to frame leadership ethics, arguing that pre-Qin philosophy offers timeless insights into statecraft. Yan uses concepts like “sage kings” and credibility to contrast Chinese strategic traditions with Western institutional approaches.

Critics note uneven depth—e.g., limited explanation of how leadership’s “multiplier effect” operates—and a lack of clear definitions for Chinese philosophical terms. Some argue Yan underestimates the US’s enduring structural advantages.

Yan challenges Western institutionalism by prioritizing political leadership over economic/military metrics. Unlike theories focusing on anarchy or democracy, he emphasizes moral authority and historical patterns from China’s imperial era.

Credibility is central to moral realism: Yan asserts that states gain influence by consistently fulfilling promises. He contrasts China’s focus on long-term trust-building with what he views as US short-termism and unpredictability.

The book foreshadows today’s tensions, arguing that US leadership failures (e.g., polarized politics) accelerate China’s rise. Yan advises China to leverage credible diplomacy and avoid the traps that diminished past superpowers.