Chaos Under Heaven by Josh Rogin Summary

Chaos Under Heaven examines the turbulent U.S.-China relationship during the Trump administration, detailing internal policy battles, factional rivalries, and pivotal events like Trump’s Taiwan call with Tsai Ing-wen. Rogin reveals how competing factions within the White House—from hardline “superhawks” like Steve Bannon to pragmatic advisers—shaped a disjointed strategy toward Xi Jinping’s China. The book underscores the clash between China’s long-term geopolitical ambitions and America’s chaotic policymaking.

This book is essential for policymakers, analysts, and readers interested in U.S.-China relations, modern geopolitics, or Trump-era foreign policy. Rogin’s insider accounts of White House debates and China’s global ambitions appeal to those studying bureaucratic infighting, authoritarian regimes, or 21st-century great-power competition. Students of international relations will find its critique of U.S. strategic incoherence particularly valuable.

Yes—critics praise it as the most comprehensive account of Trump’s China policy, blending rigorous journalism with vivid narratives of key players like Matt Pottinger and Peter Navarro. The Diplomatic Courier calls it a “must-read” for understanding China’s multifaceted threat, while the New York Journal of Books highlights its analysis of divergent U.S.-China strategic timelines.

Rogin identifies shifting alliances, including:

• Superhawks: Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro, who advocated aggressively confronting the CCP.
• Pragmatists: Officials like Matt Pottinger, who pushed for coordinated strategies through informal networks like the “Bingo Club”.
• Business-aligned advisers: Those prioritizing economic deals over human rights or security concerns.

These factions clashed over Taiwan, trade wars, and Huawei.

The book reconstructs Trump’s 2016 call with Taiwan’s president—a break from diplomatic norms—as a chaotic process driven by adviser infighting and poor coordination. Rogin reveals conflicting accounts from officials like Michael Pillsbury and Stephen Yates, showing how the incident symbolized U.S. policy disarray.

Pottinger, a key Asia adviser, emerges as a pragmatic counterweight to hardliners. Rogin credits his “Bingo Club” meetings with mid-level officials for crafting coherent strategies on issues like Hong Kong and tech competition, despite White House indifference. His efforts highlight the struggle to institutionalize China policy amid turnover and ideological divides.

Xi is portrayed as methodical and long-term-focused, advancing China’s “century of humiliation” narrative to justify expansionism. Trump’s approach is reactive, driven by personal diplomacy and internal chaos, undermining consistent counterstrategies. This dichotomy frames the book’s central tension: authoritarian planning vs. democratic dysfunction.

Rogin critiques congressional inaction, agency turf wars, and the lack of a unified China strategy. While career officials and analysts (like Pillsbury and Michael Pillsbury) proposed frameworks like the “Bill’s Paper” memo, their ideas were often overshadowed by White House volatility.

The book details Beijing’s efforts to exploit U.S. divisions—lobbying businesses, academic infiltration, and leveraging Trump’s transactional tendencies. Case studies include Huawei’s global expansion and China’s pressure on U.S. media and think tanks.

Despite focusing on 2017–2020, the book’s themes—U.S.-China tech rivalry, Taiwan tensions, and policy fragmentation—remain critical. Rogin’s warning about China’s systemic threat and America’s preparedness gaps resonates amid ongoing semiconductor conflicts and South China Sea disputes.

Unlike academic treatises or memoir-focused accounts, Rogin combines investigative reporting with policy analysis, offering a granular view of decision-making. It complements broader histories like Elizabeth Economy’s The Third Revolution by zooming in on Trump-era volatility.

While no direct quotes are reprinted, Rogin’s narrative centers on NSC official Matt Pottinger’s lament: “We had no strategy—just a series of reactions.” This captures the book’s critique of U.S. strategic incoherence versus China’s patient ambition.