第 1 章
The Future Is Coming, Ready or Not
Imagine a world where space elevators transport people and cargo to orbiting stations at a fraction of today's costs, where medical nanobots patrol your bloodstream hunting for cancer cells, and where your home transforms its shape based on your needs and the weather. According to Kelly and Zach Weinersmith, authors of "Soonish," this isn't just science fiction-it's where technology is headed, though the timeline remains uncertain. The book has garnered praise from tech luminaries like Elon Musk and Bill Gates, with the latter calling it "a wild glimpse into a future that may or may not be right around the corner." What makes "Soonish" stand out in the crowded field of futurist literature is its blend of rigorous scientific analysis and irreverent humor, making complex technological concepts accessible without sacrificing depth. As we navigate an era of accelerating technological change, the Weinersmiths offer a refreshingly honest roadmap to the future-one that acknowledges both the breathtaking potential and the messy, unpredictable path of innovation.
第 2 章
Space: The Not-So-Final Frontier
Getting to space is absurdly expensive-about $10,000 per pound, which means sending a cheeseburger to orbit would cost roughly $2,500. This prohibitive expense explains why human space exploration has stagnated since 1969 despite our technological advances in other areas. The fundamental problem is that rockets are mostly propellant (about 80%), with only 4% dedicated to actual cargo. Yet ironically, the propellant is the cheapest component while the discarded rocket represents most of the cost.
Several approaches could dramatically lower these costs. Reusable rockets, like those developed by SpaceX, potentially eliminate up to 90% of launch costs by recovering the vehicle instead of discarding it after one use. While Elon Musk's claims of 100x cost reduction seem optimistic, even SpaceX's more modest 30% discount could revolutionize space access. Air-breathing rockets and spaceplanes offer another solution by using atmospheric oxygen for part of their journey, reducing the propellant they need to carry. The British firm Reaction Engines is developing the Skylon vehicle with its SABRE engine, designed to efficiently switch between air-breathing and rocket modes.
More exotic approaches include space guns-enormous cannons that would use a single ground-based explosion rather than carrying propellant to space. While the extreme acceleration would destroy any living cargo, "hardened" payloads like specially designed electronics and raw materials could be sent to orbital factories. The ultimate solution might be a space elevator-a 62,000-mile-long cable attached to a counterweight rock orbiting Earth. This would eliminate discarded parts, dangerous explosives, and atmospheric reentry problems, potentially reducing launch costs to under $250 per pound.
However, cheap space access brings serious risks. Military applications like "rods from God"-heavy metal rods dropped from orbit with nuclear-bomb-like impact-could emerge. Environmental concerns include increased pollution from rocket fuels and worsening orbital debris problems. There's even concern about potential genetic divergence between Earth and space-dwelling humans as small isolated populations in different gravity and radiation environments could develop into distinct species.
Despite these concerns, the benefits would be transformative. At prices of $250-$500 per pound, we could launch an International Space Station equivalent monthly for $5 billion instead of $100 billion. This would enable better satellite systems, improved communications, and precise GPS. Most importantly, space would finally open to adventurers and risk-takers, not just government agencies with their risk-averse approach to human spaceflight.
第 3 章
Mining the Cosmic Junkyard
The Earth's formation process sent heavy elements like gold and platinum toward its core, making them scarce at the surface. Asteroids-essentially planet-building junk that never fully coalesced-offer an alternative source of these valuable materials. These space rocks come in three types: carbonaceous (containing water and carbon), stony (rich in silicates), and metal (mostly iron and nickel). While mining these resources for Earth markets faces economic challenges, harvesting materials already in space could be crucial for future space settlements.
Landing on asteroids presents unique difficulties-they have almost no gravity, so touching down risks bouncing off. Scientists have developed multiple solutions including drilling, harpoons, glue, clasping mechanisms, and gecko-like sticky "feet." Dr. Karen Daniels proposes a plant root-inspired system with little diggers that work between rubble pieces and link for support. Alternative approaches include netting entire asteroids or using TransAstra's APIS (Asteroid Provided In-Situ Supplies), which captures asteroids in bags and uses concentrated sunlight for "optical mining."
As asteroid mining develops, we'll need space law enforcement to police these valuable floating resources. We'll also need to balance exploitation with preservation, potentially creating asteroid parks to protect unique space formations. Safety presents another concern-if asteroid-moving technology becomes widely available, it could become a dangerous weapon. Even a relatively small object like the one that caused the 1908 Tunguska event created an explosion 185 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.
While returning space-mined materials to Earth might be economically challenging, the greater benefit would be enabling space settlement and exploration. Using space resources to manufacture in space would dramatically reduce costs. Water and carbon from asteroids could be converted to rocket fuel, enabling travel between colonies or further exploration. This excites visionaries who see asteroid mining as crucial to humanity becoming a multiplanetary species.
第 4 章
Fusion: The Ultimate Clean Energy
Nuclear fusion represents the ultimate clean energy solution, using common elements as fuel without risk of catastrophic meltdowns. Fusion occurs when two hydrogen atoms combine to form helium, releasing enormous energy in the process-similar to how a taut crossbow string contains more energy than a loose one, with this energy difference released when fusion occurs.
Different hydrogen isotopes have varying fusion potential. Standard hydrogen (hydrogen-1 or protium) makes up 99.98% of all hydrogen and has just one proton. Deuterium (0.02% of hydrogen) adds one neutron, while tritium adds two neutrons but is unstable with a 12.32-year half-life. Heavier isotopes fuse more easily because they have more mass to overcome the electromagnetic repulsion between atoms.
The fundamental challenge is creating sunlike conditions on Earth without using gravity. Amateur scientists like Richard Hull have achieved small-scale fusion using electrified cage devices called fusors, which can be built for around $3,000. However, these amateur devices are energy-negative, consuming more power than they produce. Professional approaches generally fall into two categories: blasting all fusion fuel at once (like NIF's approach) or confining and heating plasma over time using magnetic fields.
The National Ignition Facility (NIF) splits a mega-powerful laser into 192 beams that converge on a gold cylinder containing fusion fuel. The MagLIF (Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion) project at Sandia Labs works by taking a chilled cylinder of fusion fuel, blasting it with a powerful laser to rapidly heat it, then using an enormous electrical discharge to create a magnetic field that collapses the cylinder. ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) is the biggest fusion experiment using a "tokamak" configuration-essentially a giant donut filled with plasma confined by magnetic fields.
Unlike fission reactors, fusion reactors produce no greenhouse gases or long-lived radioactive waste-only helium and neutrons. Any irradiated reactor components would have relatively short radioactive lifespans and could be recycled within about a hundred years. Fusion reactors have no meltdown risk-they're so difficult to maintain that any containment loss would immediately stop the reaction "like a candle in the wind."
Fusion energy would provide an essentially limitless fuel source with minimal environmental impact. Economically viable fusion would mean cheaper energy and subsequently lower prices for consumer goods, especially in energy-intensive industries. Fusion could also revolutionize space travel by providing safe, abundant energy for spacecraft that could potentially collect hydrogen fuel throughout the solar system.
第 5 章
Matter That Programs Itself
What if all your possessions could transform like your computer can run different programs? Unlike most physical objects that serve single purposes, programmable matter represents the dream of making hardware as adaptable as software. Scientists worldwide are working toward materials that can morph between forms-from bicycles that become chairs to phones that unfold into laptops.
MIT's Professor Skylar Tibbits specializes in materials programmed to transform themselves without human intervention. His "4D printing" creates 3D-printed objects that change over time based on environmental triggers like moisture or temperature. Similarly, the "HygroScope" features wood pieces that bend in response to humidity, creating biological-looking structures without motors or computers.
Origami robots represent another powerful approach through their ability to transform from flat materials into complex functional structures. Dr. Daniela Rus at MIT has developed a remarkable biodegradable robot made from pig intestine that can be swallowed in an ice pill. Once in the gut, it unfolds and can perform medical tasks like retrieving swallowed batteries before naturally dissolving. These origami principles could enable even smaller medical robots capable of delivering medicine to specific locations or forming surgical tools inside the body.
In dense urban environments, reconfigurable houses demonstrate space efficiency with rooms that serve multiple functions. The Animated Work Environment features a scorpion-like tail of six aluminum panels containing screens, whiteboards, lights and sensors that can transform to create privacy dividers, group displays, or personalized work environments. The LIT ROOM takes this concept further with movable, bendable walls that respond to storytelling-creating immersive environments like mountaintops or rainstorms.
Roombots from Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne represent a breakthrough in reconfigurable furniture. These rounded cubes can rotate, move by wiggling or forming wheels, and dock with each other or specially designed receivers. This allows them to climb walls, transform ordinary objects like wooden planks into functional furniture, or create adaptive pieces that adjust height and shape for elderly or disabled users.
David Duff's "Bucket of Stuff" vision represents the ultimate programmable matter-material that transforms into any needed tool. Rather than requesting specific tools, you might simply state your goal ("loosen this screw") and the substance determines the best approach. However, significant challenges remain. Each bit needs versatility (combining strong and flexible properties), and the intelligence problem is thorny-too little smarts makes functionality difficult, while too much requires miniature power sources for each particle.
Programmable matter introduces serious security concerns. Hacking becomes more dangerous when your household objects can physically reshape themselves. Reliability is another major issue-as Professor Tibbits notes, "We're giving agency to the materials," raising questions about responsibility when programmable materials fail. Military applications range from soldier-carried reconfigurable tools to surveillance-imagine microscopic programmable matter creating cameras and transmitters anywhere.
Despite these concerns, programmable matter could revolutionize efficiency through adaptation. Just as plants change with seasons and human bodies adapt to conditions, buildings and vehicles could dynamically respond to their environment. A shape-changing house could maximize use of sunlight, heat, and water while remaining aesthetically pleasing. Cars could have tires that automatically adjust their grip based on weather conditions, and scramjet engines could morph their shape for optimal performance at different speeds and altitudes.
第 6 章
Robots Building Our Future
Thomas Edison proposed in 1917 that houses could be built by pouring concrete into configurable molds, but the idea never gained widespread acceptance. Despite remarkable advances in robotics, artificial intelligence, and computing power, modern house construction remains surprisingly similar to methods from a century ago. This stands in stark contrast to most consumer goods, which are now manufactured quickly and cheaply through automated processes.
The challenge is that houses are large, complex structures built from diverse materials that must be assembled in specific sequences at unique locations. Unlike cars manufactured in factories, houses can't be easily mass-produced in standardized environments. However, recent advances suggest robot-made housing might finally be possible, potentially increasing construction speed, improving quality, and lowering costs while enabling more creative architectural designs.
Three main approaches represent construction's future: robotic construction workers, giant 3D printers, and swarm robots. The challenge of creating robotic construction workers illustrates Moravec's Paradox-tasks easy for humans (like laying bricks) are surprisingly difficult for machines. Despite these challenges, companies like Construction Robotics have created SAM (semi-automated mason), which can lay bricks three times faster than humans when paired with a worker.
3D printing houses presents unique challenges requiring materials that start malleable but become structurally sound. Dr. Khoshnevis's Contour Crafting system uses a gantry-mounted robotic arm to build concrete layers while incorporating plumbing and window/door spaces, potentially building a 2,000-square-foot house in just 24 hours at 60% of traditional costs. Dr. Keating and Dr. Oxman at MIT have developed a more versatile alternative: a self-driving truck-mounted robot that can 3D print while moving, adjust for wind fluctuations, work with various materials (including glass), and operate on solar power.
Instead of a single giant robot building your house, swarm robots work together like termites, which build structures thousands of times larger than themselves without central coordination. Researchers like Dr. Justin Werfel and Dr. Kirstin Petersen have developed independent construction robots with "whegs" (wheel-leg hybrids) that pick up specially designed bricks and place them according to simple programmed instructions.
Robot-built housing might actually be safer than human construction, as integrated sensors can constantly monitor the building process to prevent errors. But what about construction jobs? The field already lost over 837,000 jobs between 2004 and 2014, though projections show potential gains through 2024. The economic impact is complex-technologies like SAM that replace multiple workers might not reduce total employment if construction becomes cheaper and demand increases.
Robotic construction could address urgent humanitarian crises. For refugee populations like the 11 million Syrians displaced by civil war, technologies like Contour Crafting could rapidly provide housing with basic plumbing. For average homeowners, robotic construction could democratize beautiful architecture. With open-source designs and robots doing the work, the cost difference between simple and complex layouts might become negligible. For space exploration, robotic construction offers particular advantages-Dr. Khoshnevis is working with NASA on using Contour Crafting for building landing paths, roads, and habitable structures on Mars before humans arrive.
第 7 章
Reality, Enhanced
Augmented reality (AR) overlays virtual elements onto the real world, enhancing reality rather than replacing it entirely like virtual reality (VR) does. While VR completely occupies your sensory inputs with computer-generated content, AR only partially alters your perception, allowing you to interact with both real and virtual elements simultaneously. Currently, AR primarily focuses on visual augmentation, though a complete system would eventually incorporate all senses.
The key challenge in AR is achieving proper "registration"-ensuring virtual elements interact convincingly with real-world objects and maintain their proper position as users move. This requires sophisticated hardware, software, and understanding of human perception. Early AR systems used "fiducial markers" (similar to QR codes) as reference points for placing virtual objects in physical space. Modern systems have evolved beyond traditional markers, becoming smart enough to place objects independently by recognizing environmental features.
GPS alone can't provide the precision AR requires, offering only meter-level accuracy that's even worse for elevation. Instead, modern systems use visual recognition techniques that mimic human orientation methods. More advanced systems use LiDAR (light detection and ranging) to create accurate 3D environmental models by bouncing laser light off objects.
While visual AR dominates research, some scientists are developing technologies for other senses. Audio AR faces challenges like correctly timing sounds to reach each ear, simulating motion through changing pitch and intensity, and replicating environmental acoustics like echoes. Smell presents greater difficulties since odors can't be produced from simple component combinations. Touch research has produced "haptic pens" that provide resistance when users interact with virtual objects.
Google Glass's public rejection demonstrated that social acceptance remains crucial for AR adoption. Companies like Innovega are developing less conspicuous alternatives, including contact lens systems. Current applications showcase AR's diverse potential: Dr. Billinghurst's "magic books" that make plants grow from pages; Dr. Ventura's outdoor system for visualizing landscape designs; Dr. Schall's "X-ray vision" for city workers to see underground infrastructure; and "virtual mirror interfaces" that create windows into augmented worlds.
Privacy issues loom large with AR technology. Software like Recognizr can detect and track faces, potentially allowing reconstruction of your daily movements and emotional states. The ultimate AR machine wouldn't just track visual data but would scan everything in 3D, hear, and even smell-creating unprecedented data collection opportunities for companies. "Diminished reality"-the ability to selectively filter out unwanted aspects of reality-presents ethical concerns about avoiding uncomfortable truths like homelessness or enemy combatants' emotions.
Beyond revolutionizing entertainment, AR offers transformative educational potential by allowing students to interact with complex concepts. AR represents the next step in our historical offloading of cognitive tasks. Just as writing freed us from memorization, AR could handle spatial reasoning and procedural memory-showing step-by-step instructions for tasks like printer repair or cooking, dramatically increasing efficiency and reducing training time. In medicine, applications range from virtual breast augmentation previews to surgical assistance, where MRI scans can be projected onto patients during operations.
At its grandest, AR offers a reconciliation between our technological world and our imaginative one-letting us populate our environment with dragons, pixies, or even representations of departed loved ones. It's a technology that could remake reality according to our imagination, bringing wonder back into a world that has discarded many comforting myths.
第 8 章
Biology by Design
Humans have been manipulating biology for millennia, from transforming wolves into tiny dependent dogs to turning a single species (Brassica oleracea) into everything from broccoli to kale. Traditionally, we've done this through selective breeding, unknowingly altering DNA over many generations. But synthetic biology represents something more precise-deliberately engineering organisms by directly manipulating their genetic code.
DNA is essentially a twisted ladder (double helix) where the "rungs" consist of paired molecules called bases-T always pairs with A, and C with G. If you read these bases in order, they form a code that's essentially the blueprint for making proteins. Genes are sections of DNA that appear to control particular traits, though most characteristics result from multiple genes working together in complex ways.
Synthetic biology began in the 1970s with complex methods that nevertheless revolutionized medicine. Human insulin production in E. coli bacteria replaced animal-derived insulin, eliminating allergic reactions and the need for mass animal slaughter. While we've controlled many diseases, malaria remains stubborn with 214 million cases and 438,000 deaths in 2015. Scientists engineered brewer's yeast to produce artemisinic acid (easily converted to artemisinin) after a decade of complex genetic modifications. More ambitiously, researchers developed gene drives that could spread malaria resistance through mosquito populations.
Dr. Pamela Silver's lab at Harvard created bacteria that can "remember" their environment by encoding experiences into their DNA. They designed synthetic DNA loops that activate under specific conditions and continue producing detectable chemicals across cell generations. These programmable bacterial sensors could detect conditions like oxygen deprivation in tumors. When paired with Silver's work on "protein pistons" that break cell membranes to release cargo, this creates the possibility of targeted drug delivery systems.
Xenotransplantation offers tremendous potential through "humanizing" pig organs. By genetically modifying pigs to produce organs molecularly similar to human ones, scientists have already kept a pig heart alive in a baboon for over two years. The technology works by altering pig genetics to make their molecules less recognizably foreign to human immune systems. A major concern is preventing the transfer of porcine endogenous retroviruses (PERVs) from pigs to humans-a challenge researchers at eGenesis are addressing using CRISPR-Cas9 to cut these viral elements out of pig DNA.
Cells are nature's master chemists, and synthetic biology is harnessing this power for fuel production. Dr. Dan Nocera discovered a catalyst that splits water into hydrogen and oxygen-mimicking photosynthesis. Dr. Pamela Silver's lab improved the concept by introducing genetically modified bacteria that combine the hydrogen with carbon dioxide to produce isopropanol, a usable fuel. Their system now exceeds the efficiency of algae, nature's best photosynthesizer.
The revolutionary CRISPR-Cas9 system has transformed genetic modification from difficult and expensive to accessible and precise. Discovered by Drs. Jennifer Doudna and Emmanuelle Charpentier, this technique leverages bacterial immune systems that remember viral attackers by storing snippets of their genetic code. Scientists have adapted this system to precisely edit genes in living cells-when DNA is cut, cells attempt to repair themselves, allowing researchers to insert new genetic material at targeted locations.
The democratization of synthetic biology raises serious security concerns. As technology to manipulate life becomes cheaper and more accessible, bioterrorism risks increase dramatically. Another concern is ecological-synthetic organisms might become invasive by accident. Bacteria designed to produce chemicals like jet fuel could escape into natural environments, potentially exchanging genes with wild organisms despite scientists' efforts to prevent this.
Despite these concerns, synthetic biology promises to transform our world in astonishing ways. As Dr. George Church notes, scientists are now "limited by imagination" rather than tedious experiments. The technology could enable storing massive amounts of data in DNA-up to 10 billion gigabytes in a space smaller than a water drop, with a 500-year half-life. In space exploration, synthetic organisms could manufacture products and recycle waste, making settlements on other planets more feasible. Perhaps most remarkably, scientists have already created entirely new forms of DNA with additional letters beyond the natural A, C, T, and G. This expanded genetic alphabet can produce 172 amino acids instead of the natural 20, opening possibilities for proteins never before seen in nature.
第 9 章
Medicine Tailored Just for You
Modern medicine represents a dramatic improvement over pre-19th century treatments like bloodletting and hedgehog grease. Today's doctors act as detectives, interpreting clues about your body's condition through careful observation and scientific knowledge. This partnership between practicing physicians and scientific researchers ensures treatments are based on empirical evidence rather than tradition.
The field of precision medicine has transformed dramatically in recent decades. Dr. John Mendelsohn of MD Anderson Cancer Center notes that when he began his career, scientists didn't even know DNA was our genetic material, and experimental data could fit on a single sheet of paper. Today, sequencing one human genome generates five billion data points, and MD Anderson sequences thousands of cancer patients' DNA annually.
While genome sequencing has become relatively affordable, curing genetic disorders remains challenging because you'd need to alter DNA in all relevant cells throughout the body. For conditions like cystic fibrosis, which causes thick mucus buildup in organs, treatments have traditionally managed symptoms rather than addressing root genetic causes. The drug ivacaftor targets a specific mutation found in only 5% of cystic fibrosis patients-exemplifying precision medicine's goal of matching treatments to specific genetic variants. CRISPR gene-editing technology offers hope for actually fixing these mutations, having already shown promise in lab tissue samples.
Cancer cells are dangerous because they resemble normal cells while evading immune detection. Early diagnosis dramatically improves survival rates-lung cancer detected early has a 55% five-year survival rate versus just 5% when found after metastasis. Blood biomarkers like microRNA offer promising detection methods for various cancers. These small molecules help regulate gene expression by adjusting how many times proteins are created from genetic instructions. Another breakthrough is ctDNA (circulating tumor DNA), which can detect stage 1 lung cancer 50% of the time and stage 2 cancer 100% of the time.
Cancer cells evade your immune system like killer robots mimicking humans. The solution? Teaching your immune system to recognize and destroy these imposters. T cells are particularly valuable because they can both kill other cells and maintain "memory" of threats. By genetically modifying T cells to target specific antigens like CD19 on cancerous B cells, we can create powerful weapons against blood cancers. For solid tumors like brain cancer, Dr. Maus engineers T cells to attack only cells with specific markers like EGFRvIII, which appear on tumor cells but not healthy brain tissue.
Your metabolome-the roughly 42,000 small molecules your body operates on-explains why medications affect people differently. While one person stays awake after coffee, another sleeps soundly after espresso. These metabolic variations might explain why some depressed patients don't respond to any drugs. Understanding your unique metabolome could revolutionize treatment selection, allowing doctors to avoid ineffective medications and find the perfect match.
Precision medicine faces significant privacy challenges. As Dr. Matthews explains, "Once you connect genetics with your records...there is no anonymity anymore." This means employers or insurers could potentially access information about your likelihood for mental illness or disease. Insurance fundamentally works because it's difficult to predict who will get sick when. As medicine becomes more personalized, this system becomes less tenable-those with favorable genotypes might pay less while those with unfavorable ones pay more.
While precision medicine techniques will initially be expensive, they ultimately have the potential to drive medical costs down by detecting diseases earlier, selecting the right treatments immediately, curing genetic conditions rather than just treating symptoms, and benefiting from the tendency of computer-related industries to deliver more for less over time. Companies like Google's parent Alphabet are already investing in biomarker identification through the Baseline Study. Precision medicine offers the appealing approach of asking "What's wrong with you?" instead of "What's wrong with people like you?"-bringing the personalized dreams of the magical age into scientific reality.
第 10 章
The Future Arrives in Fits and Starts
Before writing this book, Kelly and Zach were the sort of people who nitpicked minor inaccuracies in popular science books-"the geeky equivalent of the nacho enthusiast who spits insults from the sidelines of a football match." Now finding themselves on the field, they've attempted to balance information and humor while maintaining accuracy, though they acknowledge the challenge of condensing so much material.
The book evolved from its original concept of brief overviews ("tapas for meganerds") to more in-depth explorations with weird specifics and obscure stories. This transformation meant many originally planned topics were cut or combined. These abandoned chapters included space-based solar power (which fails economically even at optimistic future launch costs), advanced prosthetics (where the most exciting developments overlapped with brain-computer interface technology), room-temperature superconductors (which would enable frictionless connectors and high-speed maglev trains), and quantum computing (which nearly "broke" the authors with its complexity).
If you're young, many of these technological revolutions may happen in your lifetime, and you can participate by reaching out to the academics working on them. Most aren't famous-they're working scientists who can be approached with simple gestures (even cookies might suffice). Unlike many futurist books, the authors avoid selling you on a specific philosophy or vision of the future. The excitement lies in knowing that brilliant minds are currently working on reading your thoughts neuron by neuron or extracting alien minerals from distant worlds.
L.P. Hartley wrote that "the past is a foreign country," and the future is equally foreign. We're trapped in the landlocked nation of The Present, with only a narrow band of horizon visible before the future curves away. But what a magnificent horizon it is!
