What is *Rogue Waves* by Jonathan Brill about?

*Rogue Waves* teaches businesses to survive and profit from radical change by likening unpredictable market shifts to ocean rogue waves. Jonathan Brill introduces the "ABCs of Resilient Growth"—Awareness, Behavior Change, and Culture Change—providing frameworks to anticipate disruptions, adapt operations, and foster innovation. The book combines real-world examples (e.g., Toyota’s post-tsunami recovery) with strategies for long-term resilience.

Who should read *Rogue Waves*?

Business leaders, innovation champions, and decision-makers in large organizations will benefit most. It’s ideal for those committed to systemic operational shifts, risk mitigation, and leveraging chaos for growth. Curious readers interested in global trends like AI, automation, and geopolitical shifts will also gain actionable insights.

Is *Rogue Waves* worth reading?

Yes, if you seek actionable frameworks to future-proof your organization. Endorsed by Adam Grant as “an actionable framework for driving change,” it balances theory with tools like environmental scanning and iterative experiments. However, its focus on large-scale cultural shifts may overwhelm smaller teams.

What are the ABCs of Resilient Growth in *Rogue Waves*?

1. **Awareness**: Scan for emerging risks (e.g., technological, social, or economic undercurrents). 2. **Behavior Change**: Test adaptive strategies through rapid experimentation. 3. **Culture Change**: Embed resilience into organizational DNA by rewarding innovation and agility. This triad helps businesses turn volatility into advantage.

How does *Rogue Waves* use the rogue wave metaphor?

Brill compares sudden, catastrophic business challenges (e.g., COVID-19, cybersecurity breaches) to rogue waves—unpredictable but survivable with preparation. The metaphor underscores the need for proactive risk detection and adaptive strategies, arguing that navigating these “waves” separates industry leaders from casualties.

What are key frameworks in *Rogue Waves*?

- **Environmental Scanning**: Identify early indicators of disruption. - **Resilience Hierarchy**: Prioritize risk mitigation, operational flexibility, and cultural adaptability. - **Iterative Experimentation**: Use small-scale pilots to test responses to hypothetical crises. These tools aim to convert uncertainty into strategic opportunity.

What are criticisms of *Rogue Waves*?

Some argue its focus on large organizations with ample resources limits applicability for startups. Critics also note the ABCs framework, while comprehensive, requires sustained leadership commitment, which may deter short-term-focused teams.

What is Jonathan Brill’s background?

A top-ranked futurist by *Forbes* and “transformation architect” per *Harvard Business Review*, Brill directed long-term strategy at HP, advised Fortune 50 companies, and co-invented over 350 products. His expertise spans AI, geopolitical trends, and crisis resilience.

流氓浪潮

让您的业务具备前瞻性，在激进变革中生存并获利

乔纳森·布里尔

4.05(20 Reviews)

《流氓浪潮》概述

在《巨浪》（*Rogue Waves*）一书中，财富 500 强创新专家乔纳森·布里尔（Jonathan Brill）揭示了如何将突如其来的市场威胁转化为盈利机遇。这部实操性强的框架得到了亚当·格兰特（Adam Grant）的认可，旨在帮助企业应对剧烈变革。如果下一次颠覆不是你的没落，而是你最大的突破，那会怎样？

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第 1 章

When Rogue Waves Reshape Business Landscapes

The phenomenon is as terrifying as it is sudden: a hundred-foot wall of water appearing without warning, capable of sinking even the most formidable vessels. These rogue waves, once dismissed as sailors' myths, are now recognized scientific events that occur when smaller waves converge with devastating force. In the business world, we face our own rogue waves-when technological breakthroughs, social upheavals, economic shifts, and political conflicts collide to create massive, transformative change. While traditional business approaches focus on efficiency and risk reduction, assuming stable compound growth, today's volatile environment demands organizations built to thrive amid chaos. Jonathan Brill's "Rogue Waves" has become required reading in boardrooms and business schools alike, with CEOs from Microsoft to Unilever citing its frameworks for navigating uncertainty. The book's popularity surged during the pandemic when its predictions about systemic vulnerabilities proved prescient, and it continues to influence how forward-thinking organizations approach strategy in an increasingly turbulent world.

第 2 章

Why Traditional Business Strategy Keeps Failing

When rogue waves hit, conventional business wisdom crumbles. The two dominant strategic frameworks-Porter's Competitive Strategy and Blue Ocean Strategy-both falter in times of radical change. Porter's approach, focused on industry positioning and competition, failed to save his own consultancy, Monitor Group, which imploded during economic turbulence. Similarly, Blue Ocean exemplars like Cirque du Soleil went bankrupt during the pandemic while other entertainment companies flourished. Consider Carl Icahn, a Porter devotee who lost $200 million on Blockbuster by doubling down on brick-and-mortar stores while Netflix rode the broadband internet wave to become the decade's top-performing stock. His later attempt to acquire HP with Xerox collapsed when COVID-19 hit-Xerox's office copier business imploded while HP's diversified portfolio remained resilient. These failures stem from five flawed pillars of modern business training: scientific management, game theory, shareholder value, enterprise architecture, and agile practices. These approaches assume reality is what you expect, that the future resembles the past, that short-term value creates long-term value, that leaders can steer overly complex systems, and that adapting after change occurs is sufficient. The result? Companies built for yesterday's storms but vulnerable to tomorrow's. They encourage inward focus and incremental adjustments when sharp turns are needed. Meanwhile, dangerous waves are already building: the end of globalization and US hegemony, technology-based advantages that create only short-term differentiation, and political volatility that can suddenly disrupt trade and resource access-as seen when COVID-19 revealed critical equipment shortages across America. What's needed instead is resilience-maintaining redundancies that efficiency experts find unacceptable. Think of it like a kayak versus an unsinkable ship. Kayaks succeed in rough waters not through invulnerability but through maneuverability and quick recovery. Their design makes them easy to tip but also easy to right-the "roll" technique allows kayakers to quickly flip back upright after capsizing. Organizations need similar capabilities to recover and respond faster than competitors when inevitable waves hit.

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第 3 章

The Mathematics of Monster Waves: How Disruption Forms

Until the 1990s, giant rogue waves were considered sailor folklore despite hundreds of unexplained ship sinkings yearly. The scientific breakthrough came in 1995 when the Draupner E oil platform recorded an 85-foot wave in the North Sea. Research now shows rogue waves occur approximately every 10 hours during storms. These monsters form through constructive interference-when multiple wave peaks overlap, creating a composite wave much larger than its components. In stormy seas with changing wind directions, waves from multiple sources can intersect. While we can't predict specific rogue waves more than minutes in advance, we can map the probability of their occurrence based on conditions. Business "rogue waves" form similarly from converging undercurrents. The 2008 financial crisis wasn't a black swan but resulted from building risk pressures, unproven financial instruments, and the historical pattern of debt crises occurring every 7-12 years. Likewise, the COVID-19 pandemic emerged predictably from increasing global travel, expanding cities pushing into natural biomes, rising urban density, and aging populations. The rogue wave analogy perfectly captures modern organizational challenges because accelerating change increases the frequency of unexpected trend intersections. While companies can handle everyday six-foot wave challenges with standard practices, they're devastated when industry-changing disruptions hit-like when Craigslist and Google crushed the 90-year-old Yellow Pages publisher in just a couple of years. These company-killing events typically result from predictable trends converging unpredictably. For example, the narrowing innovation monetization window is changing value creation approaches while governments simultaneously restrict global competitors' access to technology and markets. At these intersections, rogue waves form-forcing Google to abandon China reentry plans while Huawei faces US government restrictions. When these waves hit organizations, investigations typically reveal that warnings were ignored and communication breakdowns were systemic. The failure usually isn't an individual but a process-people perform tasks the system incentivizes. Organizations are capsized by predictable catastrophes through common failures: fighting the last war (assuming the future resembles the past), packing for the wrong trip (preparing for an unlikely future), surrendering to reality (failing to change probability through innovation), using binoculars instead of radar (looking at parts instead of the whole), and the elephant problem (drawing wrong conclusions from partial data).

第 4 章

Ten Undercurrents Reshaping Our World

Like the powerful Agulhas Current off South Africa's coast, where Atlantic and Indian Ocean waters meet icy southern flows to create turbulent conditions, business undercurrents operate beneath visible surface conditions. These underwater forces generate massive "Cape Rollers"-100-foot rogue waves appearing suddenly even on sunny days. As our world becomes increasingly interconnected, social, economic and technological undercurrents grow stronger, making once-in-a-lifetime events occur once a decade, and once-in-a-decade events happen constantly. Five economic undercurrents are transforming business fundamentals. First, changing demographics-aging populations in major economies mean lower interest rates, slower growth, increased government debt, and widening generational wealth gaps. Second, the data economy is shifting value from physical goods to information, with digital marketplaces aggregating consumers but often extracting more value than they create. Third, automation is enhancing human workers rather than replacing them entirely, with the most effective approach being "centaur" models combining human flexibility with machine precision. Fourth, Asia's rise is creating 2.1 billion new middle-class consumers by 2035, driving resource competition and geopolitical tensions. Finally, cheap money results from slowing structural growth and increasing debt, creating a feedback loop where interest rates must remain low to manage growing obligations. Technological undercurrents are equally powerful. Four technologies deserve special attention: connected devices (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), distributed ledgers (blockchain), and next-generation wireless networks (5G and satellite). Together they form the foundation that will drive growth across all industries. Meanwhile, the innovation window-the time between when a new idea becomes viable and when it gets disrupted by competitors-is rapidly shrinking from years to weeks. Today's innovation comes primarily from remixing and converging existing technologies rather than standalone breakthroughs, transforming fields through bioconvergence, biomimetic design, next-generation manufacturing, and human-computer integration. Social undercurrents complete the picture. Digital trust issues are emerging as tracking technologies capture increasingly intimate data, raising ethical and legal challenges amid inconsistent global privacy regulations. Meanwhile, new social contracts are forming as growing debt, productivity challenges, and inequality force companies and governments to rethink their relationships with individuals-evident in movements from the US Capitol assault to Brexit to Black Lives Matter, all representing populations left behind by globalization.

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第 5 章

The ROGUE Method: Navigating Uncertainty with Purpose

Organizational success during crisis depends more on installed processes than individual performance. While today's companies are built to satisfy investors' profit demands, post-COVID conversations have shifted dramatically toward resilience and adaptability. Leaders now face the dual challenge of driving quarterly performance while improving resilience-especially as stimulus money disappears, revealing structural slow growth and intensifying global competition. This new reality demands a systematic approach to uncertainty that goes beyond traditional strategic planning. The ROGUE Method provides practical tools to see subtle fissures in reality and shape them to your purpose through five interconnected components: Reality Test, Observe Your System, Generate Your Futures, Uncouple Your Opportunities from Your Threats, and Experiment. Different professionals naturally gravitate toward different aspects based on their backgrounds-lawyers connect with reality testing's analytical rigor, programmers understand systems observation's interconnected logic, while English majors might have breakthroughs with experimentation's creative approach. However, using only some tools limits effectiveness; the method offers a balanced set of mental models that strengthens organizational thinking across disciplines and hierarchies. The Reality Test component teaches abductive reasoning-the Sherlock Holmes method that begins with incomplete observations and proceeds to the likeliest explanation. This approach underlies many technological breakthroughs from Google's search algorithms to AI-powered image recognition, and has been crucial in developments like Tesla's self-driving capabilities and Netflix's content recommendation system. The REAL framework (Reconnaissance Method, Evidence Collection, Alternative Analysis, and Likely Realities) deliberately separates evidence collection from analysis, helping teams avoid common cognitive biases like availability bias (overvaluing readily available information), representativeness bias (mistaking similarity for category membership), and confirmation bias (twisting facts to match existing beliefs). For example, when Kodak evaluated digital photography in the 1970s, confirmation bias led them to dismiss its potential impact on their core business. When Observing Your System, leaders learn to identify patterns even amid uncertainty by developing system awareness. Systems modeling links causes and effects, from simple relationships to complex interactions with multiple variables and feedback loops. Even imperfect models provide significant advantage over no model at all, which is why companies like Amazon employ numerous economists focused on modeling possible futures and market dynamics. Causal loop diagrams are particularly valuable tools that yield insights with minimal information and certainty, revealing balancing loops that stabilize systems (like pricing mechanisms) and reinforcing loops that amplify changes (like network effects in social media platforms). Companies like Toyota have mastered systems thinking to create robust supply chains that can quickly adapt to disruptions, while organizations like SpaceX use complex system models to optimize rocket design and launch operations.

第 6 章

Generating Futures Through Strategic Simulation

Military leaders have long used simulation programs to prepare for radical uncertainty. Just as the Navy's fire school prepares sailors by repeatedly practicing emergency scenarios, commercial aviation transformed safety through simulation. These "sweat boxes" allow users to explore how different actions impact various what-if scenarios, helping identify more possible futures and preparing organizations for unexpected challenges. Rather than extrapolating from the present, research shows starting with a future situation and working backward improves decision-making by 30%. This approach forces precise goal definition and creates what Brill calls the "Tree of Possibility"-a framework mapping multiple scenarios from optimal success to disaster. This scalable tool allows different stakeholders to build on scenarios, generating powerful discussions and better contingency plans. Most organizational goals aren't ambitious enough. Silicon Valley's celebrated "10x improvements" often fall short, especially for new products that take 5-7 years to scale. True breakthroughs require thinking in terms of 100x outcomes. Hugh Herr's prosthetics work exemplifies this-progressing from giving amputees basic mobility to enabling his friend Jim Ewing to rock climb on sheer cliff faces with force-feedback sensation in his prosthetic foot. Similar 100x transformations include how eBay revolutionized inventory turnover compared to traditional retail, and SpaceX's mission to reduce payload costs from $85,216 per kilogram in 1981 to a projected $22 by 2025. To identify potential failures, we must consider what "miracles" need to happen for success and systematically evaluate each one. This approach works equally well for negative outcomes. System breakdowns typically occur because we didn't anticipate threats or implement proper safeguards. Most failures occur at the links between nodes in systems, as these connections typically lack proper protection since no one is specifically incentivized to maintain them. When preparing for unexpected threats, adopting an adversarial viewpoint helps identify which categories of threats and opportunities deserve attention. The 2002 Millennium battle exercise (MC02) demonstrates how even the most powerful systems can be vulnerable to unexpected attacks. When retired Marine Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper led the opposition force against a US carrier strike group in this $250 million war simulation, he devastated the American fleet in minutes using speedboats and outdated cruise missiles. His approach followed textbook network attack strategies-the 5Ds: Deceive, Disrupt, Degrade, Deny, Destroy.

边听边看，每个词都清晰呈现

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第 7 章

Uncoupling Opportunities from Threats

Like Amerigo Vespucci, who approached his voyage not as one all-or-nothing journey but as a series of connected smaller journeys with flexibility built in, successful organizations target a range of outcomes rather than a single predetermined result when facing uncertainty. By constantly testing assumptions and determining next steps based on current experiences, you may not reach your exact intended destination but will likely arrive somewhere worthwhile. Trigger points are interactions where small efforts can release large amounts of pent-up energy-like dominos in a Rube Goldberg machine. These aren't primarily transfers of energy but releases of potential energy, as exemplified by the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand which unleashed forces that had built up over decades. The VEGAS framework (Visibility, Effect, Gestation, Accessibility, Security) helps identify controls that prevent systems from going haywire. Small efforts applied at the right trigger points can transform entire systems. Maxwell's Daemon thought experiment illustrates this principle: a tiny entity selectively opening a door between two gas-filled boxes can separate fast and slow molecules, creating temperature differences with minimal effort. The five most effective system nudges are: Air Gaps (isolating risky elements), Decentralization (distributing decision-making), Bandwidth (changing information flow), Latency (adjusting response timing), and Scalability (ensuring capacity can flex as needed). After identifying trigger points and understanding where your system needs resilience, you must prioritize which opportunities and threats to address first. Several strategies can help bend the future to your benefit: "slice your risk onion" by examining all challenges you'll face rather than just immediate ones; "start with Plan B" by developing backup plans first; understand risk levels across interconnected systems; expand your awareness of uncertainty; and exploit information advantages through strategic nudges. The Titanic disaster exemplifies the consequences of misunderstanding risk levels. Despite innovative design with 16 watertight compartments, the ship's fatal flaw was that bulkheads didn't reach the ceilings. Their fundamental mistake was believing they understood all possible failure modes, which led them to omit crucial redundancies like high-volume pumps.

第 8 章

Experimentation: Building Resilience Through Strategic Testing

The "E" in the ROGUE method stands for Experiment-building a portfolio of experiments that maximize success benefits while minimizing failure impacts. The Bay Model in Sausalito, a massive 128,000-square-foot hydraulic model of the San Francisco Bay Area built in the 1950s, exemplifies this principle brilliantly. This engineering marvel not only allowed testing of hundreds of infrastructure projects over 50+ years but also revolutionized urban planning by creating a safe space for failure. Engineers could simulate everything from tidal patterns to pollution dispersal, testing multiple scenarios simultaneously without risking actual environmental damage. The model's success demonstrated how controlled experimentation could reduce uncertainty and save millions in potential construction mistakes. Research consistently shows that organizations committed to experimentation outperform their more cautious counterparts. A comprehensive 23-year study revealed that R&D investments had twice the impact on market capitalization compared to similar investments in tangible assets. However, the relationship between R&D budgets and growth isn't linear or straightforward. Success depends on three critical factors: timing (when to launch experiments), sequencing (how to order multiple initiatives), and hedging (how to protect against downside risks while maintaining upside potential). Modern business environments often demand parallel experimentation despite higher initial costs. The Covid-19 vaccine development through Operation Warp Speed serves as a masterclass in parallel experimentation. By simultaneously funding multiple vaccine candidates, covering development costs regardless of success, and building production infrastructure before clinical trials were complete, the initiative compressed typical vaccine development time from a decade to just one year. This approach, while expensive, proved invaluable given the pandemic's urgency. Similarly, Elon Musk's portfolio strategy across SpaceX, Tesla, and SolarCity demonstrates how parallel development in related fields can create synergistic benefits while maintaining independent innovation paths. Each company developed core technologies separately but shared insights and resources when beneficial. Creating an effective experiment portfolio requires sophisticated balancing acts across multiple dimensions. Leaders must weigh new knowledge acquisition against costs, balance success probability against experimental risk, and evaluate potential impact against project risk. Common pitfalls include three critical miscalculations: avoiding unmeasurable risks when additional learning could provide crucial insights, investing in contradictory knowledge that won't meaningfully impact decision-making, and failing to invest in knowledge that could narrow the solution space efficiently. The contrasting examples of Terry Gilliam's Don Quixote project and Pixar's Toy Story development illuminate the importance of resilient design in experimentation. Gilliam's 19-year struggle to complete his film, plagued by setbacks from weather to funding issues, shows how projects overly dependent on a single vision or approach can become brittle and vulnerable to failure. In contrast, Pixar's modular approach to Toy Story allowed for continuous iteration and improvement, with separate teams working on story, animation, and technology in parallel, enabling rapid adaptation to challenges. To design for resilience, organizations should implement three key strategies: First, time experiments so that potential upsides and downsides are asynchronous, with built-in limiters to protect against catastrophic failure. Second, establish clear, quantifiable metrics for both initiating and terminating experiments to prevent the persistence of "zombie" projects that consume resources without producing value. Finally, create modular development pipelines that allow for rapid retooling and adaptation as new information emerges from experimental results.

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第 9 章

Leading in Stormy Seas: Building a Culture of Resilience

Astro Teller, head of X (Alphabet's advanced research lab), faces the unprecedented challenge of doubling a trillion-dollar enterprise's valuation. His approach mirrors successful organizations that accomplish the impossible: building portfolios of experiments rather than businesses. This requires incentivizing failure by rewarding smart risk and good experiments that increase learning, not just successful ones. Shackleton's 1916 Antarctic rescue mission aboard the James Caird illustrates how teams can thrive in chaos. When their ship Endurance was crushed by ice, Shackleton led a desperate 800-mile voyage across the treacherous Southern Ocean. Their success came through constant experimentation and a meritocratic power structure where the person with the most knowledge about any situation made decisions. Shackleton enabled rather than controlled, sometimes subordinating himself to assist others like navigator Worsley. In our increasingly volatile world, success is probabilistic rather than deterministic. Traditional command-and-control management fails in VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) environments. Effective leaders must shift between captaining and coaching. While captains hoard information and assign tasks without context, coaches inform, align, and motivate team members while supporting their judgment. The octopus offers an ideal model for organizational structure with its distributed neural system-each tentacle has its own "brain" connected through a neural ring, allowing independent yet coordinated action. Like octopuses, effective teams share environmental information continuously while maintaining individual autonomy. Octopuses can also modify 60% of their RNA (versus mammals' 1%), enabling remarkable adaptability without changing their DNA-similarly, companies can become more innovative by changing incentives rather than their fundamental nature. When shifting from executing predefined strategies to evolving them dynamically, organizations must move from football-style structure to basketball-style agility. Football is highly structured with specialized players executing predefined tasks, while basketball requires constant role-shifting and adaptability. Great business teams need unrecognized contributors who ask insightful questions, break down silos, and coordinate information flow across the organization. Effective leaders like Steph Curry and Tom Matano align their teams through the LEAD framework: Logic-being brutally honest about facts and options while remaining dispassionate; Empathy-demonstrating understanding of team members' values and concerns; Authority-establishing credibility through sound reasoning and aligned values rather than position power; and Deadline-creating momentum through clear timelines and accountability. In times of change and confusion, these four elements help remove division and foster the team cohesion necessary for adaptability and innovation.

第 10 章

Transforming Organizations for an Age of Uncertainty

Transforming an organization to prepare for and leverage radical change happens in four phases. In Phase I (Awareness), teams create PowerPoint decks to signal commitment, though these often contain old insights presented as new experiments. While skepticism is common, this phase opens communication about shared context and denial. Leaders should celebrate both successes and failures, discuss thought processes openly, and establish urgency. Phase II (Behavior Change) occurs when teams start requesting budgets for experiments rather than secretly diverting funds. This requires executive sponsors to protect initiatives, modest but consistent resources, persistence through failures, and systems allowing small teams to remain agile while interfacing with the larger organization. Phase III (Culture Change) involves routinely evaluating and cutting internal projects based on predefined metrics, developing systems for scaling successful experiments, and rotating experimentally-minded employees through the central organization. The final Phase IV (Resilient Growth) features broad C-suite support, reliable resourcing, and organization-wide participation, resulting in measurable improvements in both performance and resilience directly attributable to internal innovations. In an era of increasing uncertainty, traditional strategy and management tools make companies brittle to radical change. The key to survival isn't predicting every possible change but preparing for categories of radical change and using small nudges to transform systemic threats into opportunities. The most important advice is to understand the game you're playing before choosing a strategy: uncouple threats from opportunities when you can win, avoid games you can't win, game the system when you can't avoid playing, and capitalize when you can respond to situations competitors can't. With undercurrents converging more rapidly and powerfully than before, changes that once seemed irrelevant-distant, slow, or small-can now have earthshaking consequences. Rather than trying to armor organizations against every threat, resilient leaders focus on recovering quickly and compartmentalizing damage. The captains of modern business see a more complete reality by looking outward and inward, listening broadly, seeking historical corollaries, and making decisions based on probabilities rather than certainties. The winners in the rogue wave era have the right tools and impact amplifiers in place, have modeled the Four FOES of Growth, and have built systems that maximize upside while balancing resilience and growth.

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《流氓浪潮》核心主题

constructive interference
systemic vulnerability
strategic resilience
trend convergence
navigating uncertainty

《流氓浪潮》经典语录

When rogue waves hit, conventional business wisdom crumbles.
Companies built for yesterday's storms [are] vulnerable to tomorrow's.
What's needed instead is resilience.
Organizations need similar capabilities to recover and respond faster than competitors when inevitable waves hit.
The failure usually isn't an individual but a process.

《流氓浪潮》主要人物

Jonathan BrillAuthor and strategist specializing in uncertainty
Michael PorterStrategist whose competitive frameworks are cited
Carl IcahnInvestor used as a case study in strategic failure

关于作者

Jonathan Brill 是《福布斯》排名第一的未来学家和畅销书作家，也是《疯狗浪》（Rogue Waves）一书的作者。正如《哈佛商业评论》所认可的那样，他是一位享誉全球的未来学家和转型架构师。

《疯狗浪》探讨了技术、地缘政治转变和经济趋势的关键交汇点，为读者提供了在不断变化的世界中应对未来不确定性并建立韧性的策略。Jonathan 利用其丰富的经验，帮助个人和组织预测并适应颠覆性力量。Verizon 和三星等领先公司都曾寻求他的专业知识，指导他们制定面向未来的增长战略。

Brill 是《疯狗浪》一书的作者，该书受到了《经济学人》和 Adam Grant 的赞誉。作为 TED 和摩根大通会议等盛会的常驻演讲嘉宾，他经常分享关于未来趋势和创新的见解。他还是《哈佛商业评论》的定期撰稿人。他的思想领导力还延伸到了 ABC 和 CNBC 等主流媒体，他在这些媒体上就新兴趋势提供专家评论。此外，他还担任多家公司的顾问，帮助他们应对复杂挑战并抓住新机遇。

Jonathan 的职业背景包括在惠普（HP）和 Frost & Sullivan 担任重要职位，专注于推动创新和增长。在他的职业生涯中，他发明了 350 多种产品，为客户创造了 270 亿美元的收入。这些多元化的经验塑造了他对未来趋势的独特视角，以及将这些趋势转化为可操作策略的能力。

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由哥伦比亚大学校友在旧金山创建

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"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."

@Moemenn

"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."

@Chloe, Solo founder, LA

117

"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."

@Raaaaaachelw

"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."

@Matt, YC alum

108

"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."

@Erin, Investment Banking Associate , NYC

254

"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."

@djmikemoore

"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."

@Pitiful

4.5K

"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."

@SofiaP

"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"

@Jaded_Falcon

201

"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."

@OojasSalunke

"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."

@Leo, Law Student, UPenn

483

"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"

@Cashflowbubu

"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."

@Moemenn

"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."

@Chloe, Solo founder, LA

117

"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."

@Raaaaaachelw

"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."

@Matt, YC alum

108

"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."

@Erin, Investment Banking Associate , NYC

254

"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."

@djmikemoore

"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."

@Pitiful

4.5K

"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."

@SofiaP

"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"

@Jaded_Falcon

201

"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."

@OojasSalunke

"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."

@Leo, Law Student, UPenn

483

"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"

@Cashflowbubu

"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."

@Moemenn

"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."

@Chloe, Solo founder, LA

117

"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."

@Raaaaaachelw

"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."

@Matt, YC alum

108

"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."

@Erin, Investment Banking Associate , NYC

254

"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."

@djmikemoore

"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."

@Pitiful

4.5K

"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."

@SofiaP

"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"

@Jaded_Falcon

201

"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."

@OojasSalunke

"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."

@Leo, Law Student, UPenn

483

"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"

@Cashflowbubu

查看更多网络上关于 BeFreed 的讨论

开启你的学习之旅，就是现在

第 8 章

流氓浪潮

概述《流氓浪潮》概述

一本书，多种聆听方式。

When Rogue Waves Reshape Business Landscapes

Why Traditional Business Strategy Keeps Failing

边听边看，每个词都清晰呈现

The Mathematics of Monster Waves: How Disruption Forms

Ten Undercurrents Reshaping Our World

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The ROGUE Method: Navigating Uncertainty with Purpose

Generating Futures Through Strategic Simulation

边听边看，每个词都清晰呈现

Uncoupling Opportunities from Threats

Experimentation: Building Resilience Through Strategic Testing

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Leading in Stormy Seas: Building a Culture of Resilience

Transforming Organizations for an Age of Uncertainty

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《流氓浪潮》核心主题

《流氓浪潮》经典语录

《流氓浪潮》主要人物

关于作者

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关于本书的常见问题

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Is Rogue Waves worth reading?

What are the ABCs of Resilient Growth in Rogue Waves?

发现更多

1,000,000+ curious minds.

1,000,000+ curious minds.

一本书，多种聆听方式。

When Rogue Waves Reshape Business Landscapes

Why Traditional Business Strategy Keeps Failing

边听边看，每个词都清晰呈现

The Mathematics of Monster Waves: How Disruption Forms

Ten Undercurrents Reshaping Our World

从 《流氓浪潮》中收获更多

The ROGUE Method: Navigating Uncertainty with Purpose

Generating Futures Through Strategic Simulation

边听边看，每个词都清晰呈现

Uncoupling Opportunities from Threats

Experimentation: Building Resilience Through Strategic Testing

从 《流氓浪潮》中收获更多

Leading in Stormy Seas: Building a Culture of Resilience

Transforming Organizations for an Age of Uncertainty

你已读完 《流氓浪潮》

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《流氓浪潮》概述

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从《流氓浪潮》中收获更多

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