Why the world is safer than you think

Eli: You know, Miles, I was looking at the news this morning—the usual headlines about the Middle East and those scary reports from Michigan—and it felt like the world was just one giant sinking ship. But then I saw this incredible statistic: even with everything going on, the global murder rate has actually dropped from one in 15,000 people in 2000 to one in 22,000 today.

Miles: It’s wild, right? We’re so conditioned to expect the worst-case scenario that we miss the "math of hope" happening right under our noses. It’s like we’re looking at a dark forest and missing the fact that the trees are actually getting healthier. In the U.S. alone, the murder rate is less than half of what it was in 1991.

Eli: Exactly! It makes me wonder what else we’re missing. If society isn’t a sinking ship, what does the "best-case" horizon actually look like?

Miles: That’s the perfect lens for today. We’re moving from the depletion curve of the past toward a future of radical abundance, especially with things like the solar supercycle. Let’s explore how these positive omens are quietly reshaping our world.

Eli: So, Miles, we’ve got this "math of hope" starting to add up, but let’s get specific. I was reading some of the latest work from the McKinsey Global Institute—they just released this book called A Century of Plenty—and they put out this absolutely wild vision. They’re basically asking: what if by the year 2100, the poorest person on Earth lived as well as the average person in Switzerland does today?

Miles: That is a massive goal. Switzerland—I mean, we’re talking about a GDP per capita of around $82,000. That’s not just "getting by." That’s high-quality healthcare, top-tier education, safety, and real options for how you spend your life. It sounds almost like science fiction when you think about where some countries are starting from today.

Eli: Right? It feels like a dream. But the researchers actually ran the numbers to see if it’s physically possible—like, does the Earth even have enough "stuff" to support 12 billion people living like that? And their answer was a resounding yes. They call it a "feasibility stress test." To get there, the global economy would need to be about eight and a half times larger than it is right now.

Miles: Eight and a half times. That sounds like a mountain, but when you break it down into annual growth, it’s actually more grounded than you’d think. We’re talking about 2.6% global per capita growth per year through 2100. For context, the world has averaged about 2.3% over the last twenty-five years. So, we’re not asking for a miracle—just a slightly faster version of the progress we’ve already been making.

Eli: It’s like we’re already on the path, we just need to find a slightly higher gear. And it’s not just about the money, is it? It’s about what that money represents—dignity. I love how the World Happiness Foundation frames this. They talk about "Happytalism." It’s this idea that the ultimate goal of an economy isn’t just stacking up cash—it’s the freedom and flourishing of every human being.

Miles: Exactly. It’s moving from a "scarcity mindset" where we’re all fighting over a shrinking pie, to an "abundance mindset" where we realize the pie can grow. And it’s already happening. Think about the fact that back in 1820, about 95% of the world lived in extreme poverty. By 1990, that was down to 35%. And today? It’s less than 10%. We are literally living through the greatest escape from poverty in human history.

Eli: That’s a huge perspective shift. But I can hear the skeptics already—they’re saying, "Sure, we have more stuff, but are we actually happier? Is the world actually getting better or just busier?"

Miles: That’s where the "Happytalist" view is so important. It’s not just about industrial output—it’s about the fact that global literacy is at nearly 90% now. A century ago, it was only one-third. It’s about Cabo Verde being certified malaria-free just over two years ago. It’s about the fact that we’ve doubled the average human lifespan in the last century. When you have health, education, and the ability to read and write, you have the "nuts and bolts" of a meaningful life.

Eli: It’s like we’ve been building the foundation of this "House of Plenty" for a hundred years, and now we’re finally ready to put on the roof. I mean, even the "middle class" is a totally different story now. I saw a report from the Brookings Institution saying that for the first time in history, more than half of humanity is middle-class or wealthier. That happened back in 2018!

Miles: It’s a literal tipping point. We’ve spent most of human history with a tiny elite at the top and everyone else struggling to survive. Now, the "bulge" is in the middle. And that’s what makes the Switzerland goal feel attainable. If we can get half the world there, why not everyone?

Eli: It’s a bold vision, Miles. It’s about making "plenty" the floor, not the ceiling. Imagine a world where the word "poverty" is something kids only learn about in history books—like the plague or the steam engine.

Miles: That’s the goal. And to get there, we have to look at the literal fuel for that engine—energy. Because you can’t have Swiss-level prosperity without a massive, clean power system to back it up.

Eli: Okay, so if we’re building this "World of Plenty," we’re going to need a lot of power. I mean, my phone dies twice a day just from me scrolling through news—imagine 12 billion people living high-tech, high-energy lives. How do we do that without, you know, melting the planet?

Miles: That is the trillion-dollar question. The McKinsey research suggests we’d need two to three times more total energy than we use today, and—get this—about thirty times more clean electricity by 2100. It’s not just an "energy transition"—it’s a total energy explosion.

Eli: Thirty times? That sounds impossible! Where is all that coming from? Are we just going to cover the entire Sahara in solar panels?

Miles: Well, that’s one part of it, but it’s actually more diverse. Think of it as a "portfolio of power." We’re looking at a world where nuclear fusion at scale finally joins the party, alongside massive amounts of renewables supported by advanced storage and smart grids. And here’s the thing—we know we can build at this scale because we’ve seen it happen. China, for instance, has expanded its electricity generation 25-fold over the last forty years. That’s way faster than the pace we need globally to hit the 2100 goal.

Eli: Wow, so the blueprint for that kind of growth already exists. It’s just about deployment. And it’s not just the big stuff, right? I was reading about these "micro-innovations" in Africa. There was a Clean Cooking Summit in 2024 that mobilized over $2 billion to get clean stoves to millions of people.

Miles: That’s a huge deal for dignity. Think about the time and health saved when a family doesn’t have to burn wood or charcoal inside their home. That’s abundance in action—modern energy not as a luxury, but as a basic right. And while we’re building these micro-solutions, the "macro" tech is leaping forward. We achieved net-positive nuclear fusion for the first time in December 2022. It’s like we finally figured out how to put a "Sun in a lab."

Eli: I remember that! It was such a "Star Trek" moment. Even if commercial fusion is still a few decades off, it proves that the limit on energy isn’t physical. It’s just engineering. And in the meantime, solar is just... crushing it. I saw that in 2023, 86% of all new electricity capacity worldwide came from renewables.

Miles: Solar is the "supercycle" you mentioned earlier. It’s becoming so cheap and ubiquitous that it’s changing the math of what’s possible. And it’s not just the panels—it’s the batteries. We doubled the energy density of lithium-ion batteries between 2010 and 2023. That’s why we’re seeing the electric vehicle revolution take off. One in five cars sold globally in 2023 was electric. By 2025, that’s expected to be 18 million cars a year.

Eli: It’s like a silent takeover. You walk down the street in some cities now and it’s just... quiet. No tailpipe fumes, no engine roar. Just silent, clean mobility. But Miles, what about the materials? All these batteries and turbines need lithium, copper, steel. Are we going to run out of "Earth" to build this stuff?

Miles: That’s a common fear, but the data says otherwise. Take lithium—central to the whole battery story. Recoverable reserves have more than doubled since 2010. That’s triple the pace we actually need for a world of plenty. It turns out that when the need for a mineral goes up, our ingenuity for finding it—and recycling it—goes up even faster.

Eli: It’s the "incentive of innovation." If we need it, we find a way to get it or a way to replace it. I love that. It’s like we’re finally moving past the "industrial amnesia" where we take our infrastructure for granted. We’re becoming a world of "builders" again.

Miles: We have to be. To reach that Swiss standard, we need to build bridges, data centers, and power stations at a pace we haven’t seen in decades in the West. But we know how to do it. We’ve got AI helping us find new mineral deposits, robots building modular housing, and drones delivering medical supplies to remote villages in Rwanda. The "steel arteries" of the future are already being laid down.

Eli: It’s a literal physical transformation of the planet. And while we’re building all this high-tech stuff, we’re also figuring out how to fix the most basic thing of all—how we feed 12 billion people without destroying the last of our forests.

Miles: Exactly. Because a "World of Plenty" doesn’t mean much if the cupboards are bare. And the "math of food" is just as surprising as the "math of energy."

Eli: You know, for centuries, people have been terrified that we’re going to outgrow our food supply. It’s like this "Malthusian Ghost" that follows us around—the idea that more people always equals more famine. But when you look at the last sixty years, the opposite happened!

Miles: It’s one of the most successful "vibe-checks" in history. Between 1961 and 2020, the global population grew two and a half times, but we actually produced 3.7 times more food. We didn’t just keep up—we pulled ahead. And we did it through yields—innovation in the dirt, basically.

Eli: Innovation in the dirt—I love that. And the McKinsey book says we can feed 12 billion people "plentiful, protein-rich diets" without cutting down another single tree. All we need is an annual yield increase of 0.2% to 1.3%. That’s actually a smaller increase than what we’ve been achieving since the 1960s!

Miles: It’s totally doable. We’re moving into this "intelligent abundance" in agriculture. Think about AI-guided robots and drones doing "precision farming"—giving every individual plant exactly the amount of water and fertilizer it needs, and nothing more. It’s like moving from a "sledgehammer" approach to a "scalpel."

Eli: And it’s not just about traditional farming, right? I saw that lab-grown salmon just got FDA approval, and there are companies in the UK launching lab-grown meat for pets. It’s like we’re decoupling food from the "environmental footprint" of livestock.

Miles: It’s a total reimagining of the "farm." We’ve got vertical farms in cities that use 90% less water. We’ve got CRISPR-edited wheat that makes its own fertilizer. In Nigeria, they’re embracing GMOs to boost food security. It’s this massive toolkit of biotechnology and engineering that’s finally putting that "famine ghost" to rest.

Eli: And it’s working! I saw a stat that the share of children suffering from stunted growth due to malnutrition fell from one-in-three in 2000 to one-in-five by 2019. That’s millions of kids who now have the brain power and physical health to actually participate in this "Century of Plenty."

Miles: That’s the real "human capital" story. When you nourish a child, you’re investing in the next great scientist or engineer. And it’s not just about "subsistence" anymore—it’s about "options." We’re seeing record harvests for rice and grain, which is driving prices down to eight-year lows in some places. That means a family in a developing country has more money left over for education or starting a small business.

Eli: It’s a virtuous cycle. Better food leads to better health, which leads to better education, which leads to... well, more innovation. And speaking of health, have you seen the "medical miracles" that are becoming standard? It feels like we’re living in a golden age of biology.

Miles: It’s the "mRNA moment." We used that tech to tackle a pandemic, but now we’re aiming it at cancer, malaria, and rare genetic diseases. We’ve got the first-ever malaria vaccines reaching children in twelve African countries right now. That’s a disease that has killed more humans than almost any other in history, and we’re finally closing in on it.

Eli: It’s incredible. And gene therapy—I saw the FDA approved a one-shot cure for hemophilia B and a treatment for sickle-cell anemia that functionally cured over 90% of the people in the trial. Imagine being told your whole life you have an incurable condition, and then... one shot, and it’s gone.

Miles: It’s the closest thing to real magic we have. And it’s not just the high-tech stuff. It’s the "Cabo Verde effect"—just solid public health work eliminating malaria entirely in certain regions. It’s the fact that polio is 99.9% gone. We are on the verge of making it the second human disease ever to be wiped off the face of the Earth.

Eli: It’s like we’re "debugging" the human body. And with AI helping to design new molecules and analyze the human genome, the pace of these breakthroughs is only going to accelerate. We’re moving from "treating symptoms" to "editing the root cause."

Miles: That’s the shift from "scarcity" in health to "plenty." Longer lives, but more importantly, healthier lives—more "healthspan." If we can extend the time people spend feeling vital and energetic, imagine what that does for the "World of Plenty" in 2100.

Eli: It’s a world full of healthy, well-fed people with nearly limitless clean energy. But there’s one more piece to this puzzle—the planet itself. How do we make sure this "abundance" doesn’t come at the cost of a dead ocean or a silent forest?

Miles: That’s where the "Regenerative Turning Point" comes in. Because it turns out, the same tech that gives us plenty is also the tech that’s going to help us heal the Earth.

Eli: So, Miles, let’s talk about the "Blue and Green" side of this. We’ve talked about energy and food, but can we really have a "World of Plenty" that isn’t just a giant concrete parking lot? I mean, I love my gadgets, but I also want to see a sea turtle every now and then.

Miles: You’re not alone! And that’s one of the most inspiring parts of the data. We’re seeing this "rewilding renaissance" happening all over the place. In Europe, species like the bison, the beaver, and the gray wolf are making these massive comebacks. We’re talking about animals that were virtually extinct in the 20th century now roaming free across the continent.

Eli: I saw that! Britain just had its first wild bison calf born in 6,000 years a couple of years back. It’s like we’re inviting the wild back into our backyard. And the oceans—I mean, I was reading that fully "no-take" marine reserves have about 670% more fish biomass than unprotected areas. It’s like nature has this incredible "spring-back" factor if we just give it a little breathing room.

Miles: It’s the "Cabo Pulmo" effect. There’s this spot in Mexico that was totally overfished, a ghost town under the waves. They turned it into a reserve, and twenty years later, the fish biomass had increased by over 400%. Now it’s an "Ocean Eden" teeming with sharks and groupers. It turns out that protecting nature isn’t a "sacrifice"—it’s an investment in abundance. More fish in the reserve means more fish "spilling over" into the areas where people actually fish.

Eli: It’s a win-win. And the same thing is happening with forests. China alone increased its forest area by 70 million hectares over thirty years. That’s like a whole new lung for the planet. And then you have the "Great Green Wall" in the Sahel, which has restored 18 million hectares of degraded land. It’s people literally "planting hope."

Miles: I love that phrase. And it’s backed by international law now. In 2022, the world agreed to the "30 by 30" goal—protecting 30% of the Earth’s land and oceans by 2030. It’s like a "Paris Agreement for Nature." And we finally got a High Seas Treaty in 2023 to protect the lawless "Wild West" of the open ocean.

Eli: It feels like we’re finally growing up as a species—taking responsibility for the "Blue Commons." But Miles, what about the plastic? That’s the one that always gets me. It feels like every time I go to the beach, I see a plastic straw or a bottle cap.

Miles: That’s a real challenge, but even there, the tide is turning. We have 175 countries working on a legally binding Global Plastics Treaty. And in the meantime, at least 77 countries have already banned or put fees on single-use plastics. Africa is actually leading the way there—34 nations on that continent have banned plastic bags entirely!

Eli: No way! Africa is the "front line" of the plastic ban? That’s awesome. And we’ve got projects like the Ocean Cleanup removing hundreds of thousands of kilograms of debris from the Great Pacific Garbage Patch. It’s like we’re finally starting to "clean our room" on a planetary scale.

Miles: And we’re getting smarter about the materials themselves. We’re seeing "Right to Repair" laws passing in the EU, forcing companies to make gadgets that last longer. We’re moving toward a "circular economy" where waste is just... a design flaw. If you can recycle the lithium in a battery or the steel in a skyscraper, you’re not "depleting" the Earth—you’re just "borrowing" its materials.

Eli: It’s a total shift from "use and discard" to "preserve and regenerate." And it’s even reaching the "iconic" species. Humpback whales in the South Atlantic have rebounded from just a few hundred to over 25,000. Tigers in Nepal have doubled their population since 2009. Mountain gorillas are up. Pandas are off the "Endangered" list.

Miles: It’s proof that no cause is truly "lost" if we actually try. And this "Regenerative" mindset is even changing how we build our cities. Singapore has over 50% green cover now—they’ve got vertical gardens and rooftop forests that actually cool the city and boost mental health.

Eli: I’ve seen pictures—it looks like something out of a futuristic movie where nature and tech just... get along. It’s like we’re building a "living infrastructure."

Miles: That’s the vision for 2100. A world where everyone lives like the Swiss, but the air is cleaner, the oceans are fuller, and the forests are deeper than they are today. It’s a high-energy, high-nature future.

Eli: It sounds like a world worth building. But Miles, how do we get there? I mean, for the person listening right now, it all feels so... big. What’s the "Practical Playbook" for staying optimistic and making this happen?

Miles: That’s the most important part. Because this future isn’t "inevitable"—it’s a choice. And it starts with how we think and act today.

Eli: Okay, Miles, let’s get down to earth. We’ve painted this beautiful picture of 2100—Swiss-level living, clean energy, rewilded oceans. But for someone listening to this right now, in 2026, it can feel like a lot of "high-level" talk. What can we actually do to help steer the ship in that direction?

Miles: The first thing—and this sounds simple but it’s actually radical—is to reclaim the narrative. We have to stop letting pessimism become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we believe the future is doomed, we stop investing, we stop innovating, and we stop having kids. Optimism is a competitive advantage. It’s what gives you the energy to be a "builder" instead of a "critic."

Eli: I love that. "Optimism as a strategy." It’s like that quote from Sven Smit in the McKinsey talk—the optimists have it not because they’re always right, but because they keep trying. And by trying, they actually get closer to the goal. So, rule number one: be a vocal optimist. Talk about what’s going right at the dinner table.

Miles: Exactly. Use those 1,084 "good news stories" as your ammo. Rule number two: Invest in "Industrial Literacy." We’ve become "fish in water" when it comes to technology. We use our phones and flip our light switches without having any clue how the "House of Plenty" actually works. Learn about where your energy comes from, how your food is grown, and how the "Blue Commons" are being protected. When we understand the systems, we can demand better ones.

Eli: It’s about moving from "consumer" to "steward." And that leads to rule number three: Support the "Builders." Whether it’s voting for policies that speed up permits for clean energy or choosing "B-Corps" and cooperatives that prioritize the planet alongside profit. We need to reward the people and companies that are actually laying the "steel arteries" of the future.

Miles: Right. Don’t just be "anti-pollution"—be "pro-solution." If a new wind farm or a dense housing project is being proposed in your neighborhood, don’t be the "NIMBY" (Not In My Backyard). Be the "YIMBY"—Yes In My Backyard! Because we can’t reach that Swiss standard without building more "stuff"—it just has to be the right stuff.

Eli: "YIMBY for the Future"—I like it. And what about on a personal level? I feel like "Happytalism" has a lot to say about how we live our day-to-day lives.

Miles: Absolutely. Rule number four: Cultivate "Digital Generosity." We live in an age of record-high charitable giving and volunteering. Digital platforms have made it easier than ever to reach out a hand. Whether it’s participating in a citizen science project like eBird or contributing to a mutual aid network, your time and empathy are the "social capital" that makes a World of Plenty worth living in.

Eli: It’s about "shared benefit." Recognizing that when my neighbor thrives, I thrive. And that’s really the heart of the whole thing, isn't it? It’s moving past "zero-sum" thinking—the idea that for me to win, you have to lose.

Miles: That’s the most important "unlearning" we have to do. In a world of innovation and growth, we can all move toward Switzerland. The limit isn't physical—it’s in our hearts and minds. If we can imagine it, we can build it.

Eli: So, to everyone listening: your homework is to find one of those "positive omens" we talked about today and share it with someone who’s feeling a bit down about the world. Be the "light leader" in your circle.

Miles: And remember that the "math of hope" is on your side. We’ve come so far in the last hundred years—from 60% extreme poverty to less than 10%. We’ve doubled our lives. We’ve touched the Moon. The next century is ours to shape.

Eli: It’s a hell of a time to be alive, Miles.

Miles: The best time yet, Eli. And it’s only getting better.

Eli: Well, Miles, I have to say, I feel a lot lighter than I did this morning. It’s funny how just shifting the focus from the "microscope of crisis" to the "telescope of progress" changes your whole vibe.

Miles: It’s a powerful perspective shift. We spent today looking at a vision where by 2100, the "Swiss floor" becomes a global reality. We looked at the math—that 2.6% growth that feels so doable when you realize we’ve been doing 2.3% for decades. We looked at the energy explosion, the agricultural revolution, and the rewilding of our planet.

Eli: It’s a lot to take in, but the common thread is always human ingenuity. Whether it’s a scientist in a lab achieving fusion or a farmer in Kenya using an AI-powered water pump, we are a species of problem-solvers. We’ve spent the last century building the "machine of progress," and even with all the sand in the gears lately, that machine is still running.

Miles: It’s more than just a machine, though. It’s a story. And as we wrap things up, I want to leave everyone with one thought: the most dangerous thing in the world isn't a lack of resources—it's a lack of hope. A story of decline breeds paralysis, but a story of possibility? That’s what mobilizes effort. That’s what gets people to roll up their sleeves and build the future.

Eli: You’ve hit the nail on the head. If there’s one takeaway from everything we’ve discussed, it’s that "plenty" is a choice. It’s something we create together through our votes, our investments, our innovations, and our simple acts of kindness.

Miles: So, as you go about your day, take a look around. Look at the silent electric bus gliding by, or the solar panels on a neighbor’s roof, or even just the fact that you have the entire library of human knowledge in your pocket. Those aren't just gadgets—they are the seeds of 2100.

Eli: They really are. And I hope this conversation has given you a bit of "narrative armor" the next time you see a doom-and-gloom headline. Remember that beneath the noise, there is a deep, quiet current of progress moving us all forward.

Miles: Thank you so much for joining us on this deep dive into the "Century of Plenty." It’s been a blast exploring these "reasons for optimism" with you.

Eli: Absolutely. And thank you to everyone listening for being part of the conversation. Take a moment today to reflect on one thing that’s gone right in your world lately. It’s the best way to start building the future.

Miles: Stay curious, stay hopeful, and keep building.

Eli: Cheers to the next century!