Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner Summary
Overview of Superforecasting
Discover why ordinary people outperformed intelligence agencies in Tetlock's groundbreaking forecasting research. Can prediction truly be learned? This NYT bestseller reveals the cognitive toolkit that helps superforecasters beat experts - even those with classified information at their disposal.
Similar books to Superforecasting
저자의 목소리로 책을 느껴보세요
지식을 흥미롭고 예시가 풍부한 인사이트로 전환
핵심 아이디어를 빠르게 캡처하여 신속하게 학습
재미있고 매력적인 방식으로 책을 즐기세요
핵심 내용
Why the Smartest People in the Room Are Usually Wrong
Here's something that should shake your confidence: in 2011, a retired government employee from Nebraska with no special credentials started outpredicting CIA analysts, celebrated pundits, and sophisticated prediction markets on questions like whether Russia would annex Ukrainian territory. Bill Flack wasn't lucky - he was part of a revolution in how we think about the future. When over 20,000 volunteers participated in a government-sponsored forecasting tournament, researchers discovered something remarkable: the ability to see the future isn't a mystical gift or the domain of credentialed experts. It's a learnable skill, built on specific thinking habits that anyone can develop. The catch? Most of us - especially the experts we trust most - are doing it completely wrong. In 1956, a renowned medical specialist diagnosed Archie Cochrane with terminal cancer. Cochrane, a physician himself, accepted this death sentence without question and began planning his final months. The specialist was completely wrong. What's terrifying isn't just the misdiagnosis - it's that neither man questioned it. They fell into what psychologists call the certainty trap, where our minds rush to judgment and then defend those judgments against all evidence. This trap has killed countless people throughout history. George Washington's physicians bled, purged, and blistered him to death in 1799, supremely confident in treatments that were actually hastening his demise. For centuries, doctors rarely questioned methods that ranged from useless to lethal. As one medical historian put it, they were "like blind men arguing over the colors of the rainbow."
How Our Minds Betray Us and Why Experts Fail
Breaking Down the Impossible and Merging Multiple Views
The Precision Paradox and the Art of Updating
The Growth Mindset and Learning from Failure
The Wisdom of Humble Collaboration
Your Move
빠른 요약 모드 - Superforecasting 요약을 10분 만에 읽거나 듣기
Superforecasting의 핵심 아이디어를 이해하기 쉬운 포인트로 분해하여 혁신적인 팀이 어떻게 창조하고, 협력하고, 성장하는지 이해합니다.
플래시 카드 모드 - Superforecasting에서 엄선한 10가지 핵심 인사이트
Superforecasting을 빠른 기억 단서로 압축하여 솔직함, 팀워크, 창의적 회복력의 핵심 원칙을 강조합니다.
재미있게 모드 - Superforecasting의 교훈을 24분 스토리로
생생한 스토리텔링을 통해 Superforecasting을 경험하고, 혁신 교훈을 기억에 남고 적용할 수 있는 순간으로 바꿉니다.
개인화 모드 - Superforecasting 요약을 0분 만에 읽거나 듣기
무엇이든 물어보고, 목소리를 선택하고, 진정으로 공감되는 인사이트를 함께 만들어보세요.
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"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."
"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."
"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."
"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"
"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."
"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."
"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"
샌프란시스코에서 컬럼비아 대학교 동문들이 만들었습니다
"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."
"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."
"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."
"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."
"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."
"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."
"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."
"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."
"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"
"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."
"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."
"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"
"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."
"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."
"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."
"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."
"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."
"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."
"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."
"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."
"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"
"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."
"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."
"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"
"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."
"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."
"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."
"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."
"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."
"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."
"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."
"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."
"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"
"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."
"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."
"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"
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