第1章
The Global Divide: How "Us vs. Them" Politics Threatens Our Future
Have you ever wondered why a Palestinian youth would risk his life throwing rocks at Israeli soldiers? It's not because he believes it will change anything. It's because, when all other avenues for being heard have failed, desperate acts become the only way to say "I exist." This phenomenon isn't limited to the Middle East-it's happening everywhere. From rust belt factory workers to European citizens fearing waves of immigration, people who feel abandoned by globalization are metaphorically "throwing rocks" at the system.
Ian Bremmer's "Us vs. Them" arrived at a pivotal moment in global politics. Named one of Bill Gates' top five books of 2018 and praised by Fareed Zakaria as "essential reading," it explains why populism surged worldwide and offers a roadmap for addressing the underlying causes. Drawing from Bremmer's personal journey from poverty in Chelsea, Massachusetts to global influence, the book resonates with both policy elites and ordinary citizens caught in economic upheaval. As inequality continues widening and technology disrupts traditional employment, understanding these divisions has never been more urgent.
第2章
The Breaking of the Global Consensus
Globalization-the cross-border flow of ideas, information, people, money, goods, and services-created an interconnected world where borders seemed increasingly irrelevant. While this lifted billions from poverty worldwide, particularly in developing nations like China and India, it simultaneously created profound vulnerabilities that elites consistently downplayed or ignored. The rapid pace of change left many communities struggling to adapt, as traditional industries declined and local economies transformed virtually overnight.
Steve Bannon's observation after Trump's election captured this dynamic perfectly: "The globalists gutted the American working class and created a middle class in Asia." This sentiment reflects a growing divide in how citizens view their nations' trajectories. While 87% of Chinese believe their country is moving in the right direction, only 43% of Americans share that optimism about their own nation. This stark contrast highlights how globalization's benefits and burdens have been unevenly distributed, creating winners and losers both between and within nations.
In Europe, unelected Brussels bureaucrats imposed one-size-fits-all policies across vastly different economies and cultures. When they demanded austerity measures from struggling southern economies like Greece and Spain while simultaneously insisting countries accept Muslim refugees, they inadvertently fueled nationalist backlash. Countries like Hungary and Poland began openly defying EU directives, while Italy's economic stagnation bred resentment toward Brussels' financial orthodoxy. The 2008-2009 financial crisis accelerated anti-establishment sentiment, with both Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party expressing different versions of the same fundamental grievance: the system serves elites at ordinary people's expense. The bailouts of major financial institutions while ordinary homeowners faced foreclosure became a powerful symbol of this disparity.
The European migrant crisis of 2015-2016 and subsequent terrorist attacks in Paris, Brussels, and Berlin further intensified these divisions. The arrival of over a million refugees in Germany alone sparked intense debates about national identity, security, and social cohesion. Brexit and Trump's election represented direct challenges to the globalist consensus, shocking establishment figures who had dismissed populist movements as fringe phenomena. Though Emmanuel Macron's victory in France and Angela Merkel's fourth term in Germany temporarily reassured globalists, the underlying problems remain unresolved, as evidenced by the continued rise of Alternative for Germany (AfD) and similar movements across Europe.
Globalism contains the seeds of its own destruction-even as it improves living standards globally, it breeds economic and cultural insecurity that drives fear-based reactions. This paradox lies at the heart of our current political moment. The challenge now facing political leaders is how to preserve globalization's benefits while addressing its discontents, from wage stagnation and income inequality to cultural displacement and democratic deficit. The COVID-19 pandemic further exposed the vulnerabilities of global supply chains and interdependence, accelerating calls for economic nationalism and reshoring of critical industries.
第3章
The Economics of Discontent
Globalization creates efficiency by moving production to regions with cheaper resources and labor. While this creates a global middle class in developing nations and provides affordable products to Western consumers, it disrupts livelihoods in developed countries.
The American middle class has steadily shrunk, with its share of aggregate income falling from 62% in 1970 to 43% by 2014. Nearly 40% of U.S. factory jobs have vanished since 1979. Official unemployment statistics mask harsh realities: many Americans work multiple low-wage jobs without benefits, struggle with temporary employment, or have simply stopped looking for work altogether.
Anyone earning under $10/hour working multiple jobs counts as "employed" even if they can't make rent. Temporary workers, part-time employees, and those who've given up looking aren't accurately reflected in unemployment figures. When the 2008-2009 financial crisis hit, the contrast between Wall Street bailouts and Main Street foreclosures crystallized public anger. As former Labor Secretary Robert Reich observed, "bankers got bailouts and workers got pink slips."
Trade hasn't become as toxic in Europe as in America, partly because European countries depend more on exports and offer stronger social safety nets. American politicians routinely promise trade adjustment assistance to help displaced workers but rarely deliver after deals are signed.
The trends fueling economic discontent will only intensify. Between 1980 and 2014, incomes for America's bottom half remained flat while the top 0.001 percent saw a staggering 636 percent increase. By 2016, the top 1 percent earned 81 times more than the bottom 50 percent, up from 27 times in 1981. Tax policies increasingly favor the wealthy, with governments becoming more dependent on taxing wages and consumption of individual citizens rather than corporate profits or investment income.
Perhaps most alarming, automation threatens to eliminate half of current jobs in major American cities by 2035, with insufficient new job creation to offset these losses. The rising cost of education-projected to reach $215,000 for public universities and $500,000 for private ones for children born in 2017-will further compound inequality as only those who can afford training will secure good jobs in the new economy.
第4章
Cultural Anxiety in a Changing World
Globalization doesn't just move products-it moves people, creating profound anxiety by fundamentally shifting the racial, ethnic, linguistic, and religious makeup of communities. In the United States, debates over immigration have become increasingly heated, with many Americans expressing concerns that illegal immigrants take low-wage jobs from native workers or place undue burdens on public assistance systems, from healthcare to education. In Europe, the free movement guaranteed by EU membership creates similar tensions, as workers from poorer eastern countries like Romania and Bulgaria migrate to wealthier western nations like Germany and France, challenging local labor markets and social cohesion.
Research by political scientist Lee Drutman revealed a crucial demographic: "populist" voters who supported Obama in 2012 but switched to Trump in 2016. These voters displayed an interesting combination of beliefs-they strongly supported traditional safety net programs like Social Security and Medicare while simultaneously harboring negative views of minorities and immigrants. The data showed that nearly two-thirds of Trump's primary supporters believed being Christian was important to being "truly American," suggesting a deep-seated view that minorities, especially Muslims, weren't fully American. This religious and cultural litmus test for "Americanness" represents a significant shift from previous decades.
The European migrant crisis of 2015-2016 brought the largest influx of displaced people since World War II, with over one million arrivals, many of them Muslims fleeing violence in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. This massive demographic shift made many Europeans feel increasingly insecure about their national futures and cultural identities. A series of terrorist attacks by European-born Muslims in Paris, Brussels, and other cities intensified these fears and complicated integration efforts. The financial burden is substantial-Germany alone estimates integration costs at 400 billion euros through 2030, including language training, housing, and job preparation programs, while welfare systems strain under unprecedented demands.
The political backlash has dramatically transformed Europe's political landscape. Far-right parties have gained unprecedented power, particularly in Eastern Europe where the Visegrad countries (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia) have not only refused EU refugee quotas but have also implemented increasingly restrictive immigration policies. In Western Europe, parties like France's National Rally and Italy's League have made significant electoral gains by focusing on immigration concerns. These pressures show no signs of abating, with the UNHCR reporting 65.6 million refugees worldwide as of 2016, a number that continues to grow due to ongoing conflicts and climate change impacts.
Multiple studies have demonstrated direct correlations between rising income inequality and increases in hate crimes and anti-immigrant sentiment. As economic anxiety intensifies, people become more susceptible to narratives that blame outsiders for their problems, whether those outsiders are immigrants, religious minorities, or ethnic groups. This creates fertile ground for populist politicians who excel at drawing sharp boundaries between "us" and "them"-whether the "them" represents wealthy elites, foreigners, religious minorities, establishment politicians, or international bankers. This dynamic has become particularly powerful in areas experiencing rapid demographic change combined with economic stagnation.
第5章
The Developing World's Perfect Storm
While Western nations grapple with populism, developing countries face an even more dangerous convergence of threats. The technological revolution poses unprecedented pressure on nations with fragile institutions and limited resources. While automation threatens 47% of jobs in the United States, the UN warns that two-thirds of all jobs in developing countries are at risk-65% in Nigeria, 69% in India, and 77% in China. These statistics represent millions of workers whose livelihoods hang in the balance, particularly in manufacturing, agriculture, and service sectors.
The traditional development pattern-rural youth migrating to cities for factory jobs, gradually demanding higher wages, and forming new consumer classes-is breaking down at an alarming rate. Robotics and AI are eliminating the low-wage advantage that helped poor countries develop. Manufacturers increasingly find replacing workers with robots more economical than relocating to low-wage countries. For example, Adidas's "speedfactory" in Germany uses advanced robotics to produce shoes that were previously manufactured in Southeast Asia. With 3D printing and advanced manufacturing, production can remain close to customers, disrupting traditional supply chains that developing nations relied upon.
This disruption threatens to create a vicious circle: youth without paths to employment, reduced wages for remaining workers, lower government revenues, and less funding for education and infrastructure. Countries like Bangladesh, where the garment industry employs millions, face particular vulnerability as automation threatens to eliminate these entry-level manufacturing jobs. Unlike wealthy nations with digital literacy, advanced educational systems, and social safety nets, developing countries lack the resources to help citizens adapt to this technological revolution. Many struggle with basic infrastructure needs while simultaneously trying to prepare their workforce for an increasingly digital future.
The 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer reveals that among twelve major developing countries, trust in government is highest in Asian markets-China, India, and Indonesia-giving them a crucial advantage in weathering coming disruptions. This trust enables governments to implement difficult reforms and long-term planning. Brazil and Mexico maintain middle-tier trust levels despite public scandals, while South Africa and Turkey score lower, hampering their ability to implement necessary changes.
Demographics are shifting from advantage to liability-while globalization once favored countries with large youth populations like India, automation means expanding populations create dangerous disadvantages as fewer jobs emerge per unit of economic growth. For instance, while India needs to create 12 million new jobs annually to absorb its growing workforce, automation is reducing the number of jobs created by economic growth. Countries with large youth populations and lower per capita incomes-Nigeria, Egypt, Venezuela, India, Indonesia, and South Africa-face the greatest challenges. These nations must simultaneously manage urbanization, education reform, and technological adaptation while their traditional paths to development narrow.
The challenge is particularly acute in regions like sub-Saharan Africa, where the working-age population is expected to grow by 800 million by 2050, even as automation threatens traditional employment opportunities. This combination of demographic pressure and technological disruption creates unprecedented challenges for developing nations' stability and growth prospects.
第6章
Nations at the Breaking Point
South Africa exemplifies the broken promise of post-apartheid prosperity. From 2004-2008, commodity booms drove robust 4.8% growth, but this plummeted to 1.1% by 2016. Nearly 20 million people between fifteen and thirty-five face devastating unemployment-only 6.2 million have jobs. Youth unemployment is double the adult rate and nearly four times higher for black youth (40%) than white youth (11%), translating economic frustration into "us vs. them" dynamics targeting the elite, police, whites, foreign investors, or immigrant workers.
Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation and largest economy, is profoundly divided between Christians and Muslims. Despite strong economic growth, Nigeria ranks last among 152 countries in "commitment to reducing inequality," with "shamefully low" spending on health and education. The country's inequality is stark: while its richest man earns in one day what a poor Nigerian spends on basic needs in eight years, poverty has increased by nearly 70% (from 69 million people in 2004 to 112 million in 2010).
In Egypt, bread riots erupted in 2017 as thousands protested government cuts to subsidized bread. Nearly 30% of Egypt's 90 million people live in poverty-the highest level this century. The problems that sparked the 2011 Arab Spring remain unresolved despite President Sisi's military takeover. With over half the population under twenty-five and 750,000 college graduates annually entering a job market that can't absorb them, Egypt faces a demographic time bomb.
Saudi Arabia presents a unique case of tension between tradition and modernity. Despite a per capita income above $20,000 (five times higher than Egypt's), Saudi Arabia faces structural economic challenges. Two-thirds of the workforce holds government jobs, many created merely to distribute oil wealth. Foreign workers comprise nearly a third of the population and 75% of the private sector workforce, performing virtually all physical labor. The Saudi economy, dependent on oil for 90% of exports and government revenue, faces an existential threat from energy market revolution.
Brazil represents a case where government became victim of its own success. Under the Workers Party (2003-2013), the middle class expanded dramatically from 35% to nearly 60% of the population through commodity exports to China and wealth redistribution programs. But now these newly middle-class citizens demand better government services just as Brazil faces economic crisis from falling commodity prices, currency devaluation, and political scandals.
第7章
The Rise of Walls and Barriers
As globalization's discontents grow, walls become politically satisfying solutions that offer visible security. Israel demonstrates this reality, where security barriers create stark contrasts: $35,000 per capita income inside versus $4,300 outside; 4% unemployment versus 18% in the West Bank and 42% in Gaza; infant mortality rates of 3.5 inside versus 17.1 outside.
These barriers take many forms: economic protectionism, censorship, immigration restrictions, and new divisions within societies. As protectionism lowers long-term growth, the economic pie shrinks, fueling demand for populist leaders who promise higher walls.
In the twenty-first century, walls aren't just for physical goods-they're increasingly built to control data and information. China has proven the most innovative at centralizing control of information while still providing digital services. The Chinese government uses multiple tools to maintain its "cyber sovereignty": regulations controlling online news distribution, state training for editors, warnings to platforms, blocking of foreign sites, and national security reviews for IT products. Technical controls include the "Great Firewall" blocking thousands of websites, the "Golden Shield" surveillance system using keywords to shut down sensitive content, and the "Great Cannon" which can alter online content and attack websites through denial of service attacks.
Physical border walls are proliferating-more exist at European borders now than during the Cold War, with over forty countries having built barriers against neighbors since the Berlin Wall fell. As automation eliminates the economic argument for low-wage immigrant labor, even in aging countries like Germany and Italy, the pressure for tighter controls will intensify.
Governments are also creating new divisions within their borders. Malaysia's "affirmative action" for its ethnic Malay majority has become permanent as officials discovered discrimination wins elections. China's hukou system controls internal migration by determining what benefits citizens receive based on their registered location. In the United States, divisions are growing organically through self-sorting. Studies show American schools are more racially segregated than in the late 1960s, and 40% of white Americans have exclusively same-race friends.
Modern governments are developing unprecedented tools for population control. India's Aadhaar biometric identification system has registered over a billion citizens with iris scans and fingerprints, initially to streamline benefits but increasingly becoming mandatory for essential services. China's experimental "social credit system" tracks not just financial history but potentially all aspects of citizens' behavior-from traffic violations to online activity to political loyalty. The government describes it as allowing "the trustworthy to roam everywhere under heaven while making it hard for the discredited to take a single step."
第8章
Rewriting the Social Contract
There are alternatives to building walls between people. Governments can rebuild relationships with citizens by rewriting the social contract to address modern needs. Inequality will be a prime target, as history shows trouble follows when the gap between rich and poor grows too wide.
Education must become a lifelong process in the digital age. Rather than abandoning liberal arts, critical thinking, creativity, and communication skills become more essential alongside technical knowledge. Studies show early education is crucial for battling inequality, with investments like New York City's universal prekindergarten program helping 70,000 children while relieving parents of childcare costs.
As automation reduces traditional workforces, governments must consider new tax approaches. The concept of taxing robots has gained traction, with even Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates endorsing it to fund worker retraining and support displaced employees. Gates suggests redirecting excess labor toward education and elder care-areas where human workers remain essential.
The gig economy isn't merely a fad but a growing reality-half of all European jobs created between 2010-2016 were temporary contracts. As automation reduces full-time positions, freelance and part-time work will become increasingly common, requiring a fundamental reorganization of social safety nets.
"Guaranteed basic income" is gaining traction across Europe as another solution. Finland experimented by providing 560 monthly to 2,000 unemployed citizens, allowing them to accept part-time work without losing benefits. This isn't a radical new concept-Thomas Paine proposed a similar idea in 1797, Richard Nixon's partial basic income plan passed the House in 1968, and even libertarian economist Friedrich Hayek supported "a minimum income for every person."
Beyond government, the private sector increasingly fills gaps where public institutions fail. BlackRock founder Larry Fink has demanded companies serve social purposes beyond profit, while tech companies like Facebook and Google address concrete needs from affordable housing to internet infrastructure. AT&T's innovative worker education program offers "nanodegrees" and career intelligence tools to help employees adapt to automation.
第9章
Beyond the Politics of Division
The explosion of data and algorithmic advancement presents an unprecedented universal danger. Social media algorithms now understand our interests, preferences, and behavioral patterns with disturbing accuracy - often better than our closest friends and family members. This intimate knowledge makes citizens increasingly susceptible to manipulation through targeted fake news, sophisticated digital deception, and emotionally-charged content designed to trigger specific responses. Political campaigns increasingly employ technical specialists who weaponize these tools, micro-targeting voters with personalized messaging that exploits their fears and biases. The result is a citizenry that grows increasingly cynical, distrustful, and likely to disengage from meaningful political participation.
Nations face a stark choice: build technological and social walls or fundamentally rewrite the social contract for the digital age. Both paths require robust, capable government institutions with substantial resources and public trust. Digital walls create a form of technological apartheid - protecting privileged groups while abandoning others to surveillance and manipulation. This approach is already visible in China's social credit system and the emerging "splinternet." Reinventing the social contract seems politically impossible in many places because global elites continue to profit handsomely from the current system while being insulated from its negative effects.
When critics focus exclusively on polarizing political figures like Trump rather than examining the underlying economic and social problems that elevated them to power, they inadvertently deepen the us-vs-them divide. Similarly, dismissing European concerns about open borders as simple racism ignores legitimate practical challenges: unlimited migration encourages dangerous journeys across the Mediterranean, overwhelms smaller countries' social service systems, and enables autocratic regimes to expel political dissidents. Democratic legitimacy suffers when crucial decisions affecting citizens' daily lives are increasingly made by unelected technocrats and officials outside their borders.
These challenges are even more acute for developing nations, where automation and artificial intelligence will disrupt workforces that lack robust social safety nets. Without adequate resources for technological innovation, education reform, and workforce development, governments will struggle to create meaningful economic opportunities. This vacuum creates fertile ground for social unrest and allows political officials to exploit ethnic, religious, and class divisions for short-term gain.
Historical evidence shows that humanity often rises to meet existential challenges when survival demands it. Even those who initially embrace conflict often reconsider when confronted with its true human and economic costs. Our species' survival now depends on inventing new ways to live together in an interconnected world - necessity must once again become the mother of invention. The future depends not on building higher walls, whether physical or digital, but on creating sustainable bridges between globalization's winners and losers before the societal divide becomes truly unbridgeable. This requires reimagining our economic systems, educational institutions, and democratic processes to ensure they serve the broader public good rather than narrow interests.
