Who should read *Superforecasting*?

This book suits professionals in finance, policy analysis, and strategic planning who need to assess risks, plus anyone interested in decision-making psychology. Leaders managing uncertainty and self-improvers seeking to reduce cognitive biases will find practical frameworks like probabilistic forecasting and belief updating invaluable.

Is *Superforecasting* worth reading in 2025?

Yes – its evidence-based approach to geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasting remains vital in our AI-driven era. The 2025 reader gains tools to navigate misinformation and rapid change, with studies showing superforecasters outperforming intelligence analysts by 60% even a decade after publication.

What distinguishes "foxes" from "hedgehogs" in forecasting?

**Foxes** aggregate diverse viewpoints, express probabilities precisely, and revise forecasts frequently. **Hedgehogs** rely on single ideological frameworks, make bold yes/no predictions, and resist updating beliefs. Tetlock's research shows foxes consistently outperform hedgehogs across 20 years of geopolitical forecasting.

How did the Good Judgment Project prove superforecasting works?

This US government-funded study (2011-2015) demonstrated that crowdsourced forecasters using structured techniques beat CIA analysts with classified data. Top performers achieved 60% greater accuracy than professionals by applying belief updating, Fermi problem-solving, and collaborative error-checking.

What is "Fermi-izing" in prediction?

Named after physicist Enrico Fermi, this technique breaks complex questions into smaller, answerable components. For example, estimating pandemic spread by analyzing: - Transmission rates - Vaccine development timelines - Government response effectiveness This method reduces overconfidence and enables granular probability assessments.

Why is belief updating crucial for accurate forecasting?

Superforecasters revise predictions 2-3x more frequently than average forecasters. They treat opinions as "hypotheses in need of testing," systematically adjusting probabilities as new data emerges. This counters confirmation bias – a key reason why 72% of experts underperform basic prediction algorithms.

What does the "dragonfly mindset" entail?

Inspired by insects' multi-lens vision, this approach synthesizes contradictory perspectives into unified forecasts. Practitioners: 1. Gather opposing viewpoints 2. Identify valid arguments in each 3. Create weighted probability models This prevents single-narrative thinking while maintaining decisiveness.

超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標

Q: What is *Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction* about?

*Superforecasting* explores how ordinary people achieve extraordinary prediction accuracy through structured reasoning, probabilistic thinking, and continuous belief updating. Authors Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner analyze findings from the decade-long Good Judgment Project, revealing techniques like "Fermi-izing" complex questions and using "dragonfly forecasting" to synthesize multiple perspectives. The book challenges the myth of expert infallibility while providing actionable strategies for improving foresight.

フィリップ・E・テトロック & ダン・ガードナー

4.08(21753 Reviews)

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』の概要

テトロックの画期的な予測研究において、なぜ一般の人々が諜報機関を凌駕したのか、その理由を解き明かしましょう。予測は本当に学ぶことができるのでしょうか？このニューヨーク・タイムズのベストセラーは、機密情報を自由に扱える専門家さえも打ち負かす「スーパーフォーキャスター（超予測力を持つ人々）」を支える思考のツールキットを明らかにします。

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第1章

The Crystal Ball Revolution: How Ordinary People Outpredict Experts

In 2011, a retired USDA employee from Nebraska named Bill Flack began answering difficult geopolitical forecasting questions like "Will Russia annex additional Ukrainian territory?" Despite lacking the celebrity status of pundits like Tom Friedman, Bill consistently makes remarkably accurate predictions. He's part of a group called "superforecasters" - ordinary people who consistently outperform experts, intelligence analysts, and prediction markets when forecasting global events. This phenomenon emerged from the Good Judgment Project, a forecasting tournament sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) where over 20,000 volunteers predicted global events ranging from Russian protests to gold prices. The project revealed two critical findings: first, foresight is real and measurable; second, forecasting excellence comes not from innate talent but from specific thinking habits that anyone can learn. My research comparing expert forecasters to "dart-throwing chimpanzees" has been widely misinterpreted. What I actually found was that average experts performed only slightly better than random guessing on political and economic questions. This doesn't mean all expertise is worthless - some experts significantly outperform others. I position myself as an "optimistic skeptic" - recognizing forecasting's limits while believing intelligent, open-minded people can develop meaningful predictive skills. While acknowledging prediction's limits in complex systems (the famous "butterfly effect"), dismissing all forecasting as futile would be a mistake. Our daily lives are filled with reliable predictions - from rush hour traffic patterns to sunrise times. Reality contains both clocklike predictability and cloudlike uncertainty, with the balance depending on what we're predicting, timeframe, and circumstances.

第2章

The Deadly Certainty Trap

Our minds rush to judgment and resist changing course, even when wrong. This cognitive trap is illustrated by Archie Cochrane's story from 1956, when a renowned specialist confidently diagnosed him with terminal cancer. Cochrane accepted this death sentence without question, methodically planning his remaining time - only to discover the specialist was completely wrong. Neither man had questioned the diagnosis or waited for the pathologist's report. Medical history reveals a disturbing pattern: most treatments throughout history were useless or harmful. From ancient Egyptian ostrich egg poultices to George Washington's physicians who bled, purged, and blistered him to death in 1799, physicians rarely questioned their ineffective methods. As surgeon-historian Ira Rutkow observed, these physicians were "like blind men arguing over the colors of the rainbow." The cure for medicine's plague of certainty was painfully slow to emerge. Though James Lind conducted what resembled a modern experiment in 1747 by testing different scurvy treatments on sailors, not until the twentieth century did randomized trials and statistical methods take hold. Archie Cochrane, who championed scientific validation in the 1950s and 1960s, faced fierce opposition from physicians with what he called "the God complex" - the belief that their judgment alone revealed truth. Our thinking operates in two distinct systems. System 1 is fast, automatic, and constantly running in the background - delivering instant judgments without conscious effort. System 2 is our familiar conscious thought, which requires focus and effort. Most of us rely heavily on System 1's snap judgments, which follow primitive psycho-logic: if it feels true, it is. We often unconsciously substitute hard questions with easier ones - a mental sleight-of-hand called attribute substitution or "bait and switch." When Cochrane was told he had terminal cancer, he unconsciously substituted "Is this the sort of person who should know if I have cancer?" for "Do I have cancer?" Our minds crave coherent explanations, leading us to confirmation bias - eagerly gathering supportive evidence while dismissing contradictory information.

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『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』の一語一語が音声に合わせてリアルタイムでハイライトされ、自然に読み進められます。

第3章

The Science of Prediction

When physicians learned to doubt themselves, they turned to randomized controlled trials for scientific testing. While measuring forecasting accuracy might seem straightforward, it's surprisingly complex. Consider Steve Ballmer's infamous 2007 prediction that "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share." Though widely mocked as spectacularly wrong, his full statement was more nuanced, referring to the global mobile phone market. By 2013, iPhones had about 6% of that market - higher than his predicted "2% or 3%" but not laugh-out-loud wrong. Forecasts must be testable to be valuable, but many obstacles stand in the way. Forecasts often lack clear timelines or precise definitions of key terms, making them impossible to verify. Probability presents an even bigger challenge - we can't rerun history to determine if a 70% chance prediction was accurate. Sherman Kent, a CIA legend, tried to solve this by creating a numerical probability scale to replace vague language, but faced resistance from those who preferred ambiguous terms that couldn't be proven wrong. To properly evaluate forecasts, we need benchmarks and comparability. Comparing forecasters requires a level playing field - predicting weather in highly variable Springfield is harder than in stable Phoenix. This means carefully crafted experiments are essential: assembling forecasters, asking precise questions with clear timeframes, requiring numerical probabilities, and waiting for results. In the mid-1980s, I began a forecasting experiment that would span decades. I recruited 284 serious professionals who analyzed political and economic trends - academics, government officials, and others. They made roughly 28,000 forecasts on diverse topics across one to ten-year timeframes. This allowed comparison between true subject-matter experts and well-informed generalists. The average expert performed no better than random guessing - like a dart-throwing chimpanzee. However, two distinct groups emerged: one that failed to beat random chance, and another that modestly outperformed it. The difference wasn't in credentials or information access, but thinking style. The underperformers, whom I dubbed "hedgehogs," organized thinking around Big Ideas and ideologies, expressed high confidence, and resisted changing their minds when wrong. The better performers - "foxes" - used diverse analytical tools, acknowledged uncertainty, spoke of probabilities rather than certainties, and more readily admitted errors.

第4章

The Birth of Superforecasting

The 2002 National Intelligence Estimate that concluded Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction represents one of history's worst intelligence failures. The critical error wasn't being wrong but expressing absolute certainty where uncertainty existed. The intelligence community never seriously explored alternative possibilities or conducted "red team" analyses challenging prevailing views. Despite spending $50 billion annually and employing 100,000 people (including 20,000 analysts), the intelligence community has never systematically tracked forecast accuracy. Officials may claim 80-90% accuracy rates, but these are mere guesses. Instead of measuring results, the IC holds analysts accountable only for process - checking whether they followed proper procedures rather than whether their judgments proved correct. After presenting superforecasters' success, I urge skepticism. Consider my coin-toss thought experiment: if 2,800 volunteers predicted 104 coin tosses, pure chance would create a bell curve with some appearing extraordinarily skilled through random luck. To determine if superforecasters possess genuine skill or just luck, we must examine regression to the mean - if purely lucky, their performance should regress completely to average in subsequent years. Remarkably, superforecasters didn't regress; they actually increased their lead in years 2 and 3. While approximately 30% fall from the top ranks each year, 70% consistently remain superforecasters - odds of 1 in 3 given the 0.65 year-to-year correlation, versus 1 in 100,000,000 if purely random. This confirms superforecasters possess genuine skill, though luck still plays a role. The big question remains: why are they so good?

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』をもっと深く楽しむ

毎日の新しい気づきを10万件以上のレッスンから
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第5章

The Superforecaster Mindset

In 2008, Sanford "Sandy" Sillman was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis. Though not life-threatening, the disease weakened him, caused pain, and made walking and typing difficult. By 2011, at fifty-seven, he could see he would soon need to leave his job as an atmospheric scientist. Anticipating the void this would create, Sandy joined the Good Judgment Project as a forecaster, seeking a meaningful transition activity that would "keep his mind alive" without the pressure of his former work. The ability to break down complex questions into manageable parts is crucial for superforecasters. Enrico Fermi famously challenged students to estimate seemingly impossible questions like "How many piano tuners are in Chicago?" The key is decomposing the question into smaller, more answerable parts: how many pianos exist in Chicago, how often they're tuned, how long tuning takes, and how many hours tuners work annually. Even with imperfect information, this structured approach produces surprisingly accurate estimates. When IARPA asked forecasters if Swiss or French inquiries would find elevated polonium levels in Yasser Arafat's exhumed body, the question demanded careful analysis beyond gut reactions. Most people would instinctively answer a different question-"Did Israel poison Arafat?"-rather than the actual question posed. This is System 1's classic bait-and-switch. Superforecaster Bill Flack avoided this trap by breaking down the question. Though lacking Middle East expertise, he first examined whether polonium could still be detected years after death. He then identified multiple pathways to contamination and noted that only one of two European teams needed a positive result for a "yes" answer. This methodical breakdown created a roadmap for analysis that avoided the intuitive error most would make. Before diving into case specifics, superforecasters establish a "base rate" or "outside view"-how common something is within a broader class. While the inside view (specific details) is concrete and engaging, the outside view provides a statistical foundation. For example, when predicting pet ownership for a family, starting with the fact that 62% of American households own pets creates a better starting point than analyzing the family's specific characteristics. After establishing the outside view, superforecasters explore the inside view through targeted investigation. Using a framework, Bill Flack examined specific hypotheses about Arafat's possible polonium poisoning: Israel could have poisoned him; Palestinian enemies could have done it; or someone could have contaminated his remains posthumously. For each hypothesis, he identified necessary conditions, methodically analyzing each one. The final step is merging outside and inside views. Superforecaster David Rogg demonstrated this when addressing whether Islamist militants would attack certain European countries between January and March 2015. First, he established the outside view by counting previous attacks in those countries (six in five years, or 1.2 per year). Then he adjusted for inside-view factors, calculated the proportion of the year in question, and multiplied to reach a 34% probability.

第6章

The Numbers Game

We live in the Big Data era where data scientists use powerful computers and complex math to extract meaning from vast information networks. Superforecasters are comfortable with numbers - most aced basic numeracy tests and many have backgrounds in math, science or computer programming. While some occasionally deploy mathematical models (like Bill Flack using Monte Carlo simulations for currency forecasts), most superforecasters don't rely on complex mathematical techniques. Their numeracy helps in more subtle ways than performing statistical wizardry. In early 2011, intelligence analysts had to judge whether Osama bin Laden was hiding in a peculiar Abbottabad compound. The movie Zero Dark Thirty dramatizes this scenario, showing CIA Director Leon Panetta (played by James Gandolfini) asking analysts for their confidence levels. The fictional Panetta grows frustrated when analysts offer varying probabilities, calling it a "clusterfuck." But this diversity of independent judgments actually represents valuable "wisdom of the crowd." The real Leon Panetta welcomed the diversity of opinions ranging from 30-40% to over 90%, explaining, "I encourage the people around me not to tell me what they thought I wanted to hear but what they believed." Mark Bowden's book The Finish describes a similar scene with President Obama receiving varied CIA probability estimates about bin Laden's presence - from 95% to as low as 30-40%. Obama responded by declaring it "fifty-fifty" and "a flip of the coin." As Amos Tversky once joked, most people only have three probability settings: "gonna happen," "not gonna happen," and "maybe" - a simplification that captures a fundamental truth about human judgment. Humans coped with uncertainty long before formal probability theory emerged. Our ancestors relied on intuitive judgments with essentially three settings: yes, no, or maybe. This simplified approach made evolutionary sense - when spotting movement in tall grass, you needed quick decisions about lions, not fine-grained probability estimates. Research shows we overvalue certainty, willing to pay significantly more to reduce risk from 5% to 0% than from 10% to 5%. We also equate confidence with competence, distrusting forecasters who express middling probabilities. Scientists approach probability radically differently, embracing uncertainty as an ineradicable element of reality. Scientific "facts" once considered solid can be overturned by new evidence - all knowledge remains tentative. This means the intuitive two- and three-setting mental dials (yes/no/maybe) are fundamentally flawed. Instead, probabilistic thinking requires subdividing "maybe" into precise numerical gradations. Superforecasters, like scientists and mathematicians, are natural probabilistic thinkers who grasp the distinction between "epistemic" uncertainty (theoretically knowable) and "aleatory" uncertainty (fundamentally unknowable). When facing questions loaded with irreducible uncertainty, they remain cautious, keeping initial estimates between 35% and 65%. Unlike average forecasters who frequently use "fifty-fifty" as a stand-in for "maybe," superforecasters are remarkably precise, using granular estimates like 37% rather than rounded numbers like 30% or 40%.

聴きながら、すべての言葉を目で追えます

第7章

The Continuous Learning Cycle

Superforecasting follows a methodical process: unpacking questions into components, scrutinizing assumptions, adopting both outside and inside views, exploring different perspectives, synthesizing information like a dragonfly's compound vision, and expressing judgments on fine-grained probability scales. But this initial forecast is just the beginning. Unlike lottery tickets, forecasts must be continuously updated as new information emerges. Updating forecasts requires distinguishing between obvious developments that everyone sees and subtler information that provides competitive advantage. Bill Flack demonstrated this skill when the Swiss team investigating Yasser Arafat's remains announced a delay for additional testing. Understanding polonium's properties, Bill inferred this likely meant they had detected polonium and were testing to rule out natural lead decay as its source. He cautiously raised his forecast to 65% yes before others recognized the significance - a decision validated when polonium was indeed found. Underreaction to new information can destroy forecasts. Sometimes it's simply due to practical constraints - Joshua Frankel failed to update his Syria forecast when swamped with work. More insidious is when psychological biases interfere. The most tenacious form of underreaction comes from belief perseverance - our reluctance to change established beliefs. The more central a belief is to our identity, the harder it is to dislodge, like removing a critical block from a Jenga tower. Overreaction to new information can be just as damaging. Psychology experiments show we're swayed by completely irrelevant information - a phenomenon called the dilution effect. This bias explains much of the excessive trading in financial markets. As Burton Malkiel observed, many investors hop between stocks "as if selecting and discarding cards in gin rummy," with studies showing frequent traders earned 11.4% annual returns during a period when the market averaged 17.9%. Tim Minto, a Vancouver software engineer who won the third season of the IARPA tournament with an impressive 0.15 Brier score, exemplifies masterful belief updating. Unlike other forecasters, Tim's approach involves constant but tiny adjustments - averaging just 3.5% changes per update. On a question about Syrian refugees, he updated 34 times over three months, gradually steering toward the correct answer without dramatic swings. This methodical approach helps navigate between the twin dangers of forecasting: underreaction and overreaction.

第8章

The Growth Mindset

Failure drove Mary Simpson, a PhD economist, to become a superforecaster. Despite her expertise, she completely missed the 2007 financial crisis until it was too late, watching her retirement savings crater. This frustrating experience motivated her to improve her forecasting abilities, believing she could and should do better. Psychologist Carol Dweck would identify this as a "growth mindset" - the belief that abilities can be developed through effort and learning, rather than being fixed traits. John Maynard Keynes exemplified this growth mindset. Beyond his macroeconomic theories, Keynes was a remarkably successful investor who managed money between the World Wars. Despite devastating setbacks - nearly wiped out by wrong currency forecasts in 1920 and blindsided by the 1929 crash - Keynes rebounded stronger each time by embracing his mistakes as learning opportunities. He prided himself on his willingness to change his mind, famously quipping "There is no harm in being sometimes wrong, especially if one is promptly found out." Learning to forecast requires actually forecasting, just as learning to ride a bicycle requires getting on one. Philosopher Michael Polanyi demonstrated this by writing a technically perfect explanation of bicycle physics that would leave anyone who read it still unable to ride. We need "tacit knowledge" that can only come from direct experience. Effective practice requires clear, timely feedback - something most forecasters lack. Without it, forecasters suffer from hindsight bias, the tendency to misremember predictions once outcomes are known. In Fischhoff's experiments, people consistently recalled their estimates as closer to actual outcomes than they really were. When experts were asked in 1988 about the likelihood of the Communist Party losing power in the Soviet Union, then asked in 1992-93 to recall their estimates, they remembered probabilities 31 percentage points higher than their actual forecasts - a classic "I knew it all along" effect. Superforecasters conduct thorough postmortems of their predictions, eager to learn from both successes and failures. After a question closes, they analyze what went wrong and how to improve, sharing lengthy discussions with teammates. Unlike most experts who dismiss "I was almost wrong" scenarios while embracing "I was almost right" ones, superforecasters readily acknowledge when luck played a role in their successful predictions. Forecasting requires what Angela Duckworth calls "grit" - passionate perseverance toward long-term goals despite frustration and failure. Elizabeth Sloane exemplifies this, volunteering for the Good Judgment Project while battling brain cancer to "re-grow her synapses." Anne Kilkenny, a housewife from Alaska with no geopolitical background, demonstrated remarkable tenacity by researching UN refugee data in the Central African Republic, even emailing the agency directly and overcoming language barriers to get better information.

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』をもっと深く楽しむ

毎日の新しい気づきを10万件以上のレッスンから
言葉をハイライトして音声と同期
ライブラリを保存して、どの端末からでも利用

第9章

The Power of Collaboration

The Kennedy administration's contrasting experiences with the Bay of Pigs disaster and the Cuban missile crisis illustrate how the same team can produce both catastrophic failures and brilliant successes. After the Bay of Pigs fiasco, Kennedy transformed his decision-making culture by instituting skepticism, designating "intellectual watchdogs" to challenge assumptions, setting aside protocol and hierarchy, bringing in fresh perspectives, and sometimes absenting himself to encourage freer discussion. The first year's results of our forecasting tournament were unequivocal: teams were 23% more accurate than individuals. For year two, the researchers created special "superteams" of top forecasters, providing guidance on team functioning and online communication forums. Initially, many superforecasters felt intimidated by teammates with impressive credentials, and discussions were hampered by excessive politeness - what Marty Rosenthal called "dancing around" difficult topics. Over time, team dynamics improved as members explicitly welcomed criticism and thanked others for constructive feedback. Without formal leadership structures, effective members like Rosenthal practiced "leading from behind" - setting examples of thorough analysis and organizing occasional conference calls. Face-to-face meetings strengthened team bonds, and members developed a strong sense of commitment. Superteams divided workloads but paradoxically increased individual effort - members like Elaine Rich found teamwork "tons more work" but also "a rush." Teams excelled at information gathering, with members like Paul Theron contacting experts and sharing findings. The results were remarkable: superforecasters placed on teams became 50% more accurate, and superteams outperformed prediction markets by 15-30%, despite economists' expectations that markets would dominate. Superteams succeeded by avoiding both groupthink and destructive conflict, creating "psychological safety" for challenging ideas respectfully. A team's actively open-minded thinking correlated with accuracy, but interestingly, team open-mindedness emerged from communication patterns rather than simply aggregating individual scores. The most successful teams fostered a culture of sharing, with "givers" like Marty Rosenthal, Doug Lorch, and Tim Minto contributing tools and analyses that benefited everyone - and these givers, far from being chumps, consistently ranked among the top individual forecasters.

第10章

The Leadership Challenge

Leaders must both make accurate forecasts and achieve goals through decisive action, creating an apparent contradiction. Effective leadership requires confidence, decisiveness, and vision - qualities that seem at odds with the superforecaster's uncertainty, deliberative thinking, and humility. How can leaders inspire confidence while seeing nothing as certain? How can they be decisive while engaging in slow, complex thinking? The resolution to this leadership dilemma comes from 19th-century Prussian general Helmuth von Moltke, whose approach shaped modern military and corporate leadership. Moltke embraced uncertainty ("In war, everything is uncertain") and recognized that "no plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy's main strength" - now simplified as "no plan survives contact with the enemy." The Prussian military cultivated critical thinking through education that encouraged discussion and disagreement. Even junior officers could challenge generals' views. In extraordinary circumstances, disobedience was tolerated if justified - as when General Seydlitz refused King Frederick's order to attack prematurely, saying "Tell the King that after the battle my head is at his disposal, but meanwhile I will make use of it." The key principle was Auftragstaktik (mission command) - pushing decision-making power down the hierarchy so those on the ground could respond quickly to battlefield surprises. Commanders told subordinates what goal to achieve but not how to achieve it, allowing officers to devise plans based on actual circumstances rather than headquarters' expectations. While the Wehrmacht embodied Moltke's principles of independent thinking, America's post-WWI army initially rejected such approaches. When junior officer Eisenhower published an article advocating for tanks, he was threatened with court-martial for expressing ideas "incompatible with solid infantry doctrine." Despite this culture, exceptional officers like Patton and Eisenhower valued individual initiative. Patton captured Auftragstaktik perfectly: "Never tell people how to do things. Tell them what to do, and they will surprise you with their ingenuity." As Supreme Commander, Eisenhower embodied Moltke's leadership - acknowledging uncertainty, maintaining a calm demeanor despite private anxieties, and encouraging open debate among officers. Moltke's philosophy extends beyond military contexts into business leadership. William Coyne of 3M articulated this perfectly: "We let our people know what we want them to accomplish. But-and it is a very big 'but'-we do not tell them how to achieve those goals." Jeff Bezos's leadership principle "Have backbone; disagree and commit" similarly encourages respectful challenging of decisions while maintaining full commitment once decisions are made.

聴きながら、すべての言葉を目で追えます

第11章

The Future of Forecasting

For months, the Scottish independence referendum seemed predictable, with "no" leading 57% to 43%. But two weeks before the September 2014 vote, polls shifted dramatically, giving "yes" the edge before another small shift put "no" slightly ahead with 9% still undecided. The outcome wasn't obvious until "no" won by a surprisingly wide 55.3% to 44.7% margin (a forecast superforecasters aced). Political scientist Daniel Drezner broke from the typical pundit pattern of confident post-hoc analysis, instead asking the crucial question: "What does one do with data points like this to adjust one's worldview?" He recognized that without clear, scorable forecasts, we can't get the feedback needed for learning. Drezner committed to making clear predictions with confidence intervals going forward. Forecasting tournaments may look like games with their scores and leaderboards, but the stakes are substantial. Good forecasting can determine business success or failure, policy effectiveness, and even peace or war. If US intelligence hadn't claimed certainty about Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, the disastrous Iraq invasion might have been avoided. The strongest resistance to evidence-based forecasting comes from what Lenin called "kto-kogo" politics - the struggle for power where accuracy is secondary to advancing one's interests. When Nate Silver's forecasts favored Obama, Democrats praised him and Republicans reviled him; when he later predicted Republican Senate control, Democrats suddenly questioned his competence. A century ago, physician Ernest Codman proposed his "End Result System" - tracking patient outcomes so hospitals could be evaluated on actual results rather than reputation. The medical establishment initially rejected him, even costing him his position at Massachusetts General Hospital. Yet his ideas eventually prevailed, becoming the foundation of evidence-based medicine. This pattern of resistance followed by acceptance has repeated with evidence-based policy, charitable foundation evaluations, and sports analytics. All represent a broad shift from intuition and authority toward quantification and analysis. Even the intelligence community, which has strong incentives to avoid numerical precision in forecasting (to escape blame when wrong), funded the IARPA tournament - suggesting that history may favor evidence-based forecasting in the long run. The post-2008 economic debate between Keynesians and Austerians exemplifies what's wrong with public discourse today. When Bloomberg reporters contacted signatories of a 2010 letter warning Fed Chairman Bernanke that his policies risked "currency debasement and inflation," they unanimously maintained they were right despite contrary evidence. Unlike the productive "adversarial collaboration" between psychologists Kahneman and Klein, these economic debates produce no learning. My proposed solution: key figures could work together to identify precise, testable forecasts that meaningfully probe their disagreements - specifying exact inflation benchmarks and timeframes. Multiple questions would be needed, as complex theoretical disputes can't be resolved by single bets. The goal isn't gloating but learning - recognizing that reality is often more nuanced than either side initially believes. All we need to do is get serious about keeping score.

★★★★★

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』を最後まで読み終えました

100万人以上の学習者に愛用されています

“23日間、毎日使い続けています。今では日課の一部です。”

jayallen

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』の主要テーマ

probabilistic thinking
cognitive bias mitigation
forecasting accuracy
evidence-based decision making
statistical prediction

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』の名言

Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.
Good judgment depends on knowing things, but also on how one thinks.
Our minds rush to judgment and resist changing course, even when wrong.
If it feels true, it is.

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』の登場人物

Philip E. TetlockAuthor and lead researcher of the project
Bill FlackRetired USDA employee and superforecaster
Archie CochranePhysician who championed scientific validation
Sherman KentCIA legend who developed numerical scales
Steve BallmerFormer CEO used as a case study in prediction

著者について

フィリップ・E・テトロックとダン・ガードナーは、意思決定と確率的予測に関する画期的な探求書であるベストセラー『超予測力：不確実な時代に未来を見通す技術（原題：Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction）』の著者です。ウォートン・スクールの教授であり政治心理学の専門家であるテトロックは、数十年にわたる研究を通じて予測への理解に革命をもたらしました。その中には、専門外の人々がインテリジェンス・アナリストを凌駕することを明らかにした画期的な「グッド・ジャッジメント・プロジェクト（Good Judgment Project）」も含まれます。受賞歴のあるジャーナリストであり、『リスクに背を向ける日本人（原題：Risk）』や『How Big Things Get Done』の著者であるガードナーは、複雑な研究を実践的な洞察へと変換する鋭いナラティブ・スタイルをもたらしています。

二人のコラボレーションは、ペンシルベニア大学での活動やグロマイヤー賞を受賞した業績を通じて磨かれたテトロックのアカデミックな厳密さと、データに基づいた物語を抽出するガードナーの才能を融合させています。心理学、行動経済学、認知科学にまたがる本書は、「超予測者」たちがどのように謙虚さ、好奇心、そして分析的枠組みを組み合わせて精度を高めているかを明らかにしています。

『エコノミスト』誌、NPR、『ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナル』誌（同紙は「カーネマンの『ファスト＆スロー』以来、意思決定に関する最も重要な本」と評しました）などで取り上げられた『超予測力』は、20カ国語に翻訳され、ロバート・ルービン元米国財務長官などの人物からも絶賛されています。テトロックとガードナーの著作は、不確実性を乗りこなそうとする金融、政策、テクノロジー分野の専門家にとって、今なお必読の書となっています。

超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標の要約をダウンロード

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コロンビア大学卒業生がサンフランシスコで開発

LOVED BY

1,000,000+ curious minds.

4.7

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1M+ learners

"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."

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"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."

@Chloe, Solo founder, LA

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"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."

@Raaaaaachelw

"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."

@Matt, YC alum

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"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."

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"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."

@djmikemoore

"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."

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"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."

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"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"

@Jaded_Falcon

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@OojasSalunke

"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."

@Leo, Law Student, UPenn

483

"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"

@Cashflowbubu

BeFreedがウェブ上でどのように話題になっているかをもっと見る

コロンビア大学卒業生がサンフランシスコで開発

LOVED BY

1,000,000+ curious minds.

4.7

avg rating

1M+ learners

"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."

@Moemenn

"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."

@Chloe, Solo founder, LA

117

"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."

@Raaaaaachelw

"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."

@Matt, YC alum

108

"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."

@Erin, Investment Banking Associate , NYC

254

"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."

@djmikemoore

"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."

@Pitiful

4.5K

"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."

@SofiaP

"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"

@Jaded_Falcon

201

"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."

@OojasSalunke

"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."

@Leo, Law Student, UPenn

483

"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"

@Cashflowbubu

"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."

@Moemenn

"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."

@Chloe, Solo founder, LA

117

"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."

@Raaaaaachelw

"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."

@Matt, YC alum

108

"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."

@Erin, Investment Banking Associate , NYC

254

"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."

@djmikemoore

"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."

@Pitiful

4.5K

"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."

@SofiaP

"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"

@Jaded_Falcon

201

"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."

@OojasSalunke

"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."

@Leo, Law Student, UPenn

483

"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"

@Cashflowbubu

"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."

@Moemenn

"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."

@Chloe, Solo founder, LA

117

"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."

@Raaaaaachelw

"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."

@Matt, YC alum

108

"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."

@Erin, Investment Banking Associate , NYC

254

"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."

@djmikemoore

"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."

@Pitiful

4.5K

"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."

@SofiaP

"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"

@Jaded_Falcon

201

"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."

@OojasSalunke

"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."

@Leo, Law Student, UPenn

483

"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"

@Cashflowbubu

BeFreedがウェブ上でどのように話題になっているかをもっと見る

今すぐ学習の旅を始めよう

第11章

超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標

概要『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』の概要

1冊の本。さまざまな聴き方。

The Crystal Ball Revolution: How Ordinary People Outpredict Experts

The Deadly Certainty Trap

聴きながら、すべての言葉を目で追えます

The Science of Prediction

The Birth of Superforecasting

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』をもっと深く楽しむ

The Superforecaster Mindset

The Numbers Game

聴きながら、すべての言葉を目で追えます

The Continuous Learning Cycle

The Growth Mindset

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』をもっと深く楽しむ

The Power of Collaboration

The Leadership Challenge

聴きながら、すべての言葉を目で追えます

The Future of Forecasting

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』を最後まで読み終えました

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』の主要テーマ

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』の名言

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』の登場人物

著者について

超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標の要約をダウンロード

他のユーザーのお気に入り

この本に関するよくある質問

What is Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction about?

Who should read Superforecasting?

Is Superforecasting worth reading in 2025?

What distinguishes "foxes" from "hedgehogs" in forecasting?

この学習プランの一部

Study Nate Silver's statistical methods

Aviation weather

もっと見る

1,000,000+ curious minds.

1,000,000+ curious minds.

1冊の本。さまざまな聴き方。

The Crystal Ball Revolution: How Ordinary People Outpredict Experts

The Deadly Certainty Trap

聴きながら、すべての言葉を目で追えます

The Science of Prediction

The Birth of Superforecasting

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』をもっと深く楽しむ

The Superforecaster Mindset

The Numbers Game

聴きながら、すべての言葉を目で追えます

The Continuous Learning Cycle

The Growth Mindset

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』をもっと深く楽しむ

The Power of Collaboration

The Leadership Challenge

聴きながら、すべての言葉を目で追えます

The Future of Forecasting

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』を最後まで読み終えました

他のユーザーのお気に入り

この学習プランの一部

Study Nate Silver's statistical methods

Aviation weather

もっと見る

『超予測力――先を見通す訓練の専門家という名の道標』の概要