
Eight centuries of financial folly exposed: "This Time Is Different" reveals why economies repeatedly crash despite our belief that "we know better now." Bill Clinton called the authors "the most important authorities on financial crashes" - a warning every investor needs.
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A simple phrase has cost humanity more than any war, plague, or natural disaster: "this time is different." These four words, uttered with supreme confidence by bankers, politicians, and investors throughout history, have preceded nearly every major financial catastrophe of the past eight centuries. When housing prices soared in 2006, experts assured us that sophisticated financial instruments had eliminated risk. When Latin American countries borrowed heavily in the 1980s, they believed commodity booms would last forever. When Asian economies thrived in the 1990s, their high savings rates seemed like permanent shields against crisis. Each time, the outcome was devastatingly similar-collapse, panic, and the bewildered question: how did we not see this coming? The answer lies in a dangerous form of collective amnesia that grips societies during periods of prosperity, convincing us that ancient patterns no longer apply to our modern, enlightened age. Financial euphoria creates a peculiar blindness. During boom times, we develop an extraordinary capacity to dismiss historical parallels as irrelevant. The logic seems compelling: we have better technology, smarter economists, more sophisticated regulatory frameworks. Surely the financial disasters that plagued our grandparents can't touch us now. This isn't mere optimism-it's a syndrome that affects everyone from individual homebuyers to Nobel laureates. Consider Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve Chairman who championed financial innovation as a permanent solution to risk. Or the countless Wall Street analysts who genuinely believed that complex instruments like collateralized debt obligations had fundamentally transformed finance. These weren't fools; they were intelligent people caught in a cognitive trap that has ensnared humanity for centuries.
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Creato da alumni della Columbia University a San Francisco

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