
Navigate volatile markets with confidence using Katsenelson's acclaimed sideways market playbook. Called "the bible for investing in tumultuous times" by economist David Rosenberg, this guide reveals why volatility is actually a stock picker's best friend - if you know how.
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Imagine boarding a roller coaster that thrills you with dramatic ups and downs for hours, only to deposit you exactly where you started. This is precisely what a sideways market feels like - exhilarating and exhausting, yet ultimately going nowhere. These markets aren't anomalies but predictable patterns that typically last about 17 years, following extended bull markets. During these periods, investors experience a psychological journey from optimism to frustration as their expectations clash with market reality. The 20th century witnessed this pattern repeatedly. The 1966-1982 sideways market featured five distinct cyclical bull and bear markets, with the Dow Jones fluctuating between 600 and 1000 points multiple times. Similarly, after the extraordinary bull run from 1982 to 1999 that delivered nearly 13x returns, we entered another sideways period that continues today. What drives these extended sideways periods? Two opposing forces cancel each other out: earnings growth pushes stocks up while P/E compression pulls them down. During the 1966-1982 sideways market, corporate earnings grew about 6.6% annually, but P/E ratios simultaneously declined 4.2% per year as investors became increasingly pessimistic, resulting in modest 2.2% annual price increases. This mathematical relationship creates the sideways pattern that frustrates investors who still expect bull market returns.
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