Chapitre 1
The Dragon's Dance: Trump, China, and America's Awakening
In the winter of 2016, a fateful meeting took place in Jared Kushner's Manhattan office. Senior Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi delivered a stern lecture to Trump's transition team, demanding they respect China's territorial claims and adopt Beijing's "new model of great power relations." The American side responded with a mix of defiance and confusion-a chaotic dynamic that would define the next four years. This moment marked the beginning of a fundamental shift in US-China relations, one that would eventually evolve into what many consider a new Cold War.
"Chaos Under Heaven" by Josh Rogin has become required reading for policymakers and business leaders navigating the increasingly fraught US-China relationship. The book shot to bestseller status upon release, with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling it "essential reading" and The New York Times praising its "unparalleled access to the Trump administration's China deliberations." What makes this account so compelling is Rogin's ability to weave together the personal, political, and historical forces that transformed America's approach to its most consequential foreign relationship.
Chapitre 2
The Competing Factions: A White House Divided
From the earliest days of the Trump administration, a fierce battle raged between competing factions with radically different visions of how to handle China. The "Superhawks" like Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro viewed China as an existential threat requiring immediate confrontation. They sought to hasten the Chinese Communist Party's downfall through economic decoupling and ideological warfare. As Bannon bluntly put it during one heated meeting, "We're at economic war with China. It's all about jobs."
The national security hardliners-including Matthew Pottinger, John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, and Mike Pence-wanted robust confrontation without necessarily seeking regime change. They focused on countering Chinese military expansion, technological theft, and influence operations. Pottinger, a former Marine and Wall Street Journal reporter who had spent years in China, emerged as the intellectual architect of this approach, drafting classified strategy documents that would eventually reshape American policy.
Meanwhile, the "Wall Street clique" of Steven Mnuchin, Gary Cohn, and Jared Kushner prioritized financial interests and market access. They viewed China primarily as a business opportunity and feared confrontation would disrupt profitable relationships. This group maintained close ties with business leaders like Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman, who had sold 9.9% of his company to a Chinese government firm for $3 billion and established the Schwarzman Scholars program at Xi's alma mater.
Trump himself oscillated between these factions, sometimes embracing Navarro's trade war rhetoric while simultaneously praising his "very, very good friend" Xi Jinping. This inconsistency created a policy whiplash that confused both allies and adversaries. As one official noted, "Trump was great at flipping over the chess board, but he couldn't set the board back up again."
Chapitre 3
The Kushner Channel: Backdoor Diplomacy
When Trump won the 2016 election, Chinese officials were caught completely unprepared. They had assumed Hillary Clinton would win, allowing Beijing to continue its assertive policies with minimal American resistance. Chinese intelligence and diplomatic services had extensively prepared for a Clinton presidency, developing detailed response strategies based on her known positions and history as Secretary of State. Seeking a friendly contact in the new administration, Chinese Ambassador Cui Tiankai strategically reached out to Jared Kushner through Henry Kissinger, leveraging Kissinger's decades-long role as an informal intermediary between U.S. and Chinese leadership.
This relationship proved immediately valuable for China during several critical moments. On December 2, 2016, Trump accepted a congratulatory call from Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, breaking four decades of diplomatic precedent and enraging Beijing. The call threatened to upend the One China Policy, a cornerstone of U.S.-China relations since 1979. Just hours later, Kissinger met with Xi Jinping in Beijing, having secured Trump's blessing through Kushner to make an overture to Chinese leadership. This quick diplomatic response helped prevent the Taiwan call incident from escalating into a major diplomatic crisis.
Kushner's China connections raised serious ethical concerns among national security experts and government watchdogs. His family business, Kushner Companies, actively sought Chinese investment for their troubled 666 Fifth Avenue property, which carried a $1.2 billion mortgage coming due. During Trump's first visit to Beijing in November 2017, Kushner held an undisclosed meeting at the US embassy with Chinese private equity executives, raising questions about mixing personal business interests with diplomatic duties. Meanwhile, Ivanka Trump received Chinese trademark approvals three times after her father's election, including for voting machines and nursing homes, and her merchandise line heavily relied on Chinese manufacturing facilities in Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces.
The Kushners' personal connections to China extended into their family life. They hired Wendi Deng Murdoch's longtime Chinese nanny, known only as "Xixi," to care for their children and teach them Mandarin. This connection particularly worried FBI counterintelligence officials given Deng's alleged ties to Chinese intelligence services and her friendship with Putin's rumored girlfriend. The children's Mandarin skills became a carefully orchestrated diplomatic tool, with Arabella and Joseph performing traditional Chinese songs and reciting classical poetry for Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan during state summits, addressing them as "Grandpa Xi" and "Grandma Peng." These performances were heavily featured in Chinese state media, presenting a softer image of U.S.-China relations during periods of tension over trade and security issues.
Chapitre 4
The Mar-a-Lago Summit: Promises and Deception
The April 2017 summit between Trump and Xi at Mar-a-Lago represented the first major test of Trump's China policy and exposed fundamental weaknesses in the American negotiating position. Despite explicit warnings from his national security team and China experts about Xi's sophisticated diplomatic tactics, Trump fell into a predictable pattern that Chinese officials had carefully orchestrated. Their initial meeting, scheduled for a brief thirty-minute introduction, stretched well beyond two hours as Xi masterfully deployed a dual strategy: recounting historical Chinese grievances while simultaneously lavishing personal praise on Trump's leadership and business acumen.
The dynamic played out exactly as Trump's advisers had feared. Xi presented a carefully crafted narrative of China's "century of humiliation" by foreign powers, while strategically complimenting Trump's electoral victory and real estate empire. Despite gaining no concrete commitments on trade imbalances, technology theft, or North Korea, Trump emerged declaring they had "developed a friendship" and had "great chemistry." This personal rapport, rather than substantive agreements, became the summit's primary outcome.
The concrete results proved disastrous for American strategic interests. Trump quickly abandoned his campaign promises, shelving threatened tariffs and backing away from his pledge to officially label China a currency manipulator. Instead, he agreed to a vague 100-day trade talk plan and established a "Comprehensive Economic Dialogue" (CED) - precisely the kind of bureaucratic framework that China hawks had warned would allow Beijing to delay meaningful action. Adding to concerns about conflicts of interest, Ivanka Trump's company received three expedited trademark approvals from Chinese authorities during the summit, raising questions about potential quid pro quo arrangements.
The summit's aftermath revealed deep divisions within Trump's team. During a post-summit debrief, National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn enthusiastically promoted the new dialogue framework as a breakthrough. However, in a dramatic moment, Trump interrupted to ask, "Where's my Peter?" - calling on Peter Navarro, his marginalized trade adviser who had been deliberately excluded from key meetings. Navarro, seizing his moment, delivered a scathing assessment: "You've got to be fucking kidding me... Are we really going to do another Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) and just change the letters around to CED?" Trump's approving nod to Navarro's critique suggested a hedged strategy - allowing Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Ross to pursue their diplomatic approach while keeping Navarro's more confrontational stance as a backup plan. This internal tension would continue to shape the administration's China policy, creating uncertainty and mixed messages that Beijing would repeatedly exploit.
Chapitre 5
The Awakening: China's Influence Operations Exposed
While trade negotiations dominated headlines, a quieter but more profound shift was occurring in America's understanding of China's influence operations. A secret group nicknamed the "Bingo Club" began meeting in a redbrick townhouse near Capitol Hill. These participants-including White House officials, congressional staffers, think tank experts, tech industry insiders, and FBI agents-gathered around a common mission: awakening America to China's systematic efforts to shape opinion and policy from within.
The group documented how China was targeting American educational institutions, technology labs, media, industry, stock markets, and politics through a sophisticated mix of information operations, influence peddling, propaganda, and espionage. By operating in gray zones between soft and hard power, China was attempting to change America from within.
The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) emerged as a key organization coordinating these efforts, overseeing hundreds of united front organizations worldwide. Its vice-chairman Tung Chee-hwa-the first chief executive of post-handover Hong Kong and a billionaire shipping magnate-led one of the largest influence operations in America through his China-United States Exchange Foundation (CUSEF).
This foundation had funded research at major Washington think tanks including Brookings, Carnegie, CSIS, and the Atlantic Council, as well as academic programs at institutions like Johns Hopkins. When University of Texas professor Joshua Eisenman questioned CUSEF funding at his institution, he faced retaliation from administrators who had accepted Chinese money.
The CCP also targeted institutions named after former American presidents to gain credibility. Neil Bush, chairman of the George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, emerged as a reliable pro-Beijing voice, defending China during Hong Kong protests while maintaining extensive business interests in China through his company Lehman-Bush.
Chapitre 6
The Tech War: Silicon Valley in the Crosshairs
By 2018, the US-China conflict expanded beyond trade into technology. National security agencies identified two fundamental problems with Chinese tech giants: these firms benefited from stolen US intellectual property and massive government subsidies; and intelligence agencies believed these companies either worked directly with Chinese military and intelligence services or could be compelled to do so at any moment.
The arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou in Canada at the request of the US Justice Department marked a dramatic escalation. Trump was furious when the news broke during his dinner with Xi at the G20 summit, later complaining they had arrested "the Ivanka Trump of China." Xi took two Canadians hostage on trumped-up charges as leverage and repeatedly tried to link easing pressure on Huawei to trade negotiations.
Silicon Valley faced its own dilemmas. Google, despite pulling out of China in 2010 over hacking concerns, was by 2017 building an AI center with Tencent and secretly developing a censored browser called Dragonfly. When Peter Thiel accused Google of "treasonous" activity for working with Chinese entities while refusing US military contracts, Trump promised to investigate. Just eight days later, Mnuchin hastily announced he'd examined the issue and found nothing concerning.
Apple, with $44 billion in annual Chinese revenue and extensive manufacturing there, made significant ethical compromises to appease the CCP. In 2018, Apple moved Chinese user data to servers inside China, surrendering any ability to protect this data from authorities. During the 2019 Hong Kong protests, Apple hid the Taiwanese flag emoji, removed the news outlet Quartz from its Chinese app store, and deleted HKmap.live, an app protesters used to organize.
Chapitre 7
Wall Street's China Gambit: Following the Money
While most industries grew increasingly cautious about Chinese business risks during the escalating trade tensions, Wall Street firms dramatically accelerated their efforts to bring Chinese companies into US financial markets and direct American investments into Chinese firms. Through influential index providers like MSCI, which quadrupled its mainland Chinese holdings in 2019, Wall Street channeled approximately $80 billion to the Chinese economy precisely when the Trump administration was attempting to exert maximum pressure on Beijing in trade negotiations. This timing revealed a striking disconnect between US diplomatic strategy and financial sector activities.
The integration deepened when the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index began supporting 364 Chinese firms, directing an estimated $150 billion into their bonds. Many major pension funds and institutional investors automatically track these indices, meaning American retirement savings were being redirected to Chinese markets with minimal scrutiny. Alarmingly, these investments included companies directly building weapons systems for the People's Liberation Army, firms credibly accused of cyber hacking against US targets, and companies documented as complicit in human rights abuses in Xinjiang and elsewhere. Most concerning was that these serious risks weren't being properly disclosed to American retail investors whose money was flowing into Chinese securities through mutual funds and ETFs.
Roger Robinson, former chairman of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission and Reagan administration official, recognized that China was effectively recruiting "over 100 million American retail investors with a vested financial interest in opposing sanctions against Beijing." Through careful analysis of investment flows, he demonstrated how Chinese companies with serious national security and human rights concerns were being added to major indices without adequate screening. He condemned this as "the greatest financial scandal in world history," where Americans were unwittingly funding China's stated global strategy to technologically and economically surpass the United States.
The situation highlighted a profound irony - while Wall Street firms pursued profits in China's vast market, they were ignoring America's greatest point of leverage: the unmatched power of US capital markets and the dollar-based financial system. China's greatest strategic vulnerability remained its need for access to international financing, yet Wall Street's actions were effectively neutralizing this advantage. Investment banks and asset managers continued promoting Chinese investments even as Beijing's military modernization accelerated and its human rights record deteriorated, prioritizing short-term gains over long-term national interests.
Chapitre 8
The Xinjiang Horror: Genocide in Plain Sight
By 2018, evidence of China's atrocities against the Uyghur population in Xinjiang had become overwhelming and impossible to ignore. Under Xi Jinping's direct orders, authorities had constructed an extensive network of detention facilities that held over one million Uyghurs in what became the largest mass internment of an ethnic-religious minority since World War II. The region was transformed into a sophisticated open-air prison, combining cutting-edge AI-powered surveillance systems, facial recognition cameras, mandatory DNA collection, and digital monitoring of all communications. The state even assigned Han Chinese "relatives" to live in Uyghur homes as government informants, monitoring daily activities and reporting suspicious behavior. Meanwhile, authorities systematically destroyed thousands of mosques, shrines, and other cultural sites, effectively attempting to erase Uyghur heritage.
When UN ambassador Nikki Haley became one of the first high-ranking Western officials to publicly address the Uyghur crisis, Chinese representative Ma Zhaoxu aggressively confronted her with a meticulously prepared dossier. His warning that she "shouldn't talk about the Uyghurs" exemplified China's broader strategy of intimidating foreign critics into silence. When international journalists and diplomats pressed Chinese officials about the mass detentions, Ma and others insisted the camps were "vocational training centers" targeting "criminals" or individuals who they claimed would commit future crimes - a chilling example of pre-emptive punishment based on ethnic profiling.
The case of Vera Zhou, a University of Washington sophomore, illustrated the arbitrary nature of these detentions. While visiting her father in Xinjiang in October 2017, she was arrested for simply using a VPN to submit her college homework - a common practice for students worldwide but deemed suspicious by Chinese authorities. Without formal charges or legal representation, she was imprisoned for five months in an internment camp where she shared a cramped room with eleven other women under constant video surveillance. Their daily routine consisted of forced Mandarin language instruction, mandatory memorization of Communist Party propaganda, and endless repetition of patriotic songs praising Xi Jinping. Prisoners were never allowed outdoors and lived in constant fear, as guards implemented a brutal system that rewarded inmates for informing on each other's minor infractions or private conversations.
Despite mounting evidence of these human rights violations, the international response remained muted. In the United States, while Congress pushed for targeted sanctions against Chinese officials responsible for the Xinjiang atrocities, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin repeatedly blocked these efforts through bureaucratic delays and procedural obstacles, prioritizing trade negotiations over human rights concerns. On the global stage, China successfully introduced a Human Rights Council resolution that emphasized "dialogue" and "cooperation" rather than accountability for human rights violations. This resolution, which effectively provided diplomatic cover for ongoing abuses, passed with broad support from developing nations, with only the United States voting in opposition. This demonstrated China's growing ability to reshape international human rights norms and institutions to protect its interests.
Chapitre 9
The Pandemic: China's Cover-up and America's Response
The coronavirus pandemic became the final breaking point in US-China relations. On January 28, 2020, a high-level Chinese doctor secretly told Pottinger that the virus was far worse than SARS-"this is 1918," referencing the deadly pandemic that killed 50 million worldwide. The doctor revealed half the cases were asymptomatic with human-to-human transmission across multiple provinces.
O'Brien and Pottinger immediately briefed Trump: "This is the single greatest national security crisis of your presidency." Trump responded with "Holy fuck" and, despite unanimous opposition from officials including Fauci, sided with O'Brien and Pottinger to implement a China travel ban on January 31.
China's systematic cover-up had begun immediately. Though they alerted WHO about "unidentified pneumonia" on December 31, they simultaneously censored social media references to it and silenced whistleblowers like Dr. Li Wenliang. Authorities sanitized the Huanan seafood market without collecting samples, destroying potential evidence about the virus's origin. Despite mapping the genome by January 2, officials suppressed this crucial information until researchers defied orders and released it publicly on January 11.
Most critically, Chinese officials knew about human-to-human transmission by January 14 but waited six days to communicate this externally, while millions traveled for Lunar New Year celebrations, accelerating the outbreak. In a February 6 call, Xi deliberately misled Trump, claiming China had the outbreak under control, that the virus wasn't a threat beyond China, and would likely disappear with warmer weather.
Questions about the virus's origins intensified when US embassy cables from 2018 revealed concerns about biosafety at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). American diplomats had warned that the WIV's research on bat coronaviruses posed potential public health risks due to inadequately trained technicians operating their BSL-4 lab. As US-China tensions increased throughout 2018, American diplomats lost access to the lab, eliminating their visibility into these concerning activities.
Chapitre 10
Legacy: A Fundamental Shift in US-China Relations
As the 2020 election approached, US-China relations had deteriorated to their lowest point since the historic normalization in 1979. Trump's administration, despite its often contradictory and chaotic approach, catalyzed a fundamental transformation in America's understanding of the China challenge. The decades-old engagement-focused policies, which had defined bilateral relations since Nixon's opening to China, became politically and practically impossible to resurrect, regardless of which party controlled the White House.
Trump's China legacy proved deeply complex and multifaceted. His administration correctly identified critical issues that previous administrations had downplayed or ignored: Beijing's systematic intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, industrial subsidies, and growing military assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. The administration's China Initiative highlighted concerns about academic espionage and technology transfer, while tariffs forced a conversation about supply chain dependencies. However, Trump's erratic leadership style, public feuds with allies, and tendency to personalize diplomatic relationships undermined the effectiveness of these policies.
The administration's dysfunction manifested in several ways. Rather than building an international coalition to confront China's trade practices, Trump simultaneously launched trade disputes with the EU, Japan, and other potential partners. His withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) abandoned a powerful tool for creating economic alternatives to China in Asia. The administration's messaging often confused security concerns with economic grievances, making it harder to build focused international responses to specific challenges.
Nevertheless, Trump's presidency marked an irreversible shift in the global conversation about China. The COVID-19 pandemic became a catalyst for examining previously overlooked aspects of China's influence, from its control over medical supply chains to its manipulation of international organizations like the WHO. Trump's confrontational approach forced public discussion of how the Chinese Communist Party had systematically influenced democratic institutions through economic leverage, academic partnerships, and elite capture in business and politics.
The pandemic particularly highlighted vulnerabilities in global supply chains and China's willingness to use economic coercion for political purposes, as seen in its trade actions against Australia and other countries that called for investigations into the virus's origins. Trump's focus on China's technology ambitions, particularly regarding 5G networks and semiconductor manufacturing, revealed the extent of strategic competition in critical industries.
Moving forward, democratic nations face a complex challenge requiring multiple coordinated responses. This includes strengthening domestic institutions against foreign influence, addressing critical supply chain vulnerabilities, investing in technological innovation, and protecting public health infrastructure. American leadership must be rooted in democratic values practiced at home, while avoiding the weaponization of China policy for domestic political gain. The government needs structural reorganization to address this generational challenge, while carefully avoiding anti-Asian racism or xenophobia.
Success will require difficult trade-offs between economic interests and security concerns, between short-term costs and long-term strategic advantages. Until America and its democratic allies develop a coherent, sustainable approach to managing China's rise, global instability and strategic competition will likely intensify. The challenge requires a delicate balance between competition and cooperation, between deterrence and engagement, all while maintaining democratic values and open societies.
