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The Pakistan Connection and the Islamabad Summit 7:08 Jackson: You mentioned earlier that Pakistan was the one who actually brokered this. It’s interesting because they aren't usually the first country you think of as a Middle East mediator. How did Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif pull this off?
7:21 Nia: It was a frantic, eleventh-hour diplomatic push. Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir—the head of Pakistan’s army—were basically on the phone with Trump and the Iranian leadership simultaneously. Sharif literally posted on X, formerly Twitter, asking Trump to hold off on the "destructive force" he was planning to send.
7:39 Jackson: And Trump actually listened? He credited them directly in his Truth Social post.
7:43 Nia: He did. It’s a rare moment of successful mediation in a very dark time. But Pakistan isn't doing this just to be nice. They are in an impossible bind. They have a massive Shia population—the second-largest in the world—and a long-standing defense pact with Saudi Arabia.
7:59 Jackson: So if they side with Iran, they lose the Saudi money that keeps their economy afloat. If they side with the U.S. and the Saudis against Iran, they risk a sectarian civil war at home.
8:11 Nia: You’ve hit the nail on the head. They are "trapped," as one analyst put it. They need this war to end more than almost anyone else. That’s why the delegations are headed to Islamabad this Friday, April 10th. It’s supposed to be the start of "conclusive" negotiations.
8:27 Jackson: But what’s actually on the table? Iran’s 10-point plan sounds like a total non-starter for the U.S. I mean, they want all U.S. troops out of the region and compensation for war damages?
8:39 Nia: It’s a huge gap. Trump called the plan "workable," which shocked a lot of people, but the State Department is being much more cautious. The Iranian plan asks for the lifting of all sanctions and for Iran to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz. Essentially, they want the U.S. to pay them to stop fighting and then leave.
8:58 Jackson: And the U.S. wants the total elimination of the nuclear program, which the Iranian plan doesn't even mention. It’s like two people trying to negotiate a car sale, but one is talking about the price and the other is talking about who gets to keep the garage.
9:13 Nia: Right. And while they talk in Islamabad, the "shadow war" continues. China is reportedly giving Iran material support behind the scenes because they can’t afford an Iranian collapse—they need that energy security. Russia is also watching closely, enjoying the fact that the U.S. is distracted from Ukraine.
9:29 Jackson: So the Islamabad summit is this high-stakes theater. On one hand, you have the "sagacious gesture" of a ceasefire. On the other, you have these deep, structural disagreements that haven't moved an inch since the war began in February.
9:43 Nia: And let’s not forget the domestic pressure on both sides. In Tehran, hard-liners are screaming "Death to the compromisers!" in the streets. They see any deal as a betrayal of the "victory" they’ve claimed. Meanwhile, in D.C., Democrats are calling for Trump’s removal, saying his threats to "wipe out a civilization" are incitement to war crimes.
10:01 Jackson: It’s a very narrow path for Sharif to walk. He’s essentially trying to build a bridge over a volcano. If the Friday talks don't show real progress on the "big" issues—like the nuclear program or the troop withdrawals—that two-week clock is going to run out very fast.