第9章
The Future of Transportation
The electric car, once popular in the early days of motoring, is experiencing a revival as concerns about fossil fuel pollution grow. Electric vehicles briefly dominated the early automobile market, with Pope Manufacturing Company's Columbia being America's bestselling car in 1897. By 1900, electric vehicles were nearly as popular as steam-powered ones, with gasoline cars trailing behind.
The Electrobat taxi service, launched in Manhattan in 1897 by inventors Pedro Salom and Henry Morris, represented a promising vision for electric vehicles. Their innovative battery-swapping system allowed cabs to operate continuously. When financier William Whitney backed the venture, forming the Electric Vehicle Company, it briefly became America's largest automobile manufacturer in 1899.
Beyond electric vehicles, another automotive path not taken was renewable ethanol fuel. The Ford Model T, launched in 1908, was designed as a flex-fuel vehicle capable of running on either gasoline or ethanol. However, Civil War taxes on alcohol (with no exemption for fuel) made kerosene derived from crude oil the dominant fuel almost overnight, setting the stage for petroleum's century-long dominance.
The electric car's revival traces back to the oil crisis era when Stanley Whittingham at Exxon pioneered lithium battery technology in 1972. Sony commercialized the first lithium-ion battery in 1991 with added safety features, but at $10,000 per car battery pack in 2002, they remained too expensive for electric vehicles. GM's EV1, introduced in 1996 using lead-acid batteries and later nickel metal hydride, developed a loyal following before being controversially discontinued in 2003.
This inspired entrepreneurs Martin Eberhard and Elon Musk to found Tesla Motors, whose first vehicle, the $100,000 Roadster, transformed perceptions by emphasizing performance and range rather than compromise. Tesla has since followed Musk's master plan of starting with premium vehicles before moving downmarket, becoming the world's most valuable automaker despite modest production numbers.
Electric vehicles have become inevitable due to climate change regulations, with many countries pledging to ban combustion engine sales by 2030-2040. Road vehicles contribute 17% of global carbon emissions, making electrification significant for climate goals. However, electric vehicles are only truly zero-emission when charged with renewable electricity.
On July 1, 1914, L.P. Draper sparked another transportation revolution by picking up a streetcar passenger in his Ford Model T for a nickel. This "jitney" concept-named after slang for a five-cent piece-spread explosively across America, with 62,000 jitneys operating by summer 1915. They offered convenience, speed, and freedom from overcrowded streetcars, particularly appealing during an economic downturn when car owners needed income.
The early 21st century witnessed the rebirth of ride-sharing through smartphone-enabled platforms. These modern services rely on mobile internet and GPS technology to connect riders with drivers, while drawing inspiration from jitneys and shared minivan taxis found worldwide.
In 2008, Logan Green and John Zimmer founded Zimride, an intercity carpooling service using Facebook to build trust between riders and drivers. Meanwhile, Uber launched in San Francisco in 2011, initially offering premium black car service before expanding to ordinary vehicles. Lyft emerged as a direct competitor, and both companies eventually introduced shared ride options.
The DARPA Grand Challenge of 2004 marked the beginning of modern autonomous vehicle development, mirroring how the Paris-Rouen race of 1894 launched the automotive era. DARPA sought vehicles that could navigate without special infrastructure for military convoy use. The first competition was disastrous-vehicles crashed, got stuck, or caught fire, with the best traveling only 7.4 miles. Yet by the second challenge in 2005, five vehicles completed a more difficult 132-mile desert course, with Stanford's "Stanley" taking first place.
Building a fully autonomous car involves solving three key problems: perception (understanding the surroundings), prediction (anticipating what will happen), and driving policy (controlling the vehicle). Most autonomous vehicles use multiple sensors-cameras, radar, and lidar-to perceive their environment, though Tesla notably relies only on cameras and radar.
Proponents of autonomous vehicles envision a future with "zero crashes, zero emissions, and zero congestion." With 1.25 million annual global road deaths, AVs could potentially eliminate the 90% of fatalities caused by human error. Beyond safety, self-driving cars promise independence for those who cannot drive-the elderly, young, and disabled.
Despite decades of failed predictions about the automobile's demise, signs now suggest we've reached "peak car." Even Bosch's CEO acknowledged in 2020 that global automotive production may have peaked in 2017. China, which drove 21st-century car sales growth, has seen demand slow as ride-hailing explodes. Western countries show similar trends: miles driven per vehicle and per person peaked in 2004 in America and have declined to 1990s levels. Driver licensing among young Americans has plummeted-from 46% to 25% among sixteen-year-olds and 92% to 77% for twenty-to-twenty-four-year-olds.
The future of urban transport isn't any single mode but a seamless integration of multiple options through smartphones. Helsinki's Whim app exemplifies this "mobility as a service" (MaaS) approach, connecting trains, trams, buses, bikes, taxis, e-scooters, and car rentals through one interface with pay-as-you-go or subscription options.
The smartphone, not any particular transport mode, is the true successor to the car, creating an "internet of motion" that frees us from car-based transport monocultures. History teaches us three key lessons: First, avoid transport monocultures-they're inflexible and their consequences become locked in. Second, expect the unexpected-all technologies have unintended consequences, especially transportation technologies that reshape physical space. Third, be mindful of data exhaust-as transport systems generate vast amounts of mobility data, privacy concerns are emerging around who can access information about where people travel.
As we stand at another transportation crossroads, similar to 1895, we have the chance to learn from history and build a future not dominated by cars but designed around human needs, environmental sustainability, and the flexibility to adapt to whatever comes next.
