The Infinite Risk of IT Projects: Bent Flyvbjerg’s Research
Explore Bent Flyvbjerg’s 2026 study on the infinite risk of IT projects. Learn why Information Technology cost risk is uniquely unpredictable and prone to failure.
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IT cost risk doesn't follow a bell curve; it follows what’s called a power-law distribution, characterized by 'fat tails,' where one single data point can render the average meaningless and a few massive, company-killing disasters dominate the entire statistical landscape.
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Gennemgang af det vedhæftede dokument 'The Uniqueness of IT Cost Risk' med fokus på de væsentligste pointer, uoverensstemmelser og kontroversielle fund i Flyvbjerg et al. undersøgelsen.
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According to the research by Bent Flyvbjerg, IT projects are uniquely and pathologically unpredictable compared to other categories like solar farms or roads. While most engineering projects follow standard probability, IT projects belong to a world of infinite risk where conventional forecasting often breaks down. This statistical fickleness means that software updates or large-scale systems can scale into massive cost overruns that threaten the survival of major corporations and government agencies.
Bent Flyvbjerg is a researcher who led a landmark 2026 study analyzing a staggering 11,011 projects across 23 different types. His team identified a statistical monster within the Information Technology category, proving that IT isn't just risky—it is uniquely unpredictable. The research highlights that IT project risk is fundamentally different from traditional construction or engineering, backed by some of the most rigorous statistical evidence ever assembled regarding project management and cost overruns.
The research team examined a massive dataset of 11,011 projects to understand the nature of cost risk and project failure. These projects spanned 23 different categories, including nuclear power plants, the Olympics, and road construction. By comparing these diverse sectors, the study was able to isolate IT as a category where the scale of unpredictability is significantly higher, leading to the conclusion that IT projects face a level of risk that is almost infinite in nature.
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Von Columbia University Alumni in San Francisco entwickelt
"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."
"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."
"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."
"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."
"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."
"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."
"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."
"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."
"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"
"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."
"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."
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"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."
"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."
"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."
"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."
"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."
"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."
"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."
"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."
"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"
"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."
"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."
"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"
"Instead of endless scrolling, I just hit play on BeFreed. It saves me so much time."
"I never knew where to start with nonfiction—BeFreed’s book lists turned into podcasts gave me a clear path."
"Perfect balance between learning and entertainment. Finished ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ on my commute this week."
"Crazy how much I learned while walking the dog. BeFreed = small habits → big gains."
"Reading used to feel like a chore. Now it’s just part of my lifestyle."
"Feels effortless compared to reading. I’ve finished 6 books this month already."
"BeFreed turned my guilty doomscrolling into something that feels productive and inspiring."
"BeFreed turned my commute into learning time. 20-min podcasts are perfect for finishing books I never had time for."
"BeFreed replaced my podcast queue. Imagine Spotify for books — that’s it. 🙌"
"It is great for me to learn something from the book without reading it."
"The themed book list podcasts help me connect ideas across authors—like a guided audio journey."
"Makes me feel smarter every time before going to work"
